BBC NEWS | Business | House prices 'continue to rise'

JB...Are you not at all worried yet

 

Great isn't it. My house will soon be worth £1.38 billion.

Just got to hope the BoE keeps printing and interest rates don't rise. Apart from those potential minor hiccups, GOOD TIMES!

And as for those 1st time buyers, well I'm sure they're over the moon that more of their monthly income is set to go on a roof over their heads.

That's if they still have a job of course.

Or their wages haven't been cut.

Or they've been put on reduced hours.

Or told to work a month for free.

Etc etc.

Like I said GOOD TIMES!

 

There are not many first time buyers with £27k for a deposit burning a whole in their pocket I'm afraid

 

No, but there is a ****e of parents out there willing to put up the deposit required!

 

If you say jump, Pete, I certainly will. All I need to know is, how high sir?

 

Interesting read today........

Britain is sleepwalking towards a decade of economic misery - Telegraph

 

Blimey. Just in case anyone is in a good mood, but would rather top themselves instead, just read the comments below the article and you'll be sorted!!

 

although too true

 

Gets a bit lively doesn't it?


Guardian XV vs Torygraph XV by the look of it

 

They even manage to squeeze some England vs Scotland rhetoric in It's like scoobynet on steroids.

 

Even a resident Telboy.....

Don't you wish that the UK underclass could spell "their" instead of "there"
boz robinson
on August 26, 2009
at 06:09 PM

And "of course" instead of "of coarse"?

 

I saw that


They're bloody everywhere

 

we are just moving inexorably to a two tired society

the gap between the richest 20% and the rest will widen and widen

the people at the bottom will get poorer and poorer both absolutely and relatively

if you need to visualise it – think of UK football, the Premier League – maybe the championship, then a wasteland

wealth will be sucked upward and when it gets to the top it will not come back down -- just move off-shore (bit like the champions league)

 

Mitchy260, not remotely worried or surprised. Do you think a dumbed down BBC webpage describing the behaviour of sheep would worry me?

Forgive mixed metaphors, but it is still a house of cards held up for a general election by a cheap flood of money. Real interest rates are negative WRT CPI. RPI has been pushed negative by low interest rates, "deflation" becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

The only thing that has surprised/will surprise me about this collapse is how long it will take because of government interference and how much worse they will make it in the process.

I have absolutely no regrets about not catching this falling knife. It has barely started its drop. The government has chosen the long, hard method and will make it worse for the indebted in the end.

The sheep are getting confused by the price messages. They need to hear that debt servicing is going to get expensive, not have a short term shot in the arm from lower servicing costs due to artificially low interest rates.

The fact that people think it is over so early merely lines then up for a greater disaster later. Read some history, read some news reports from the early 30s.

 

Amen to that.

Well said that man!

 

As chrispurvis said, most parents can stump that small amount up .... maybe that how 1st time buyers are now buying?

1st time buyers, and their parents, should hold fire - the prices would have to drop then ..... no good parents propping up the market .... but, of course, by propping up the lower tier they are also propping up their own residences.

 

Oh yea..

My parents havent got £27,never mind £27,000.

Sometimes you live in a dream world implying that £27,000 is a small amount!!!

 

Most people in their 50's and 60's have far more than £27k to throw to their kids .... whether they should, or not, is a side issue. But, really, by the time you get to 50 £27k is a small amount - it's just a shame you don't have it in your 20's and 30's!

 

ROFLMAO. What planet are you on man?

Even if " most people in their 50's and 60's have far more than £27k to throw to their kids " if that's what this recovery is based on, then it's dead already.

 

Just wait til you get to 50 .... mortgage gone, debt free, kids working, expenses low, most of your wages are saved for retirement ..... £27k builds up pretty quickly.

 

This is going to be a double dip. 18 years of rises, a dip, rise then a real fall. Fools are now being sucked in as they think they are going to miss that 'boat'.

Is anyone other than SSU really that stupid to believe than 18 years of HPI has can be cured by 18 months of slight downs in the market?

Dead cat bounce - albeit a fat cat - all propped up by you and me, paid for by our tax to fund the banks and schemes.

The biggest con ever.

 

I'm glad you haven't changed your approach John, I would have been worried (for myself) if you had.
Its quite difficult when all the sheep are bleeting all around and the vested interests are spinning to keep ones focus.

When I hear from people like you(and others) it helps me refocus on what we all know is the truth.



If you don't mind me asking, what's your portfolio split looking like at the moment?

 

I think a portion of the investment is GTR futures

Steve

 

JB, you are obviously an intelligent man but i must say you need to stop over analysing everything and open your eyes as to what is going on around you.

I say that in the nicest possible way as I never understood your reasoning for your housing market predictions due to the fact you are located north of the border in an area of the country that has remained relatively untouched from this ''worst recession in history''

I have stats and figures straight from the ROS (Scotlands LR) if you would like to state otherwise. Scotland has always fared better than their neighbours down south in all the previous housing crashes, it is exactly the same this time round. (If we dont see the big boom, we cant feel the big bust afterwards, it is as simple as that)

I have facts and figures, Nationwide is now down less than 14% from the peak of Oct 2007, the figures posted yesterday are identical to what they were this time last year. Yes that is right, Aug 2009 = Sept 2008. A full 12 months of ups and downs and we are at the exact same point we were a year ago.

If you have a look in the news today, this is going further than just the Nationwide index, the LR reported a 1.6% rise in England and Wales today. Halifax figures in the last few months have been showing positives too.

I live in Aberdeenshire, the housing market has not budged an inch since 2007, they are just not dropping. Similar in Edinburgh where my folks live.

Personal debt levels rising, unemployment rising, government debt rising. Why has the housing market not plummeted like you believed it would already? QE of £150bn and IR of 0.5% i suspect will be your response??

I, as the majority of mortgage holders have fixed rate mortgages so we have not benefitted from these all time low IR's. When IR's start rising again, it's obviously only going to effect those on trackers or SVR's. I suspect you will assume that people will not be able to afford the jump back upto 5% but why? If i was paying a £1000pm FR mortgage that was coming to an end and it was to be replaced by a £400pm SVR rate, the £600pm difference would either be saved or it would be used to overpay and reduce the capital. I would still be budgeting for that £1000pm regardless. I suspect the majority of mortgage holders will share my thinking so waiting on IR's rising for the effect to be felt on the housing market i would say is unwise as i dont believe it will have a big impact.

Unemployment, was at 1.55m pre recession, its now at 2.45m 2yrs in so less than 1m people unemployed as a result so far. Are they all housing market linked or are they council house dwellers? Who knows, but i do know, the numbers are insignificant on the whole so will have little or no bearing on what the housing market does.

I feel its wishful thinking on your behalf now, things are changing, a few countries are now out of recession, we probably will be by the end of the year too.

Nationwide tell us a house priced today was exactly the same as it was 12mths ago. Come on John, wake up and smell the coffee. Housing market will always be based upon affordability. An inwork couple earning an average of £40k can support these £160k average house prices no problems. (£40k made up of 1 average earner and 1 PT earner)

I obviously have a bullish view, you have a bearish view. It doesn't make my view any more credible than yours or vice versa, but I am pretty certain that if i had asked you this time last year what your prediction for Aug2009 would be in comparison to Sept 08, im pretty sure that you would have guessed a further 20% down? If you had asked me, i would have stated what i did (This would all be over by Q2 2009 and house prices would stagnate for a few months before slowly rising again) You cannot ignore hard fact data Nationwide/Halifax and LR

Apologies for the long post, i just cannot see the day where we purchase homes on our credit cards anytime soon I guess old Gordon is not the fool we all thought he was eh

Over and out JB

 

All good stuff, but 40K income buys you diddly squat around here, and I doubt that 40k income is the norm in bonny Scotland. And to get a decent IR on 160k, you'll need a 40k deposit. Oh I forgot, Bank of Mum and Dad helps out there don't they?


Apart from that you're right on the money!

 

The high deposits are there to help the bank prop up their balance sheets. Already, banks that were in massive trouble are posting decent profits for the last 3 months. Give it 6 months and amount of deposit required will drop to 10-15%.

People borrowed far more than they could afford. Yes, the banks should have played it more carefully and even more so now that we own part of them. (although I suspect that within a year, they will all have bought themselves back anyway ) But, the people who borrowed 7x, 8x, 10x their income, only have themselves to blame.

We only put done around a 10% deposit when we bought our flat 3 years ago, but we have only borrowed 2.6x our joint annual income. At no point have we lived beyond our means.

 

LR figures show another rise .... anyone who cannot accept that house price risies are actually happening are blinkered.

How long the Housing rally will last is anyones call - personally, I would like another dip .... but, I suspect that this bull run on Houses will continue.

Whether you wish to believe it, or not, parents are giving deposits to children ... and, at age 50 or 60, £20k - £30k is a drop in their savings - and we all know it!

 

I think you'll find most parents are remortgaging their own homes to come up with these deposits.

 

SSU

Funny you should mention the age of 50........I'm 50 at the end of the year and have 3 kids, no savings, an overdraft, and a mortgage that I am about to add to so I can move.

I would expect that a lot of people are in my position, the sheer cost of living errodes the potential to save to the point where it cannot be reasonably "affordable" to save !

When my kids need houses I have to accept that I'll sell the house, downsize and use the equity as I'll not have the savings or the borrowing potential to do anything else.

Shaun