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House Prices Now At 2004 Levels

Old Aug 28, 2009 | 04:05 PM
  #1291  
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SSU is just making himself out to be considerably richer than 'yow'! As per fecking usual!
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Old Aug 28, 2009 | 04:05 PM
  #1292  
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What's the betting that Pete lives in his mums basement and collects trolleys for a living?
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Old Aug 28, 2009 | 04:14 PM
  #1293  
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Originally Posted by kingofturds
What's the betting that Pete lives in his mums basement and collects trolleys for a living?
He probably doesn't even work! Just claims off the social like everyone else.
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Old Aug 28, 2009 | 05:27 PM
  #1294  
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I must apologise to Pete..

While at my parents house today,i found 27k down by the side of my mums setee..

She didnt even realise that they had it...

She finally admitted that it wasnt as much as a struggle as she had thought to bring up 4 kids on a miner's and shop assistants wage..

Now at 73 she said she feels "such a fool"....

Happy days....... Sandbanks here i come!!
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Old Aug 28, 2009 | 05:43 PM
  #1295  
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My eyes are quite open to my local economy, my wife having had two periods of unemployment in the last year hardly leaves you relatively untouched. Some of her colleagues from her first redundancy have still not found jobs. The employer had built the whole village in the 19th century. This company failure was finance/energy price driven. She has now retreated to the public sector (which will not be secure in the near future either), as there really isn't much else around here.

Houses I was looking at in 2006 were around a town which I believe had the highest increase in property prices in the UK in the year or so before. The selection of houses around here is poor value except compared to the South East of England which commands higher incomes to compensate.

In my postcode, detached houses have dropped from £448k to £394k in the last year. I've paid out £10k in rent in that time to have only one other house in my postcode, coastal views, 2/3 acre, tree lined drive, Victorian stone built farmhouse. I'm laughing to be honest.

I am still mainly in cash, my defensive shares have not leapt up in value so I'm holding them. Having just paid a tax bill and bought a GTR I'd be 20% loan to value to buy the sort of house I want now which despite my recent spending is better than a year ago, but I'm waiting. Whether I'm right or not we'll have to see, but recent events have not changed my opinion at all.

I'm not a house bull or bear, I'm simply playing the cycle. I've already played this once by buying, paying off my first mortgage (except a token amount to keep a facility open and have the bank keep the deeds) by 30, selling and saving many times more. I have little need for wishful thinking. I have tasted being mortgaged relatively heavily, being mortgage free and being a tenant. I'm a lot more free thinking than you might suspect, but I have very strong views on how this market will go (I ignore sheepish blips and short term predictions) and am putting everything behind my conviction.

Originally Posted by Mitchy260
JB, you are obviously an intelligent man but i must say you need to stop over analysing everything and open your eyes as to what is going on around you.

I say that in the nicest possible way as I never understood your reasoning for your housing market predictions due to the fact you are located north of the border in an area of the country that has remained relatively untouched from this ''worst recession in history''

I have stats and figures straight from the ROS (Scotlands LR) if you would like to state otherwise. Scotland has always fared better than their neighbours down south in all the previous housing crashes, it is exactly the same this time round. (If we dont see the big boom, we cant feel the big bust afterwards, it is as simple as that)

I have facts and figures, Nationwide is now down less than 14% from the peak of Oct 2007, the figures posted yesterday are identical to what they were this time last year. Yes that is right, Aug 2009 = Sept 2008. A full 12 months of ups and downs and we are at the exact same point we were a year ago.

If you have a look in the news today, this is going further than just the Nationwide index, the LR reported a 1.6% rise in England and Wales today. Halifax figures in the last few months have been showing positives too.

I live in Aberdeenshire, the housing market has not budged an inch since 2007, they are just not dropping. Similar in Edinburgh where my folks live.

Personal debt levels rising, unemployment rising, government debt rising. Why has the housing market not plummeted like you believed it would already? QE of £150bn and IR of 0.5% i suspect will be your response??

I, as the majority of mortgage holders have fixed rate mortgages so we have not benefitted from these all time low IR's. When IR's start rising again, it's obviously only going to effect those on trackers or SVR's. I suspect you will assume that people will not be able to afford the jump back upto 5% but why? If i was paying a £1000pm FR mortgage that was coming to an end and it was to be replaced by a £400pm SVR rate, the £600pm difference would either be saved or it would be used to overpay and reduce the capital. I would still be budgeting for that £1000pm regardless. I suspect the majority of mortgage holders will share my thinking so waiting on IR's rising for the effect to be felt on the housing market i would say is unwise as i dont believe it will have a big impact.

Unemployment, was at 1.55m pre recession, its now at 2.45m 2yrs in so less than 1m people unemployed as a result so far. Are they all housing market linked or are they council house dwellers? Who knows, but i do know, the numbers are insignificant on the whole so will have little or no bearing on what the housing market does.

I feel its wishful thinking on your behalf now, things are changing, a few countries are now out of recession, we probably will be by the end of the year too.

Nationwide tell us a house priced today was exactly the same as it was 12mths ago. Come on John, wake up and smell the coffee. Housing market will always be based upon affordability. An inwork couple earning an average of £40k can support these £160k average house prices no problems. (£40k made up of 1 average earner and 1 PT earner)

I obviously have a bullish view, you have a bearish view. It doesn't make my view any more credible than yours or vice versa, but I am pretty certain that if i had asked you this time last year what your prediction for Aug2009 would be in comparison to Sept 08, im pretty sure that you would have guessed a further 20% down? If you had asked me, i would have stated what i did (This would all be over by Q2 2009 and house prices would stagnate for a few months before slowly rising again) You cannot ignore hard fact data Nationwide/Halifax and LR

Apologies for the long post, i just cannot see the day where we purchase homes on our credit cards anytime soon I guess old Gordon is not the fool we all thought he was eh

Over and out JB
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Old Aug 28, 2009 | 05:59 PM
  #1296  
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I may as well also mention that I don't believe the unemployment figures, and that Aberdeen is a microclimate dependent on oil.

"Affordability" is an idea propogated by financiers to build asset bubbles. It is believed by mindless sheep. It is one thing to believe that the interest payments may be contained for a while. It is quite another to pay off the huge capital, and quite another to believe house prices will rise forever.

Yes I do believe that QE and artificially low rates (negative in real terms) are holding this up and have prevented many from feeling the real shock so far. Government interference will make it worse in the end. Why is cheap money the solution to gluttony on previous cheap money?

When will people invest in productive capacity rather than misallocating capital into unproductive asset bubbles? Why can't most people think beyond the level of an average sheep?
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Old Aug 28, 2009 | 06:48 PM
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When I say, "Most 50 year olds have £27k in savings, as a minimum" is simply because everyone I know are in that situation. Now, they may well be priviledged, I don't know, but it is the world I live in.

I cannot, however hard I try, accept that a 50 year old - who is reasonably intelligent and moneywise - doesn't have any savings ..... it just doesn't add up, sorry.

Let's assume that 'you' receive £3000 net per month from work (a 50 year old professional), have no mortgage (at 50 you shouldn't really have one), no other loans, clear your CC Bill, pay for usual bills and living a sensible life ...... that leaves £2000 a month - £24k a year, every year - in 48 months you have £100k ..... without really trying.

So, the idea that £27k in savings is dreamland is poppycock!

Last edited by SunnySideUp; Aug 28, 2009 at 06:51 PM.
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Old Aug 28, 2009 | 07:03 PM
  #1298  
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[QUOTE=SunnySideUp;8909071]When I say, "Most 50 year olds have £27k in savings, as a minimum" is simply because everyone I know are in that situation. Now, they may well be priviledged, I don't know, but it is the world I live in.[QUOTE]

That would be dreamworld would it.. ??

I dont even know anyone on 50k+ a year..

The average salary is a lot lower than that...

I would suggest that a majority of mortgage owners hadnt finished paying off there mortgage at 50.

And you assume that people's outgoings are approx £250 a week without mortgage ??

Im convinced you live at home with your mum and you have never paid a bill in your life.
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Old Aug 28, 2009 | 07:12 PM
  #1299  
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I did say a 'Professional' 50 Year Old!! And £50k a year is on the very bottom of pay - or should be ..... name a Professional on less than that!

I'm sure I'm not wrong .... maybe you are just not in-touch with the reality of being 50+?
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Old Aug 28, 2009 | 07:25 PM
  #1300  
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Originally Posted by SunnySideUp
I did say a 'Professional' 50 Year Old!! And £50k a year is on the very bottom of pay - or should be ..... name a Professional on less than that!

I'm sure I'm not wrong .... maybe you are just not in-touch with the reality of being 50+?
You are beyond contempt.
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Old Aug 28, 2009 | 07:28 PM
  #1301  
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Yep you did say professional...

I honestly dont know of anyone personally who is in a professional occupation..I take it you mean doctor,solicitor,dentist,accountant etc etc ?

Are you implying that everyone you know who is 50+ years of age is a professional on over £50,000 a year ?

And non of them have a mortgage ?

And they all have over 30k savings ?
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Old Aug 28, 2009 | 07:58 PM
  #1302  
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Originally Posted by fatscoobfella1
Yep you did say professional...

I honestly dont know of anyone personally who is in a professional occupation..I take it you mean doctor,solicitor,dentist,accountant etc etc ?

Are you implying that everyone you know who is 50+ years of age is a professional on over £50,000 a year?
Yes, those professions - plus, Chartered Engineers and Nuclear Scientists.

And, yes, when 50 years of age they are all on £50k+

That's the work world I live in - day in, day out ... so, to me, it is standard.

Originally Posted by fatscoobfella1
And non of them have a mortgage?
I would say 'most' don't have a Mortgage ... there are those for whom Divorce has changed their Mortgage situation ... but, their debts won't be too great.

Originally Posted by fatscoobfella1
And they all have over 30k savings ?
Yes, certainly, if they are still married to their first partner, they will have considerably more than £30k ... remember that their partners also work (and they could well be professionals too!)

I stand by my convictions.

Last edited by SunnySideUp; Aug 28, 2009 at 08:01 PM.
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Old Aug 28, 2009 | 08:12 PM
  #1303  
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Well i guess you live in a world that no other snetter does...

It amazes me how you have so much intimate details of your friends finances..

I know if i asked one of my mates how much he had in the bank,he would tell me to eff off..

Unless thats what rich people do...tell each other how much they have got,seeing who is the richest over Pimms and ice..

Im afraid your assumptions and figures just dont stack up Pete..

People who are chartered engineers and nuclear scientists would still be paying off mortgages on there £400k+ houses well into there 50's..

If they had,they wouldnt even be working into there 50's.......
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Old Aug 28, 2009 | 08:24 PM
  #1304  
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Originally Posted by fatscoobfella1
Well i guess you live in a world that no other snetter does...
Not your world, clearly - but a bit presumptious of you to speak on behalf of everyone else!

Originally Posted by fatscoobfella1
It amazes me how you have so much intimate details of your friends finances..

I know if i asked one of my mates how much he had in the bank,he would tell me to eff off..

Unless thats what rich people do...tell each other how much they have got,seeing who is the richest over Pimms and ice..
We discuss finances, where to put cash, what shares to buy, should we buy more property to rent, what pay rates we are on, cash deposits or which investments, etc. ..... shared information on where to Invest.

I'm staggered you don't do the same?

Originally Posted by fatscoobfella1
People who are chartered engineers and nuclear scientists would still be paying off mortgages on there £400k+ houses well into there 50's..
Absolute rubbish .... you state you know ZERO Professionals and you make a staement like that!? These are the people I know .... and a mortgage is a distant memory for most.

Originally Posted by fatscoobfella1
If they had,they wouldnt even be working into there 50's.......
EH?

If you pay off your Mortgage you stop working - is that what you're saying?

If so, then you live in a completely different world - professionals work because they ENJOY it ... the high pay is the reward!!!
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Old Aug 28, 2009 | 08:49 PM
  #1305  
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Ha ha,

I know a teacher,does that count ??

So by saying "mortgages are a distant memory for most",that implies that some of your professional friends still do have mortgages.. yes??

With all them savings in the bank and that huge income,i would have thought it prudent to pay it off ?

I will stop working as soon as i can...Im aiming for 50 myself,then i might just potter about and restore old classic motorbikes for a bit of pocket money....Will give me time to enjoy my life instead of dying in the workplace or on the golf course........god forbid..

There is nothing like an old guy doddering about the workplace,still thinking he can cut it with people 20 years his junior.....Its laughable....
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Old Aug 28, 2009 | 08:59 PM
  #1306  
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The old guy knows things the kiddies haven't a clue about ....... he is, by far, the most valuable asset a company has!

I did say that some Professionals, through Divorce, still have a mortgage at 50.

I cleared my mortgage by the time I was 40 .... I had one of the very first Offset Mortgages, best move I ever made.
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Old Aug 28, 2009 | 09:50 PM
  #1307  
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Beat you by 3 years...

That said,im not looking to buy property on the south cost... I live up "north" where houses are cheaper..
I will live my life happily,never move or strive to get another house.Just have a good life and get out of working as soon as i can.I think im in a very priviledged position.I have never had a quid given to me,and im on a relatively low wage..(£15 an hour)..

So i dont need much income to live..very frugal you see.although i do have the odd extravagance.

So you having a mortgage to buy your property on the coast or are you paying cash ?
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Old Aug 28, 2009 | 10:40 PM
  #1308  
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£15 an hour isn't bad .... £32k a year ....

I live a simple life, hence I end up saving quite a lot - not trying, it just happens - trying to get it to generate any real return is difficult at the moment.

I also haven't received a penny from anywhere ..... we are more alike than you may imagine!
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Old Aug 28, 2009 | 11:05 PM
  #1309  
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I have no ambitions to be the richest corpse in the graveyard

I work with people who earn a lot of money.......but would never have a pint with them in a pub because they are insufferable, probably like SSU LOL


Somewhere I've got a pic of my last P40 saved for posterity...........I'll post it if you'll do the same Pete

Shaun
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Old Aug 28, 2009 | 11:11 PM
  #1310  
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You're a Dentist .... I have yet to meet a poor Dentist .... I know a few! They work 3 days a week and get returns far higher than most people who work 6 days!!

I don't need to prove to anyone my worth, those who need to know, know
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Old Aug 28, 2009 | 11:19 PM
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SSU

No...........I'm not a "dentist"

I'm an NHS Consultant in Restorative Dentistry covering the needs of half a million people in Cumbria and the Scottish borders.

I earn (statistically) £65 grand a year less than John Banks and £44 grand a year less than an NHS dentist with his practice..

The offer still stands about posting our respective P40's LOL

Shaun
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Old Aug 28, 2009 | 11:24 PM
  #1312  
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If you feel the need to prove something, please feel free .... like I said, those who need to know my worth, know it.

I do not entertain 'curiosity' unless it pleases me to do so.

Anyway, what is your view on the topic in hand ... that of the trend in house prices? Are we seeing the beginning of a steady rise, or will it fail and fall back?
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Old Aug 28, 2009 | 11:47 PM
  #1313  
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As my 13 year old would say..........

Fail LOL

Shaun
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Old Aug 29, 2009 | 12:25 AM
  #1314  
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So now you are copying a 13 year old?

And you want me to take you seriously?

Fail is one of those words that is best used by a child .... adults do not say it - sits up there alongside 'My Bad' ....................
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Old Aug 29, 2009 | 12:55 AM
  #1315  
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You get really good advice on 'property' on 'scoobynet'

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Old Aug 29, 2009 | 08:28 AM
  #1316  
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Originally Posted by SunnySideUp
£15 an hour isn't bad .... £32k a year ....

I live a simple life, hence I end up saving quite a lot - not trying, it just happens - trying to get it to generate any real return is difficult at the moment.

I also haven't received a penny from anywhere ..... we are more alike than you may imagine!
I dont get paid holidays,but take them nonetheless,and get paid 35 hours a week,but attend for 40..

So 25k is a lot closer..tax and NI and that leaves just under 20k IIRC..

So cash or mortgage on the next buy ???


Please though Pete,Dont say me and you are similar... that is very very insulting..
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Old Aug 29, 2009 | 10:10 AM
  #1317  
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Pete, firstly I would not define you as a 'professional' in my eyes, Midlife, John Banks and my good self are. In other words no decision we ever make is made with money in mind.

Anyway, that's just me being pedantic, and its my own definition.

My point is even if you are a 'professional' how can you pretend you ONLY know such people and nobody else.

Doesn't your company have cleaners, porters, drivers, admin staff, clerical staff etc.

Mine does, and when you talk to such people don't you realise that there are plenty of such hard working individuals who cannot lend £27k to their kids when they are 60?

I'm a 'professional' in the strictest sense of the word, but for me to pretend that my world ONLY involves similar people would be ridiculous.

Similarly, for you to imply that you ONLY mix with other 'professionals' means either you are a big fat liar, or a sad old snob
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Old Aug 29, 2009 | 11:05 AM
  #1318  
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Originally Posted by fatscoobfella1
Please though Pete,Dont say me and you are similar... that is very very insulting..
I thought you would have been proud?
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Old Aug 29, 2009 | 11:17 AM
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Originally Posted by Deep Singh
Pete, firstly I would not define you as a 'professional' in my eyes, Midlife, John Banks and my good self are. In other words no decision we ever make is made with money in mind.

Anyway, that's just me being pedantic, and its my own definition.

My point is even if you are a 'professional' how can you pretend you ONLY know such people and nobody else.

Doesn't your company have cleaners, porters, drivers, admin staff, clerical staff etc.

Mine does, and when you talk to such people don't you realise that there are plenty of such hard working individuals who cannot lend £27k to their kids when they are 60?

I'm a 'professional' in the strictest sense of the word, but for me to pretend that my world ONLY involves similar people would be ridiculous.

Similarly, for you to imply that you ONLY mix with other 'professionals' means either you are a big fat liar, or a sad old snob
You may be the KingPin in your Company, being the Professional ... all the rest being cleaners, porters, drivers, admin staff, clerical - as you say.

My business means that, for all my working life, and every working day - I do mix with Professionals only ..... the nature of the business and my duties mean that I cannot do anything else, I work with the greatest minds in the UK - if not the world. I am but a small cog in my Company, you are clearly a big cog ...... don't let that confuse you into thinking I am not a Professional.

My neighbours are all professionals, it's just how it is .... my family are all professionals, that's also just how it is .... my social life is spent mixing with professionals, again, just how it is.

So, I am neither a big fat liar, or a sad old snob .... I am staggered that a 'true Professional' like yourself cannot understand.

Did you have anything of consequence to say regarding the Thread - House Prices?

Last edited by SunnySideUp; Aug 29, 2009 at 11:18 AM.
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Old Aug 29, 2009 | 11:29 AM
  #1320  
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I wish either of my parents had 27 grand to lend me. (neither is on anywhere near that per year salary)

Even when they were together, they couldn't have stumped up that sort of cash.

To assume everyone over 50 has that sort of money to part with is just burying your head in the sand, it's not the real world. Yes there will be people in that position, but it is certainly not the universal norm.
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