The average price of a UK home fell to levels not seen since August 2004, according to the Halifax. (this was the opening post on this thread).

You selling for its value as at November 2005 is clear evidence that the market has recovered somewhat.

It's true that there is very little on the market and that is driving up the prices of anything half decent ...... a harsh winter killing off a few at the top would help supply - I like your thinking

 

I'm, well me and the g/f, are due to complete on our first house tom (I did post some time back in this thread). Our offer got accepted back in June for 10k off the asking price (we got it for 165k).

We consider ourselves lucky really, and quite proud of our selves too , as we managed to save enough between us to get just over a 25% deposit, although we have been saving for like 4 years or something!!

 

well done sti -- i remember the posts


(I hope and believe) you will look back and see it as the best investment you ever made

 

I'm in a similar boat to you.

BUT... I have put my money in gold (risen nicely) and have moved area and am happy to rent for the long term.

I see pain to come for UK plc once the election is over. Interest rates must rise at some point and when they do markets will correct.

UK plc has the most leveriged house prices in the world and is heading for a crash once QE stops. There's nothing to support the average.

 

By the time Interest Rates rise, which of course they will - the opposite of that is impossible, the world climate will be different.

We will be in strong growth, inflation will be at a healthy level, pay rises will rise to retain the average multiples .... I doubt very much that the housing market will crash - it didn't crash through the worst economic conditions the world has ever seen - they are unlikely to stumble if Interest rates are double/treble.

House prices seem remarkably robust ..... not that I like it that way!

 

It is negative real interest rates holding the market up.

 

Nationwide’s chief executive Graham Beale also painted a very gloomy picture for the building society’s outlook, forecasting a ‘very difficult trading environment’ with continuing low interest rates and a weakening housing market.

‘The growth in house prices over recent months appears to be driven by lack of supply, and growth in unemployment throughout 2010 will inevitably exert downward pressure on house prices,’ said Beale.

 

Wow, really? What a genius!

 

Yep, dept of the bleedin' obvious, but posted purely as a counterpoint to the continuing green shoots nonsense... and despite the b soc's chequered recent histories, I would still back his knowledge of the coalface versus the great wisdom of SN's resident genii

 

The housing market will be fairly stagnant over the next few years. House prices can't keep growing with the current levels of unemployment, unless ofcourse a large % of these people were in government housing to start with.

 

How much will we get taxed do you think?

Les

 

Lack of supply is the interesting bit as there has been & will "always" be a long term shortage of houses as they can't / won't build em quick enough + population is destined to hit 70m sometime soon I only ever see apartments being built these days anyway ...

How does unemployment effect house prices?

TX.

 

You seriously want me to answer that?

 

A few more people on the dole queue

TX.

 

-People earning less
-Uncertainty leading to people staying put
-Banks wanting higher deposits due to lending becoming more risky

Or have I got it completely wrong?

 

do the sort of people who are dumped on the dole really affect house prices? -- i am not convinced -- do they own houses?

uncertainty is a bigger negative driver though

people with cash (yes they do exist even in deepest recession - in fact they probably have more) will still buy houses

short term maybe there will be a dash for quality (rental investment and home purchase)

people always need somewhere to live

unless we go for the sort of tent city model as seen in the states

 

Uncertainty was all the rage this time last year and look at what happened to the price of houses. And that was before people started losing their jobs. I am not saying that unemployment directly effects the price of houses, but throw it in with a mix of high deposit mortgages, companies closing down or cutting back, rises in the price of fuel and the impending rise of interest rates, house prices will have no where to go but down. Or at the very least, they will stay at similar levels for the next few years but with many ups and downs.

 

I'm just waiting to exchange on a BTL flat down the road from me that had a reasonable price reduction with the owners being keen to sell. Had to sell my P1 to help with the deposit though Prices seem to have stabilised here for the moment, most of the flats I looked at are now SSTC. Would like to buy another next year but the 25% deposit for a BTL mortgage is hard to fund without re-mortgaging further.

 

hmmm my mate has been told he has no building work left after christmas ?

 

My brother has work for the next two years. Really don't get this economy.

 

When & why do you think they'll go up fella?

TX.

 

Interest Rates will start their climb in July 2010.

 

Good luck with your purchase, where are you getting 75% LTV BTL mortgages from? Keen to know.

And what kind of fees are involved?

 

Thanks for the heads up mate. Any idea what date in July 2010?

 

Just to remind you that I asked you what our taxes might be next year, and how much will inflation rise too?

Les

 

16th

 

Les

Depends really.

If Labour are in power still, then the rich and super rich will pay more to balance the books. The Bankers will be held to account, the MP's will be held to account and we will sell off our shares in the Banks at a massive profit.

If the Tories are in power, then the Rich will be laughing, the Super Rich will be richer, the Bankers will be rubbing thier hands and the MP's will be stealing more of our money for DuckHouse, Moats and the like. The Shares in the Banks will be sold to the market at a knock-down price and the common man on the street will be paying a huge hike in taxes, receiving a poor NHS and his children will be starved of an education.

That's pretty much how I see things panning out.

 

Thanks mate. Mortgage is from Birmingham Midshires, 2yr fix at 5.4%, IIRC fees are 2% of purchase price.

 

Thanks for that.

 

are you really sure on that -- or is it just another guess