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Old 18 May 2014, 05:04 PM
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powerwrx
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how accurate are long term weather forecasts... lets say 2 weeks from now its due to be sunny for 3 days for example..can we rely on that being true or not.
Old 18 May 2014, 05:46 PM
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Defiantly not. Most weather forecasts aren't accurate beyond a couple of days! Remember that "great storm" that was apparently predicted across the entire of the UK? Never happened did it..
Old 18 May 2014, 05:48 PM
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which 'great storm' was that.. I seem to remember a pretty bad one not so long ago.. I recon some parts are still cleaning up after it too
Old 18 May 2014, 05:55 PM
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Not the massive floods, the one predicted before that. Regardless though, I certainly wouldn't trust a reliable forecast beyond 2-3 days.
Old 18 May 2014, 05:57 PM
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5 days is about the limit with the current computers/modelling

After that it is just a "best guess" (not to be too flippant about it)

It also depends on the current stability of the atmosphere, so a big stable Atlantic low tracking across from the Caribbean - is fairly easy to predict

Last edited by hodgy0_2; 18 May 2014 at 05:59 PM.
Old 18 May 2014, 05:58 PM
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ok cheers.. theres hope yet then
Old 18 May 2014, 07:40 PM
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They got it wrong in my area,north Surrey.Just one day ahead!!
On Friday they said Saturday would be hot & sunny.It was dull,overcast & muggy all day.

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Old 18 May 2014, 07:49 PM
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Pollution from London maybe
Old 18 May 2014, 08:34 PM
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Very nearly always several hours out with wind
Old 19 May 2014, 10:17 AM
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Ours is quite often wrong. They talk about the east coast, but forget (don't understand) that at high tides, a huge volume of cold water rushes 30 miles or more inland, up the River Humber, the River Trent and the River Ouse, bringing cold air with it.
We then get cloud forming.......NOT forecast.
Old 19 May 2014, 11:16 AM
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you will always get local anomalies

one that spring to mind - from my manic windsurfing days is the "Minehead Hole"

this describes the fact that there is often blue sky over the Bristol/Minehead end of the Bristol channel

drive down the M5 towards Exeter - look right and it will nearly always be blue sky - this means any form of a North Easterly wind will be accelerated several forces down the channel - so often windy in Minehead when everywhere else in the country is in the doldrums

the remit of the Met/Weather forecasting on national and regional news is simply to "let the housewife's know whether to hang the washing out"

anything more detailed and you need to use specialised services - that basically use the same Met data

PS edited to add - ask any coastal fisherman, sailer, pilot etc etc and they will say we have some of the best weather forecasting in the world

as a maritime nation we needed it for our survival and growth as a major industrialised economy (and empire)

but hey you can't fight "anti-knowledge"

Last edited by hodgy0_2; 19 May 2014 at 12:00 PM.
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