Silver (maybe time to dip yer bread)
22 June 2011, 05:13 PM
#66
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Didnt realise commodity and currency traded on the stock market either......you're adding lots of value to this thread
Last edited by alloy; 22 June 2011 at 05:14 PM.
22 June 2011, 06:31 PM
#69
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Uncertainty? To say the least...the consequence of Greece defaulting is massive, the domino effect is exponentially compounding....this issue though has been rearing its ugly head for past 18-24mths, it is not "news" it is however convenient as to masking the issue of US debt ceiling and end of QE2.....all quite convenient to guide the market lower and allow the printing press to be fired up Stateside for round 3 while blaming other economies for the requiement to do so......
It's these times when i take stock and thank that i play the market so nimbly that these bigger issues are more catalysts to my next swing as opposed to drivers of my P&L and positioning. Having said that enduring worst month so far.....without passing the buck though thats through one of the portfolios more aggressive high risk strategy's coming under pressure and deviating from it's historical path....
Euro...you concerned about its strength in the mean time or it's ultimate demise?
It's these times when i take stock and thank that i play the market so nimbly that these bigger issues are more catalysts to my next swing as opposed to drivers of my P&L and positioning. Having said that enduring worst month so far.....without passing the buck though thats through one of the portfolios more aggressive high risk strategy's coming under pressure and deviating from it's historical path....
Euro...you concerned about its strength in the mean time or it's ultimate demise?
22 June 2011, 06:54 PM
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BA I bought some yday at 306.5, look at the 5 year chart draw a fib grid and I think if memory serves me correct then 306.4 is the 50% fib level, perhaps 300 is a little greedy
Greece default is inevitable it's just a case of how structured it is and ensuring the financial system has the protocol to absorb the realisation as best as possible. The ECB have funding in place so it's not a case of if they get bailed out but when, and then all this does is delay the default. In the meantime you have rating agencies downgrading Europe, ( moodys and S&P) and the cynic in me would suggest they are more influenced by the FED as opposedto theECB. Asset allocations ultimately are driven by these rating agencies so there becomes less appetite for euro and euro gov debt so that money gets liquidated and then pumped into US treasuries, thus creating demand for the dollar and in the grand scheme of things helping permit QE3 being fired up......all seemingly pretty convenient......just me joining the dots, although they aren't numbered
Greece default is inevitable it's just a case of how structured it is and ensuring the financial system has the protocol to absorb the realisation as best as possible. The ECB have funding in place so it's not a case of if they get bailed out but when, and then all this does is delay the default. In the meantime you have rating agencies downgrading Europe, ( moodys and S&P) and the cynic in me would suggest they are more influenced by the FED as opposedto theECB. Asset allocations ultimately are driven by these rating agencies so there becomes less appetite for euro and euro gov debt so that money gets liquidated and then pumped into US treasuries, thus creating demand for the dollar and in the grand scheme of things helping permit QE3 being fired up......all seemingly pretty convenient......just me joining the dots, although they aren't numbered
22 June 2011, 07:02 PM
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If Greece is to default then does that mean that the EU must refuse to bail them out first, unless they go back to a local currency on their own accord?
If EU can't (or won't) bail out Greece, then what of the other P.I.G.S? Must the Euro necessarily collapse or shrink back to be just a core of strong countries?
If EU can't (or won't) bail out Greece, then what of the other P.I.G.S? Must the Euro necessarily collapse or shrink back to be just a core of strong countries?
22 June 2011, 07:02 PM
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If Greece is to default then does that mean that the EU must refuse to bail them out first, unless they go back to a local currency on their own accord?
If EU can't (or won't) bail out Greece, then what of the other P.I.G.S? Must the Euro necessarily collapse or shrink back to be just a core of strong countries?
If EU can't (or won't) bail out Greece, then what of the other P.I.G.S? Must the Euro necessarily collapse or shrink back to be just a core of strong countries?
22 June 2011, 07:11 PM
#74
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BA I bought some yday at 306.5, look at the 5 year chart draw a fib grid and I think if memory serves me correct then 306.4 is the 50% fib level, perhaps 300 is a little greedy
Greece default is inevitable it's just a case of how structured it is and ensuring the financial system has the protocol to absorb the realisation as best as possible. The ECB have funding in place so it's not a case of if they get bailed out but when, and then all this does is delay the default. In the meantime you have rating agencies downgrading Europe, ( moodys and S&P) and the cynic in me would suggest they are more influenced by the FED as opposedto theECB. Asset allocations ultimately are driven by these rating agencies so there becomes less appetite for euro and euro gov debt so that money gets liquidated and then pumped into US treasuries, thus creating demand for the dollar and in the grand scheme of things helping permit QE3 being fired up......all seemingly pretty convenient......just me joining the dots, although they aren't numbered
Greece default is inevitable it's just a case of how structured it is and ensuring the financial system has the protocol to absorb the realisation as best as possible. The ECB have funding in place so it's not a case of if they get bailed out but when, and then all this does is delay the default. In the meantime you have rating agencies downgrading Europe, ( moodys and S&P) and the cynic in me would suggest they are more influenced by the FED as opposedto theECB. Asset allocations ultimately are driven by these rating agencies so there becomes less appetite for euro and euro gov debt so that money gets liquidated and then pumped into US treasuries, thus creating demand for the dollar and in the grand scheme of things helping permit QE3 being fired up......all seemingly pretty convenient......just me joining the dots, although they aren't numbered
Knew I should have just gone for it - if you think something looks good then why should it be cheaper! But I am a d*ck at times. Might just leave it now anyway (set it for 10 days). It just looks good at 300 because I can imagine at least 20% upside over the next year or two as well as the dividends.
22 June 2011, 07:28 PM
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If Greece is to default then does that mean that the EU must refuse to bail them out first, unless they go back to a local currency on their own accord?
If EU can't (or won't) bail out Greece, then what of the other P.I.G.S? Must the Euro necessarily collapse or shrink back to be just a core of strong countries?
If EU can't (or won't) bail out Greece, then what of the other P.I.G.S? Must the Euro necessarily collapse or shrink back to be just a core of strong countries?
22 June 2011, 07:44 PM
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What do you mean by contagion? I presume you mean lenders become more reluctant to lend to other weak nations....and they possibly start defaulting like dominos, weakest first? And then this maybe starts hurting other seemingly non-related markets as banks get scared to lend money to anyone, not knowing where their own losses are going to end? Fear rules?
Is the GBP safe then do you think? Obviously - worst case scenario - a euro depression is good for no-body but the British Gov's credit line should be one of the last to be closed off?
Is the GBP safe then do you think? Obviously - worst case scenario - a euro depression is good for no-body but the British Gov's credit line should be one of the last to be closed off?
22 June 2011, 07:45 PM
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22 June 2011, 07:47 PM
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Asset allocations ultimately are driven by these rating agencies so there becomes less appetite for euro and euro gov debt so that money gets liquidated and then pumped into US treasuries, thus creating demand for the dollar and in the grand scheme of things helping permit QE3 being fired up......all seemingly pretty convenient......just me joining the dots, although they aren't numbered
It's interesting... interesting and a bit scary. What is worrying is this idea that the inevitable is being delayed and, in the process, making the situation worse. Like Greece, where the bailouts just mean adding to obligations to default on, ultimately wreaking more havoc.
22 June 2011, 07:53 PM
#79
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Something else I was surprised to read about was the fed urging fiscal responsibility. Also a comment from one of the presidents saying something along the lines of "when people lose faith in the U.S. there will be no warning, rates will just skyrocket and the crisis is upon you". They usually try to play down any negativity like that.
But for the time being, clearly the way the world works allows the U.S. to get away with what they do.
But for the time being, clearly the way the world works allows the U.S. to get away with what they do.
22 June 2011, 08:05 PM
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What do you mean by contagion? I presume you mean lenders become more reluctant to lend to other weak nations....and they possibly start defaulting like dominos, weakest first? And then this maybe starts hurting other seemingly non-related markets as banks get scared to lend money to anyone, not knowing where their own losses are going to end? Fear rules?
Is the GBP safe then do you think? Obviously - worst case scenario - a euro depression is good for no-body but the British Gov's credit line should be one of the last to be closed off?
Is the GBP safe then do you think? Obviously - worst case scenario - a euro depression is good for no-body but the British Gov's credit line should be one of the last to be closed off?
GBP....BOE said today they don't rule out further asset purchasing programs (QE) GBP got hammered today after this announcement. Nothing is safe anymore......
22 June 2011, 08:08 PM
#81
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Actually edited to give you the and you are welcome.
It is not a spelling mistake, it's a grammatical error....reading your post though it seems you have your own grammatical gremlins to battle before correcting others, so have another
and you are welcome.It is not a spelling mistake, it's a grammatical error....reading your post though it seems you have your own grammatical gremlins to battle before correcting others, so have another
22 June 2011, 08:14 PM
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QE3, now you're talking... but what will they call it this time? I read something the other day where apparently Bill Gross had suggested that they might target a certain rate on a specific maturity and just basically say they will act to keep it there. So not called quantitative easing/stimulus but doing exactly the same thing under a different guise. And under that guise they would presumably just buy as many as they need to as long as they could avoid any ill effects, which would permit them to go beyond any kind of $600 billion set plan.
It's interesting... interesting and a bit scary. What is worrying is this idea that the inevitable is being delayed and, in the process, making the situation worse. Like Greece, where the bailouts just mean adding to obligations to default on, ultimately wreaking more havoc.
It's interesting... interesting and a bit scary. What is worrying is this idea that the inevitable is being delayed and, in the process, making the situation worse. Like Greece, where the bailouts just mean adding to obligations to default on, ultimately wreaking more havoc.
Doesn't matter what they call it stateside, if it creates liquidity and stability it's stimulus as the market knows it. It's nice to just have it announced in detail with structure....
22 June 2011, 09:35 PM
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Contagion in this instance is with respect to the fact that all countries have exposure to each others debt on their national balance sheet, if you will. In the event of default Greece can't honour it's bonds so say for example Spain owns Greek bonds which are redeemed in 6 months if Greece has defaulted then Spain aren't getting their money back so when a Spanish bond gets redeemed they now have less than they expected to have to service this debt, putting these other countries on the periphery into the Greek boat as it sails now. Compound this issue as the subsequent effects are felt......
GBP....BOE said today they don't rule out further asset purchasing programs (QE) GBP got hammered today after this announcement. Nothing is safe anymore......
GBP....BOE said today they don't rule out further asset purchasing programs (QE) GBP got hammered today after this announcement. Nothing is safe anymore......
Why are countries buying bonds of other countries BTW?
Here's a good chart, we've had defaults before in Europe, with degrees of consequences.
23 June 2011, 09:28 AM
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Countries issue bonds to essentially raise money they otherwise couldn't from their own citizens. Private investors, funds, banks, insurance companies, Gov. et al all buy into these international bonds at varying degrees as investment opportunities. Bonds are very basically debt whereas stocks are equity....
27 June 2011, 03:12 AM
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Last edited by Jamie; 27 June 2011 at 03:13 AM.
27 June 2011, 10:00 AM
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27 June 2011, 10:30 AM
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Back on track, Silver closed last week on the 12 month up-trend line, this morning opened here and has spent the session so far trading below it having touched and recovered from support at 33.55 it either needs to re-assert to the upside pronto or the pennant formation i mentioned is validated and the continued breakdown resumes after this period of consolidation. Dollar Index at the same time has broken out of its 12month downtrend however 76 remains a double top so ideally we would like to see this level taken out on the upside to reaffirm bullish USD......I think from here best strategy is neutral on both silver and USD with the view to shorting silver on the restest of the uptrend line should USD breakout of 76.....as always NOT INVESTEMTN ADVICE DYOR and good luck
27 June 2011, 12:59 PM
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No not the first default by any means, its the issue of the stability of the financial system to weather it this time round and also the complication of a single Euro currency!
Countries issue bonds to essentially raise money they otherwise couldn't from their own citizens. Private investors, funds, banks, insurance companies, Gov. et al all buy into these international bonds at varying degrees as investment opportunities. Bonds are very basically debt whereas stocks are equity....
Countries issue bonds to essentially raise money they otherwise couldn't from their own citizens. Private investors, funds, banks, insurance companies, Gov. et al all buy into these international bonds at varying degrees as investment opportunities. Bonds are very basically debt whereas stocks are equity....
I suppose you could argue that fiscal union would have stopped countries like Greece overspending but otoh it surely shows some dysfunction in the way markets assess risk etc?