Dingdongler

john banks

fast bloke

You have been warning us since 2002. Even allowing for boom bust, it will need several busts to get us back to 2002. Prices peaked in January 2008 in NI. The average increase in the previous 12 months was 58%. Previous year was 39% and the years before that average 20% since 1994.Since the bust, prices have gone down around 25% a year for two years, then declined slowly at about 2% on a year on year basis.So I buy a house in 2002 for 100k.2003 - 120k (plus 20%)2004 - 144k (plus 20%)2005 - 172k (plus 20%)2006 - 206k (plus 20%)2007 - 286k (plus 39%)2008 - 451k (plus 58%)2009 - 338k (minus 25%)2010 - 253k (minus 25%) Maybe you can be ar5ed to work out how many more years we need to have a 25% drop to get back to 2004 levels, and more interestingly, maybe you can tell us how may 25% drops it will take us to get back to the point that you first predicted 'the crash'

john banks

That is an impressive rise and fall already, the mainland and Scotland in particular has been rather more sober. You'd be rather upset if you bought near peak when many were because they thought it was a once way bet and hence prop up the prices well beyond any sensible value. I don't think has seriously begun yet on the mainland and am not buying. I first became concerned in late 2006, and the big drops have been prevented by ZIRP whilst inflation is still a problem.

Dingdongler

Thanks. Can you recalculate all those figures taking inflation into account please?

fast bloke

I can calculate that if you took advice from PMSLewis, your fortune would now be worth FASQ........

pslewis

Yeah, right ....

Here's another heads-up for you as I am clearly the only one here with his pulse on the market .....

The Estate Agents on the South Coast have started ringing me again.

I was looking for another home, retirement home, on the South Coast during the last downturn .... I didn't have to sell, so the falling market was an opportunity for me.

The falls were nothing really, not many properties for sale and sellers holding out. The prices recovered and the Estate Agents (who had been ringing me daily) stop calling. Until the last 3 weeks where their interest in me as a buyer not a seller and with finance secured has racked up remarkably ...... clearly they are trailing through their previous contacts as buyers have disappeared.

This next year will see houses lose the 35% in value which I fully expected last time around, properties are flooding to the market and buyers have left. That can only mean one thing - BIG price falls.

LeeMac

iTrader: (1)

knowing what you are buying helps you more than knowing the market

fast bloke

The words 'retirement' and 'with finance secured' concern me. You shouldn't be borrowing at you age.

Dingdongler

Agreed. We may not see 35% in nominal terms but could well do in real terms. The auction houses have cooled off as well over the last few months

pslewis

Finance Secured simply means that the money is sat waiting - it does not mean that it has been borrowed. It may be shares realised, long term investments cashed in, gold sold ....

fast bloke

Then you should be looking for a cheap deal as a cash buyer. If you tell anyone you have finance secured, then you will be an interesting prospect but nothing more. As a cash buyer, you should be able to negotiate a healthy discount offering a quick exchange with no pesky surveyors to tell them their property is only worth a tenner!

fatherpierre

I still wouldn't buy a shed in this financial climate, unless it was with cash and for a long-term live in.

Prices where I am (Surrey) have risen to silly levels (asking prices) and nothing is moving. Sale prices, from checking zoopla are way off asking prices, showing people's delusional thoughts when they list their houses initially.

I'm happy renting my house for around 65% of the cost of an interest only mortgage p, and letting my money talk out of the UK.

The UK is currently no place to risk one's money.

Dingdongler

[quote=fatherpierre;9512859]I still wouldn't buy a shed in this financial climate, unless it was with cash and for a long-term live in.

Prices where I am (Surrey) have risen to silly levels (asking prices) and nothing is moving. Sale prices, from checking zoopla are way off asking prices, showing people's delusional thoughts when they list their houses initially.

I'm happy renting my house for around 65% of the cost of an interest only mortgage p, and letting my money talk out of the UK.

The UK is currently no place to risk one's money.[/q uote]


Where? Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Dubai, USA??

pslewis

Seems the House Prices are now falling back again and the pace of fall is picking up.

Auction houses are empty - reserves not being met.

Many more properties on the market than during the last fall.

This is the start of the real correction many predicted in 2008, when it simply didn't happen.

30% fall anyone?

My money is on a 10% fall the this year, 15% next year and a 10% fall in 2012 ... levelling off as the next election looms large in the mirrors.

Jay m A

iTrader: (2)

Pete "Nostradamus" Lewis at it again!

Dingdongler

Agree with that bit. Those that sold in the last year have done well, they managed to capitilise on the pent up demand that had built up and cheap money. Now everybody is putting their house on the market and money is getting a little harder to borrow.

fast bloke

Most sales that complete now are either forced, or sold at asking price. Pete - Can you quote me this months land registry stats? (Land registry stats are real completion prices) and when you have done that, can you quote me the land registry stats stripping out the forced sales (I.E. repossesions?)

njkmrs

Wimpey in the news this week saying they are seeing strong sales ,and also selling at 10% ish more than last years were selling at .!!!!!


I think the Interest Rates were held at .5% again today !!!!!

Is your cup half full fellas ??????

pslewis

A HouseBuilder saying that Houses are selling like HotCakes? Shocking News!

My Subaru dealer said that they were selling the WRX HatchBack well and no discounts were on offer ..... 3 weeks later they were selling for £14k!!!

So, you will fogive me for ignoring the vested interests and instead, believing what my own eyes are seeing

Aaron1978

iTrader: (12)

Two housebuilders that we work for are selling houses like......well hotcakes

A fair few are selling before the foundations are even in!

With another site starting for a 3rd builder, we are busier now then 5 years ago in the housing market! In total we have 8 sites for house builders and another 2 that are leisure parks that have £130k log cabins for sale.

Taylor Wimpey know a lot more than some on here.

I see countless 'expert' opinions on snet, when the reality is no one really knows what will happen until it happens. Some people including experts from the goverment/previous goverments and indeed people on snet like to make big predictions in order to make themselves look knowledgeable in the event it comes true.

Aaron

pslewis

Errrm, excuse me .......

I am the oracle, the voice of reason, the be all and end all ..... everything I say is true and correct.

I deal in facts not fantasy ...

fatscoobfella1

iTrader: (1)

You missed out that your on crack.........

pslewis

Your or You're ???

Even on crack I can spell

Aaron1978

iTrader: (12)

Are you sure

njkmrs

Confirmed .

john banks

Whose share price is one sixteenth of what it was around the time of peak house prices?

The clearly know what they're doing and you should all listen to them

GlesgaKiss

There are some people on here that know the fundamentals of economics though. Government predictions are different, because that's more like propaganda/bullsh*t to keep people happy.

Even if they are selling like hotcakes as you claim, that's not something we want back. Look at the problems it caused in the first place! There was a bit of an attempt to keep things propped up to avoid the pain, but that will come to an end eventually. People are just trying to delay the inevitable.

Taylor Wimpey don't know anything. They know how to build houses, that's it. They lost £19.5 million in 2007, almost £2 billion! in 2008, and £700 million in 2009... after 'quantitative easing'. Their share price is now less than 10% of what it was trading at before the crash; so they're not exactly economic oracles.

GlesgaKiss

Oops, beaten to it. 'One sixteenth' too, John's clearly better at maths than me.

john banks

I program a lot in low level languages, so I notice values like 32p and approx 512p