House Prices Now At 2004 Levels
08 February 2009, 02:26 PM
#511
08 February 2009, 02:34 PM
#512
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Deflation is being used as an excuse to lower rates when current inflation rates are still over 3%.
We might see a short period of deflation, but all these short-term VAT cuts, sharp interest rate cuts, massive bank bail-outs, and weaking of Sterling leading to increasing costs of imports is all inflationary, so give it 12-18 months and inflation will be taking off like nothing we've seen in recent years, which could potentially lead to very hight interest rates.
Those on long-term fixed rate mortgages might be wishing they were on trackers, but give it a couple of years and it's be vice versa...
We might see a short period of deflation, but all these short-term VAT cuts, sharp interest rate cuts, massive bank bail-outs, and weaking of Sterling leading to increasing costs of imports is all inflationary, so give it 12-18 months and inflation will be taking off like nothing we've seen in recent years, which could potentially lead to very hight interest rates.
Those on long-term fixed rate mortgages might be wishing they were on trackers, but give it a couple of years and it's be vice versa...
Last edited by Petem95; 08 February 2009 at 02:35 PM.
08 February 2009, 03:18 PM
#513
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I do see 8% Interest Rates in 2011 .... wage rises of 10% and then all this debt and worry will be long forgotten .... Inflation will top 12% IMO.
Actually quite a small price to pay to print ourself out of where we are now ...
Actually quite a small price to pay to print ourself out of where we are now ...
08 February 2009, 03:25 PM
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Wouldn't be at all surprised to see rates in the region of 8% in 2011 either tho.
08 February 2009, 03:32 PM
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We are just waiting for the time the rates go up and past the 6% mark the people who are saving now {or so they think} will start finding it even harder to pay the mortgage as they have spent any saving they have made which may itself lead to more people losing their houses.
08 February 2009, 03:47 PM
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It does mean that prices should stay lower and hence affordable. None of this in the long term is a bad thing. We are sure going to take some pain for it in the medium to short term though.
08 February 2009, 10:39 PM
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"For at least a year it seemed to be a term that had disappeared from the lexicon. Yesterday gazumping was once more heard passing the lips of that endangered species, the estate agent.
On the day the Bank of England cut interest rates to their lowest level in British history, to combat the worst recession since the second world war, some estate agents in London were claiming that prospective property buyers were again entering into last-minute bidding wars to secure the home of their dreams.
Charles Peerless, manager of the West End and City branches of Winkworths estate agency, said: "We've had gazumping on two lower priced properties - around the £360,000 mark - in January. "We had abuse from the buyers because they think the market is dreadful and they couldn't believe they had been outbid."
Ed Mead, director of London agents Douglas & Gordon, said the company's Wandsworth branch had seen one buyer try to gazump another by £50,000 after a bidding battle pushed the price on a property from £800,000 to nearly £900,000. The vendor went for the lower bidder in the end as he was offering cash," he said.
Other estate agents were reluctant to use the g-word, but claimed they had seen some of those elusive green shoots of recovery"
The Guardian
On the day the Bank of England cut interest rates to their lowest level in British history, to combat the worst recession since the second world war, some estate agents in London were claiming that prospective property buyers were again entering into last-minute bidding wars to secure the home of their dreams.
Charles Peerless, manager of the West End and City branches of Winkworths estate agency, said: "We've had gazumping on two lower priced properties - around the £360,000 mark - in January. "We had abuse from the buyers because they think the market is dreadful and they couldn't believe they had been outbid."
Ed Mead, director of London agents Douglas & Gordon, said the company's Wandsworth branch had seen one buyer try to gazump another by £50,000 after a bidding battle pushed the price on a property from £800,000 to nearly £900,000. The vendor went for the lower bidder in the end as he was offering cash," he said.
Other estate agents were reluctant to use the g-word, but claimed they had seen some of those elusive green shoots of recovery"
The Guardian
09 February 2009, 02:50 PM
#522
I would say it is too early to go for a long fixed term mortgage at the moment .And certainly not those you have to pay up front fees for .!!!
I cant see rates shooting up anytime soon .I would say a couple of years to be honest,to make sure the country has firmly settled down in its recovery .
If house prices do start to creep up month by month then I dont see the rates being hiked up straight away,as this would jepordise any longterm recovery process .
Obviously thats my opinion ,but the much more knowledgeable peeps on here may know something different !!!!!
I cant see rates shooting up anytime soon .I would say a couple of years to be honest,to make sure the country has firmly settled down in its recovery .
If house prices do start to creep up month by month then I dont see the rates being hiked up straight away,as this would jepordise any longterm recovery process .
Obviously thats my opinion ,but the much more knowledgeable peeps on here may know something different !!!!!
09 February 2009, 03:30 PM
#523
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This is what house price futures are predicting will happen to house prices..
Personally i think it will drop below 120k, maybe below 110. But it's all a guessing game really.
Personally i think it will drop below 120k, maybe below 110. But it's all a guessing game really.
10 February 2009, 12:50 PM
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Interesting graph that 
I see that the Chartered Surveyors say the prices still falling:-
BBC NEWS | Business | House prices 'see continued fall'
I see that the Chartered Surveyors say the prices still falling:-
BBC NEWS | Business | House prices 'see continued fall'
13 February 2009, 09:27 PM
#525
FindaProperty.com ,s Michael O,Flynn gives 10 good reasons to now buy a property .
He reckons the second half of the year may see an upward trend in prices and buyer activity.
Sorry cant attach the linky thing !
He reckons the second half of the year may see an upward trend in prices and buyer activity.
Sorry cant attach the linky thing !
13 February 2009, 09:41 PM
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"Most house price data suggest prices are still tumbling. The FT House Price Index this week showed a 1.4 per cent drop in average prices in January, compared with December, while Nationwide recorded a decline of 1.3 per cent.
Fionnuala Earley, chief economist at Nationwide, says there is nothing to suggest house prices are recovering at the rate reported by Halifax.
“There has been a pick-up in buyer inquiries, but there still has not been a big pick- up in approvals and we would need to see that before there was any recovery in prices,” she says.
A better gauge of the market is looking at prices across three-month periods. The Halifax data showed a 5 per cent decline in the three months to the end of January, compared with the final months of 2008. Nationwide recorded an average drop of 4 per cent in the three months to January, a slight improvement on the period ending in December. Indices show that prices have fallen by 12-16 per cent in the past year.
Estate agents say December was a particularly quiet month, which may have skewed the most recent house price data.
Halifax and Nationwide adjust their data to account for the type of sales taking place each month. So, for example, if a higher number of large, more expensive properties were sold in December than January, this should not affect the overall house price data.
“We look at a lot of information – such as what type of property it is, where it is and how many rooms it has – and essentially fix a value on each characteristic to compare properties on a like-for-like basis,” says Ellis.
The lenders also smooth out the data if there has been a disproportionate number of sales in one area.
But discrepancies between the indices are not uncommon. Each is based on a different sample of sales. In the case of Halifax and Nationwide, the figures are taken from the properties they provide mortgages for, so their indices will not always be in sync.
Estate agents expect further price falls of around 10 per cent this year. Knight Frank forecasts that central London prices will fall 30 per cent from their 2007 peak. Also, while there has been evidence of more buyer inquiries in recent weeks, few of these are yet translating into sales.
Knight Frank believes the number of properties coming to the market will increase as more vendors accept there is not going to be a swift recovery in prices, but that this will take time"
Source:- ft.com
Fionnuala Earley, chief economist at Nationwide, says there is nothing to suggest house prices are recovering at the rate reported by Halifax.
“There has been a pick-up in buyer inquiries, but there still has not been a big pick- up in approvals and we would need to see that before there was any recovery in prices,” she says.
A better gauge of the market is looking at prices across three-month periods. The Halifax data showed a 5 per cent decline in the three months to the end of January, compared with the final months of 2008. Nationwide recorded an average drop of 4 per cent in the three months to January, a slight improvement on the period ending in December. Indices show that prices have fallen by 12-16 per cent in the past year.
Estate agents say December was a particularly quiet month, which may have skewed the most recent house price data.
Halifax and Nationwide adjust their data to account for the type of sales taking place each month. So, for example, if a higher number of large, more expensive properties were sold in December than January, this should not affect the overall house price data.
“We look at a lot of information – such as what type of property it is, where it is and how many rooms it has – and essentially fix a value on each characteristic to compare properties on a like-for-like basis,” says Ellis.
The lenders also smooth out the data if there has been a disproportionate number of sales in one area.
But discrepancies between the indices are not uncommon. Each is based on a different sample of sales. In the case of Halifax and Nationwide, the figures are taken from the properties they provide mortgages for, so their indices will not always be in sync.
Estate agents expect further price falls of around 10 per cent this year. Knight Frank forecasts that central London prices will fall 30 per cent from their 2007 peak. Also, while there has been evidence of more buyer inquiries in recent weeks, few of these are yet translating into sales.
Knight Frank believes the number of properties coming to the market will increase as more vendors accept there is not going to be a swift recovery in prices, but that this will take time"
Source:- ft.com
13 February 2009, 09:43 PM
#527
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"Most house price data suggest prices are still tumbling. The FT House Price Index this week showed a 1.4 per cent drop in average prices in January, compared with December, while Nationwide recorded a decline of 1.3 per cent.
Fionnuala Earley, chief economist at Nationwide, says there is nothing to suggest house prices are recovering at the rate reported by Halifax.
“There has been a pick-up in buyer inquiries, but there still has not been a big pick- up in approvals and we would need to see that before there was any recovery in prices,” she says.
A better gauge of the market is looking at prices across three-month periods. The Halifax data showed a 5 per cent decline in the three months to the end of January, compared with the final months of 2008. Nationwide recorded an average drop of 4 per cent in the three months to January, a slight improvement on the period ending in December. Indices show that prices have fallen by 12-16 per cent in the past year.
Estate agents say December was a particularly quiet month, which may have skewed the most recent house price data.
Halifax and Nationwide adjust their data to account for the type of sales taking place each month. So, for example, if a higher number of large, more expensive properties were sold in December than January, this should not affect the overall house price data.
“We look at a lot of information – such as what type of property it is, where it is and how many rooms it has – and essentially fix a value on each characteristic to compare properties on a like-for-like basis,” says Ellis.
The lenders also smooth out the data if there has been a disproportionate number of sales in one area.
But discrepancies between the indices are not uncommon. Each is based on a different sample of sales. In the case of Halifax and Nationwide, the figures are taken from the properties they provide mortgages for, so their indices will not always be in sync.
Estate agents expect further price falls of around 10 per cent this year. Knight Frank forecasts that central London prices will fall 30 per cent from their 2007 peak. Also, while there has been evidence of more buyer inquiries in recent weeks, few of these are yet translating into sales.
Knight Frank believes the number of properties coming to the market will increase as more vendors accept there is not going to be a swift recovery in prices, but that this will take time"
Source:- ft.com
Fionnuala Earley, chief economist at Nationwide, says there is nothing to suggest house prices are recovering at the rate reported by Halifax.
“There has been a pick-up in buyer inquiries, but there still has not been a big pick- up in approvals and we would need to see that before there was any recovery in prices,” she says.
A better gauge of the market is looking at prices across three-month periods. The Halifax data showed a 5 per cent decline in the three months to the end of January, compared with the final months of 2008. Nationwide recorded an average drop of 4 per cent in the three months to January, a slight improvement on the period ending in December. Indices show that prices have fallen by 12-16 per cent in the past year.
Estate agents say December was a particularly quiet month, which may have skewed the most recent house price data.
Halifax and Nationwide adjust their data to account for the type of sales taking place each month. So, for example, if a higher number of large, more expensive properties were sold in December than January, this should not affect the overall house price data.
“We look at a lot of information – such as what type of property it is, where it is and how many rooms it has – and essentially fix a value on each characteristic to compare properties on a like-for-like basis,” says Ellis.
The lenders also smooth out the data if there has been a disproportionate number of sales in one area.
But discrepancies between the indices are not uncommon. Each is based on a different sample of sales. In the case of Halifax and Nationwide, the figures are taken from the properties they provide mortgages for, so their indices will not always be in sync.
Estate agents expect further price falls of around 10 per cent this year. Knight Frank forecasts that central London prices will fall 30 per cent from their 2007 peak. Also, while there has been evidence of more buyer inquiries in recent weeks, few of these are yet translating into sales.
Knight Frank believes the number of properties coming to the market will increase as more vendors accept there is not going to be a swift recovery in prices, but that this will take time"
Source:- ft.com
whats your point?
13 February 2009, 10:07 PM
#530
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Estate agents claiming gazumping etc LOL Next you'l be believing Kwik fit when they say you need 4 new dampers on a 2 year old car
I know interest rates will go back up (and maybe then some), but for now I'm really enjoying my mortgage being £700 less a month
I doubt rates will sky rocket in the medium term or we will be back were we started...
D (little savings, but money in the garage - GOOD CALL lol )
I know interest rates will go back up (and maybe then some), but for now I'm really enjoying my mortgage being £700 less a month
I doubt rates will sky rocket in the medium term or we will be back were we started...
D (little savings, but money in the garage - GOOD CALL lol
)
13 February 2009, 10:14 PM
#531
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Estate agents claiming gazumping etc LOL Next you'l be believing Kwik fit when they say you need 4 new dampers on a 2 year old car
I know interest rates will go back up (and maybe then some), but for now I'm really enjoying my mortgage being £700 less a month
I doubt rates will sky rocket in the medium term or we will be back were we started...
D (little savings, but money in the garage - GOOD CALL lol )
I know interest rates will go back up (and maybe then some), but for now I'm really enjoying my mortgage being £700 less a month
I doubt rates will sky rocket in the medium term or we will be back were we started...
D (little savings, but money in the garage - GOOD CALL lol
)as i said "know one knows anything"
13 February 2009, 10:19 PM
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D
23 February 2009, 03:18 PM
#534
Hey wondered where this thread went .
Anyhow Northern Rock set to start the lending process off again,tying in nicely with the start of Spring .
Is this just whats needed ??
I think it could be .
Anyhow Northern Rock set to start the lending process off again,tying in nicely with the start of Spring .
Is this just whats needed ??
I think it could be .
23 February 2009, 03:58 PM
#535
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we've had 4 veiwings this week and a property in the Village with some land has been sold a week after comming on the market
on the other hand, the economy seems to be really going down the pan, surely the recent spate of job losses must see repos accelerate, forcing down house prices -- who knows
on the other hand, the economy seems to be really going down the pan, surely the recent spate of job losses must see repos accelerate, forcing down house prices -- who knows
23 February 2009, 05:23 PM
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Really glad HMG has given NR xx billions of our money, so we can all rush out and buy bargains like this: 
Studio flat for sale in Belgrave road, Pimlico, SW1V
Studio flat for sale in Belgrave road, Pimlico, SW1V
23 February 2009, 06:31 PM
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Also depends on the LTV as well, many people are slating the banks for 100% mortgages but how many people would have been able to afford houses over the last couple of years without them
Allowing Northern Rock to offer mortgages again is a big U-turn by "we need decisive action" Brown.
23 February 2009, 07:13 PM
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