Henrik

iTrader: (5)

Oops BBC NEWS | Business | House prices 'fall another 1.8%'

House prices -1.8% in Feb according to Nationwide

SunnySideUp

This drop is excellent news .... I was dreading a positive showing in the Nationwide figures after the last Halifax report.

FlightMan

And I've been saying the crash hasn't slowed. Don't panic Pete, you'll be spending £50k on your south coast pad.

Henrik

iTrader: (5)

Yes of course it is, but not for the doom mongers on here who want us all to be enslaved to the banks for the rest of time

FlightMan

And I think what this tells those who are hanging on the Halifax data
( remember who their masters are now ) is forget it.

Tainted data beyond belief.

SunnySideUp

When is the next report due and from whom?

Fat Boy

Apart from being a bit of a stress bunny about all this , He's wrong in a lot more more ways than that - if the investor put it all in as equity then he's a moron as the figures you quote on £120k invested is not a yield worth talking about, and no, he won't make £650k in 2 years time. "50% rise in value within 2 years". Dream on. 5 years faintly possible.

Only possible rationale if any of that is true is that he's getting pretty much nothing if he has cash sat in Coutts or wherever so he'll forgo any coupon in return for possible capital growth in the future. I hope for his sake he's doing it using some form of CGT friendly LLP so he only pays CGT otherwise he's going to get spanked for 40% rather than 18%.

It's immaterial whether he's made money elsewhere - so did all our genius financial engineers and look what happened to them

Henrik

iTrader: (5)

Halifax is usually out on the first thursday of the month, isn't it (to coincide with the BOE meeting)?

Nationwide and Halifax are the only indexes I follow. The land reg etc are so far behind I don't take much notice of them (even though it's nice that they're negative too).

The rightmove (fantasy) asking price index is worth a watch too IMO, as I think it might be a good indication of when sellers become more realistic with the prices. At the moment, almost all properties I look at have asking prices higher than 2007's selling price on the same roads They're not selling of course, but the sellers will get the message eventually.

All IMO

SunnySideUp

Land Registry have just posted another fall ..... "House prices have fallen to March 2005 levels, according to the Land Registry, wiping off the gains seen since banks relaxed borrowing rules"

The Land Registry is about 3 months 'behind' - I think we are at 2004 levels now.

stuart n

I'm going to look at a new build property tomorrow, the asking price is £130K but rumour has it that £100K will be enough to secure one. Only one way to find out!

SunnySideUp

New Builds are difficult to value and Mortgage providers hate them - it's very hard to get a mortgage on a New Build.

If you're buying cash then it's wide open for amazing bargains - unless prices keep on falling!

stevebt

iTrader: (8)

How do you work that out ??? The sales on new houses is picking up really well in todays market

njkmrs

I am due to give my latest report .

I am just searching for a snippet of positive news for everyone with a half Full cup .!!!!!

It will be with you shortly folks .

hodgy0_2

we've got another viewing tomorrow, 4 in a week, and more in the last 3 weeks than in the last 3 months of 2008

if viewings made points made prizes i,d be mironaire by now

SunnySideUp

You wait until the offers come in ................. at 20% OFF your asking price!

stevebt

iTrader: (8)

Your only basis on this is papers and the web?? Most people actually don't realise that the housing market is getting better and the only way properties are going for proper low prices is due to reposessions !! I know people who have tried to offer lower on a nice property in a good area only to be told politely to pi55 off. The market drop only depends on how desperate you are?? House builders are but most people aren't unless they are facing reposession!!!

FlightMan

With lenders only borrowing at decent LTV ratio's, and unemployment soaring, house prices are only going one way, and it isn't upwards.

This is what Lord Turner said about house prices 100%+ mortgages and LTV ratios to the Commons select committee.

"The chairman of the Financial Services Authority has also hinted that the amount that buyers could borrow as a multiple of income could be controlled in future.

In evidence to the Treasury Select Committee, Lord Turner said: "We can certainly see a strong argument for us getting more involved in product regulation than we have in the past."

Gordon Brown recently suggested that 100pc mortgages should be banned. Loans of 100pc – or even more in some cases – are seen as part of a culture of "irresponsible" lending during the boom years.

When asked about 100pc mortgages, Lord Turner told the committee: "I do not think we can simply narrow it to the 100pc issue. I think the bigger issues might be should we be into 85pc or 90pc" – implying that the FSA might prevent loans being granted unless buyers had deposits of 10pc or even 15pc of the property value.

But he hinted that income multiples could be targeted instead. Before the property boom lenders typically restricted home loans to 3.5 times the borrower's salary. But when prices started to take off, putting many properties beyond reach if loans were restricted to that level, some banks started to lend as much as six times salary..."

Start lending at 3.5x salary, and average prices will be 100k.

Look at Rightmove, and install Property Bee, and see what's happening to asking prices. Very interesting.

Petem95

You've got to be having a laugh! Firstly repo's are not even includes in any of the house price survey stats, so average price falls are much sharper than the already record-breaking falls being posted by Nationwide etc.

Secondly have you not noticed whats happening to the economy? We're almost in a depression due to excessive lending which has supported house prices. The bust has almost taken out the entire financial system - banks will NEVER EVER lend like that again, as a result house prices will never return to such crazy levels.

Any sellers turning down offers are simply in denial, as it sounds like you yourself are! Wake up and smell the coffee mate - prices will fall 40-50% from current levels AT LEAST!

stevebt

iTrader: (8)

Wether recession or depression you still need somewhere to live!! and buying is still cheaper in the long run than renting. I actually work in the housing sector and this year is far better than last year for sales. I have been suffering for nearly 2 years now due to the housing crisis but it really is starting to get better. Its now hitting other people who thought that there was no problem. Thats why we are seeing more companies going under. People like myself who used to spend spend spend have stopped spending and have watched how I do spend my cash and it has finally worked its way into proper people who are actually realising that there is a problem. Now its getting better I will be getting back to spending again and which in turn will start others spending


That will never happen no matter how many of you hope or pray it will We have already passed the bottom and people accepting lower offers for thier property has nothing to do with values but more desperation!!!

FlightMan

Eh? Passed the bottom? Have you seen the house price indexes? They're still heading south man!!

Wait for 3-6 months of no falls, then you can call the bottom.

Petem95

This explains a lot!


But why not? Look at Japan (the only developed country to have already been through a similar - if slightly less serious - economic collapse) - prices down up to 90%, and prices now still lower than peak over a decade ago.

Come on, now you're just having a laugh! Even optimistic Nationwide are expecting a long way down yet! Read their latest report!

Remember that in the current climate, even after a fall of 50% in prices houses would still be bloody expensive, and out of reach of a hell of a lot of people.

SunnySideUp

I think you are right, we HAVE passed the bottom - prices always overshoot - therefore we have another 20% drop to go.

The Agents I have been talking to have been interesting - 4 weeks ago they were all excited about all the 'viewings' ...... they are, this week, really cheesed off - some offers (25% off asking) and no sales!!

SlimJ_2005

Sounds like stevebt is the only one in denial here

The only way things will pick up again is when we return to responsible lending, 20-25% deposits, mortgages of 3.5 times average salary is right - house prices should come down to a reasonable level.

njkmrs

I think you are wrong ,the Gov is doing everything it can think of to get the market going again .Practically forcing the banks to lend again to stimulate the sales .
Banks may have been told to lend more carefully but 90 % mortgages are being given again ,not just 70-75% .

People just wont have the deposits at that rate ,and the Gov cannot wait for people to save that and they certainly dont want prices to fall to them levels ,due to masses being in negative equity .In my opinion .

Diesel

Mate got a new build £145k for £94k this week. Played hardball - but that shouldn't be too tough for the developer guy with a Bentley and some tats Good luck to both D

stevebt

iTrader: (8)

As it happens I'm the only realistic person on this thread! The rest of you are basing your hopes on papers and the web ,whereas mine is based on actual WORK and SALES in the new build housing trade.


Petem95 if your going on about the housing market in Japan, don't they have a 100 year mortgage ???? which is still a long way away from this country

SunnySideUp

I beg to differ .......... I have been actively seeking property since July 2008, I'm so glad I haven't bought yet!

Granted, viewings and offers are increasing (but, from a historically low level) - lets not get carried away with ourselves about an upturn!

stevebt

iTrader: (8)

But people are chancing that low an offer to people who are desperate to move you really can't say what the bottom is as the people who have already bought don't really care as they have already got that good a bargain . I have seen a couple of huge houses go for £220k, granted they aren't in the best of places but they can fit my house in them say 2 times ???? These houses aren't going to get any cheaper as they are shells that the builder is trying to get rid of. The land with no shells is just going to rise in time, there is no way a big house builder will put new house shells on land without good sales so to get these new shells you need to start paying £££. As I have already said the only discounts will com from people desperate to sell, Would YOU sell your house for 50% less than the market value of last year if your not desperate or would you just wait for a recovery ????? Granted if your moving up this is a great time to sell if your not bothered on taking a hit ??? But a lot of people you may be trading up to will be bothered about the hit so thats why the housing market is fecked

cookstar

iTrader: (6)

People can offer all they like, but untill banks start lending again they mean nothing, I am struggling to get a BTL mortgage with a LTV of 50% for less than 8%

FlightMan

Steve, I'm sure us sceptics would be happy to except that the house price crash is over if you'll provide us with links to:

A website with a graph that shows national houses have been flat for 3 months.
A website that shows that mortgage lending is back over the level it was 12 months ago.

Can you do that Steve?



This is an interesting story about what can be achieved buying newbuilds. The guy is fully expecting to lose 20%, but it's a HOME not an INVESTMENT, and he's happy with his purchase and the mortgage outstanding.


" I dont post too often but I have been here since around mid 2005 and it has helped me be more informed than anyone else I personally know about the housing market so far. But Mr & Mrs MarkyH and child have bought a house.

Why? Well it all fell into place after stalking the newbuild developers for the whole of 2008 and walking away from several EA's and developers sales peaople every other month who thought they knew better than me, HPC.co.uk and property bee.

We have now exchanged and are set to complete mid march. So what happened? Well basically in December after playing Persimmon and two divisions of Bryant, all on the same development, off against each other and securing a First Direct 1.49% over base tracker mortgage on my salary alone, we are buying a five bed 144m2 house after selling a 70m2 two bed semi 18months ago in August 07.

It has gone like this, bought 2 bed in 1996 for 55k, sold in 2007 for 195k, STR 18 months, bought new five bed for........................... £230k, and this is in Aylesbury, the SE. So we have got it at about 30% off from peak.

This what we got and the same house type bought on the same development in late 07 / early 08 were sold for £330k.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...y-24085520.html

Apart from getting the purchase price dropped by £30k+ I also got them to throw in free ........ flooring, mix of carpet and vinyl through the whole house, intigrated kitchen appliances (AEG cooker, dishwasher, washing machine and fridge freezer), extra built in wardrode in second main bedroon and turf on the lawn. So we will move into a 98% ready new house just as if we had bought second hand of an OO.

The good thing is that they way the base rate is going our C&I mortgage payments are already going to be £200 less than our rent on the 3 bed we have now and may be £250 less if the BOE drop another 1/2% next week.

So plenty of scope for overpayments and to acheive the long term plan of a affordable family house on 1 full time wage alone, of 1 full time and one part time if we want spare cash and extra luxuries. We can choose.

how did I do it, well being able to get any mortage deal due to good credit rating and low LTV and having a six figure STR deposit certainly helped. Thrown in with 3 develpers all competing with exactly the same type house on exactly the same development in an otherwise dead for sales December helped too. All sorted in one weekend.

Sat morning went to look at prospect no 1 on for £290k with Bryant Midlands. When asked what would I offer I said no more than 249999 as I wont pay 3% stamp duty. Within 1/2 hr sales guy got the ok from his H/O.

Then went to Persimmon lunchtime looked at theirs. Said to sales woman, Bryant Mid will let me have one for £240k can you beat it. She made some calls and 1 hour later called to say no, can't go below £250k but will throw in £10k of extras for free, kitchen appliances, flooring, wardrode and turf. Said ok will get back to you.

In the afternoon walked into Bryant Oxford, looked at theirs (which had the best location and garden size) and said Persimmon will let me have theirs fro £235k with £10k of extras as metioned free, can you beat it?

1/2 hr later while we were still mulling around in their show homes the sales girl personally found us and like and excited spanial said they sadi they will do it for you due to your proceedable position for £230k with extras. But you must put down holding deposit by mid December and exchage in Jan, complete in March.

Done i said. But......... due to being way low for what they wanted to sell for it was subject to Taylor Wimpey board approval and it got refused twice and made it through third time in mid Jan. I had to have a long, stern talk with the Bryant regional director, point out my situation so he could explain to the TW board this was a no hassle deal, and also point out I was a 5000 TW shareholder (bought @ 11p hee, hee) and was not happy the board was rejecting my quick sale offer at a time when TW banking covernents are being tested harshly.

It all worked out. "