That's easy for you to say!!

 

Easy to say, but I'm also putting my life savings behind my conviction.

 

What were you convicted for?

And couldn't you get off by pleading insanity

 

a mirror image of my position and conviction John -- but hope all goes well for you


(Well my 10-15 year view anyway)

 

Likewise, I'd perhaps share your view with the deal you got. There seem to be very local patterns, some Scottish housing seems as stretched in valuations as almost anywhere in the UK now. Daft time to buy here IMHO.

 

Seems that plenty are buying and driving up prices ......

"The number of mortgages granted to house buyers hit a 22-month high in October, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML).

It said 55,300 mortgages were granted to buyers, the highest number since December 2007.

This was a 9% increase from September and up 43% from October last year.

The CML said mortgage lending to buyers had now doubled since its low point in January this year, but remortgaging was still very subdued"

Whilst there are more buyers than sellers the prices will continue to climb .... and I simply cannot see that situation changing anytime soon.

The 'experts' are saying that Interest Rates will not increase at all until way into 2011, if then. With that scenario, house prices will not fall - but climb and climb.

 

Edited for accuracy.

 

Imagine if SSU was flying your aeroplane With half the appropriate amount of fuel he'd be telling anyone who would listen how well the plane was gaining altitude until he got half way to New York...

 

Im a plasterer and take around £800 each week. Often more. Luckily i havent been hit by the recession, working more now than i was 2 years ago, no paycut either! There must be 3 or 4 big housing developments on the go around here at the moment, and they ARE getting sold. Things are rosey here.

 

 

Blame it on global warming.

 

 

Hugely dependant on area I reckon, as Pete said property in south of Hampshire seems to be selling well (at cheaper end of market at least where I've been looking), but also have a place in east Suffolk, not much sems to be selling there, prices probably still dropping a bit if anything.

 

Imagine if John Banks was flying your aeroplane ...... with the fuel left behind on the runway, he would be telling everyone that a Fuel Tanker will be flying by anytime soon!

What's it like John, to be sat on money earning diddly squat in interest and watching property prices soar?

 

Sorry Pete, but that's poor. Really poor.

 

Very comfortable indeed!

You will of course blame it all on the Eton boys, but they will have to sort out this scorched earth policy that your Labour friends have created.

 

But, John, you are buying someone else's house for them ..... whilst you earn 3% Gross on your money.

I really hope you are right and house prices fall again next year (as I want to buy) - but I don't think they will .... luckily I win either way, as I haven't sold any property I hold either.

At what point will you step in again? And if you cannot get back in, what will you do?

 

It has never been a question of being able to get back in, I could have bought what I wanted at the peak, but for more than I wanted to pay, not more than I could pay. I still own a third share in a medical practice/building since 2002, but not a house. I'm certainly not seeing things running away from me locally! Everything is against a sustainable recovery in UK house prices for those who can think for themselves IMHO. Bubbles do not pop in a linear fashion, especially when there is political interference.

Some of the things I'm looking for to step back in... recovery in prices on good volumes when real interest rates are positive (as they will have to be to make long term personal and government lending make sense or avoid trashing sterling further), quantitative easing has finished, taxes and unemployment are near a peak, house price to earnings ratio has undershot its long term average (if it did with smaller previous bubbles it will now), capitulation has arrived, rising rents on my target properties that are higher than the interest rate on new lending. We're nowhere near to this situation and have a fake recovery in whole economy, which hasn't even come out of recession despite all the money borrowed.

This "recovery" will store up worse things to come. The piper has not been paid.

 

One Year on from the original post .......

What is your guess for the Housing Market in 2010?

My prediction is a small drop of about 5% as more properties come to the market.

 

Your prediction is??? last year your prediction was the houses were going to drop by say 40% ??? and people like yourself were going to clean up buying all the cheap properties??? How many did you buy I'm sure I said about a year ago the housing market was picking up so you had to grab a bargain then

The housig market is only just above the bottom of the market so there is still time for a bargain but not the ones you wanted.

 

I'll hold my hand up and say that I thought the market would drop much more than it did - in fact, most analysts thought the same.

When it reached March 2009, I could see things selling and the Estate Agents stopped ringing me everyday ..... something was happening.

 

The housing market is still bad, most peole in the trade think its gonna get better next year say 3rd quarter. I would love that to happen as it means I'll actually make more cash But realistically I think its going to be the year after which means the building trade has suffered this recession for 4years. I think it will take say another 2 years for prices to rise properly. Which in turn means this recession has lasted say 6 yrs or it will have for me

 

But on the previous page of this thread you gave me the exact date that rates would rise in June 2010. I've made plans on the basis of that, now you say it's 2011!

 

John Banks, I agree there is pain to come this year/next ie rising unemployment, rising taxes, national deficit, rising interest rates etc.

But what if, the plan is to inflate our way out of trouble? Then in nominal terms, house prices will not really fall much from here. Didn't something like that happen in the 70's when the nominal values did fall somewhat, but the fall in real values was huge?

John, if you agree that's a real possibility, what are/would you do with your cash to best position yourself for this scenario?


Thanks

 

When are the next quarterly figures out to show were in recesssion still ??


mus be soon

 

26th Jan IIRC

 

I honestly think that this year will not say any significant improvement..In house prices,unemployment etc..

Just looking in my local area,house prices dont seemed to have dropped very much at all,but nothing seems to be selling.Whereas,3 years ago houses around here sold within weeks if not days..
There has been a couple of genuine bargains over the last 6 months and they have gone within a fortnight,and one never made the market but was sold within the village.

I think were far from out of recession,but if someone can give me pointers and info that we are i would be happy to listen.

 

With a National debt around £1 trillion and having printed an extra £200 billion with no backing, I wonder how long it will be before this country actually manages to make anything out of the GNP by the time the interest on the National Debt and the PFI's etc is paid off for the year.

Les

 

exchanged on our new house in December, and will complete on the 21st Jan

A very good deal all round

I would always have my money in good property

PS prices in Notting Hill Gate are back to 2007 levels, on the strenght of a healthy banking sector

 

Guess things down in the big smoke are different to the rest of the country..

I have 2 friends that have lost out on property in the last couple of years,not massively but lost out non the less.

One down by 20k and the other 35k..Both were buy to let and could only get sporadic tenancy on both,so decided to sell.