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Old 27 June 2011, 01:35 PM
  #91  
alloy
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Originally Posted by tony de wonderful
How did the financial system get like this, where the default of a minor European nation threatens to upset everything?

I suppose you could argue that fiscal union would have stopped countries like Greece overspending but otoh it surely shows some dysfunction in the way markets assess risk etc?
Things are different this time round (imagine a £ for every time you herd that hey ).....you have the single Euro currency, you have the backdrop of the past 2/3 years, you have economic growth issues to contend with, there is inflation......Financial system has and always will be so intermingled as risk is diseminated amoungst all the different participants, 9/10 this is an effective route its only the black swan events that questions this such as Lehman's and now potentially Greece.....
Old 27 June 2011, 01:44 PM
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Originally Posted by alloy
Things are different this time round (imagine a £ for every time you herd that hey ).....you have the single Euro currency, you have the backdrop of the past 2/3 years, you have economic growth issues to contend with, there is inflation......Financial system has and always will be so intermingled as risk is diseminated amoungst all the different participants, 9/10 this is an effective route its only the black swan events that questions this such as Lehman's and now potentially Greece.....
Sure but euro Sovereigns defaults are not black swan events from the historical 'long view'...they very much do happen every know and again, certainly prior to WW2 anyway. The market can't just say this was never envisioned.

Same as banks going under surely?
Old 27 June 2011, 02:03 PM
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Originally Posted by tony de wonderful
Sure but euro Sovereigns defaults are not black swan events from the historical 'long view'...they very much do happen every know and again, certainly prior to WW2 anyway. The market can't just say this was never envisioned.

Same as banks going under surely?
Good point, it's not euro soverign's though its the fact that they are all at the mercy of the single euro currency and the problem is almost self perpetuating.....sov. debt is high due to all the bank bailouts, so country defaults the banks fail.....the banks fail the soverign needs to finance more debt......one of the dominos falls the whole house comes down around it....
which is why time is the only asset the ECB and EU are trying to create....as we know time is a great healer......

With the single currency that isolated nation can't turn on their own printing press, rebase their currency etc like they have in the past.....the one thing to thank britain for right now is our independence found in the GREAT British Pound...
Old 27 June 2011, 03:27 PM
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Arguably it would be better to fail with less liability in the first place than to perpetuate the inevitable. Not sure I have a great deal of faith in the time strategy, but WTF do I know. Personally I'd like to see some EU bureacrats getting the bullet, maybe not literally though.
Old 27 June 2011, 03:52 PM
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Originally Posted by GlesgaKiss
Arguably it would be better to fail with less liability in the first place than to perpetuate the inevitable. Not sure I have a great deal of faith in the time strategy, but WTF do I know. Personally I'd like to see some EU bureacrats getting the bullet, maybe not literally though.
Which is what Deutsche Bank said today when they tendered appetite for private sector role in helping resolve Greece situation....the answer.....no one wants to throw good money at bad......

All time does is give the financial system the opportunity to find itself on firmer ground to absorb the shock.....to default now would essentially write off all of the stimulus and effort that we have seen firm up equities and bouy the economy off it's lows over the past 2/3 years.....
Old 27 June 2011, 05:08 PM
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Originally Posted by alloy
Good point, it's not euro soverign's though its the fact that they are all at the mercy of the single euro currency and the problem is almost self perpetuating.....sov. debt is high due to all the bank bailouts, so country defaults the banks fail.....the banks fail the soverign needs to finance more debt......one of the dominos falls the whole house comes down around it....
which is why time is the only asset the ECB and EU are trying to create....as we know time is a great healer......
I don't think time will allow Greece to find a political solution, it's not Germany or a Nordic country which would knuckle down and do what is neccesery to cut costs, raise more tax etc...or at least not to the Turbo-Thatcherist level (which we are told they need to go to).

Anyway it's funny how we are seeing these consequences of the Bank bail-outs, one wonders how they will end? I guess if you know that you could make a lot of cash?
Old 27 June 2011, 05:31 PM
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Time wont heal greece, nothing will.....time might, just might, heal the financial system enough to endure a defualt though....that's my point...
Old 27 June 2011, 05:39 PM
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Originally Posted by alloy
Which is what Deutsche Bank said today when they tendered appetite for private sector role in helping resolve Greece situation....the answer.....no one wants to throw good money at bad......

All time does is give the financial system the opportunity to find itself on firmer ground to absorb the shock.....to default now would essentially write off all of the stimulus and effort that we have seen firm up equities and bouy the economy off it's lows over the past 2/3 years.....
Originally Posted by alloy
Time wont heal greece, nothing will.....time might, just might, heal the financial system enough to endure a defualt though....that's my point...
Ahh, I see.
Old 27 June 2011, 05:44 PM
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Silver £5 per per ounce Wow dip yer wick
Old 15 July 2011, 08:27 AM
  #100  
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Silver ‘Breaking Higher,’ May Rally Back to $50/oz: Wantrobski 7/14 20:10
Janney Montgomery Scott technical analyst Dan Wantrobski says silver could rally initially to $41-$43/oz, and possibly back to $50/oz in the weeks ahead.
Makes call following “bullish cross” of 10-DMA above 30- DMA combined with negation of recent head & shoulders top
Downloadable chart of silver with DMAs: {G NEWS 2576 <go>}
Says weekly chart of silver shows it’s back above long-term trend line support at $35; implication is “huge” as it signals potential increase to >$70/oz (using “measured move” off of $10 low for forecast)
Downloadable weekly chart of silver:{G NEWS 2577 <go>}
Says silver mining stocks to consider along with silver ETF (SLV) are EXK, HL, LBSV
Old 15 July 2011, 10:18 AM
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so buy silver ?

or do I keep a hold of my gold ?
Old 02 August 2011, 10:52 PM
  #102  
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Gold @ $1660. How do you like that, Dingdongler!?
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