pslewis

""" "What If" Forecast - What if the Tories overtook Labour in votes?

This is a special UK-Elect forecast examining "What would happen if the Tories overtook Labour in votes?"

It is again based on the new Scottish parliamentary boundaries, and intended to represent one realistic possibility for what will actually happen at the next General Election. It is, however, not our current forecast - simply intended to examine in detail what would happen if the Tories overtook Labour in terms of votes.

The percentages used for this simulation were Con 36%, Lab 35%, Lib Dem 20%, Nationalists 2.5%. In this election simulation we assume that a maximum of 10% of people would be prepared to vote tactically against Labour in the right circumstances, something that we regard as a realistic possibility (it should be emphasised that this figure is not the number that we think will vote tactically, simply those who would be prepared to do so if they lived in a constituency where the circumstances were right.)

This simulation shows that even with tactical voting against them, and 1% less votes than the Conservatives, Labour could still win easily.""""

Interesting reading, indeed!! My £10k is safe as houses me thinks!!

Pete