Ahem ,I wonder ,.............
House prices rising ...!!!

Its a funny old game !!!!

 

The BBC article says:

" The average house price reached £163,966 according to the data, which is based on home asking prices. "

Surely this should be price on completion.

I mean, I could ask for 10k for my car, it doesn't mean it's worth it.

There is soemthing fishy going on. I expect Pravda Beeb to run this over an over, the red tops to emblazon it across the front pages, and more people to start looking.

And then, boom!

 

Hurry, I must go and buy a house Bull traps ahead

 

Halifax House Price Nov 2008 = £163,605
Halifax House Price Dec 2008 = £159,896
Halifax House Price Jan 2009 = £163,966

So the 2.5% increase has wiped out the falls from the previous month and a little bit more, we are now back to pre Nov 2008 levels for falls

Just a blip i think, but i suspect a few twitch ar*es if there is another rise next month.

So far...

£163,966 Jan 2009 / £199770 Aug 2007 = 82.1% so prices have dropped 17.9% from peak

About another 10% and we will be there i think.

 

House prices round here (Medway/Kent) area haven't really dropped that much at all.

 

Bull trap graph!

 

ha ha -- there is the rub Matteeboy

When I refused to accept an offer 25% lower than my admittedly optimistic asking price on a rented property in London, Crispin from Foxtons (I kid you not) thought I was mad
“take the money” he said – and “do what with it” I said, “put in a bank”,

I’d rather have my money in property, than cash doing f*ck all, and IMHO the stock market’s just gambling, with **** odds, in a shirt and tie

 

"Halifax has reported a 1.9% increase in house prices in January, offsetting the 1.6% fall in December.

The bank says that although house prices are still more than 17% lower than this time last year, the last month saw the first increase in property values for 15 months"

I hope it is a blip .... I think it was Halifax who had a blip up last year when everything else showed falls - but, it is certainly bouncing along the bottom now!

Where can I buy a Tracker -1% Mortgage?

 

Depends on your rental return.

If it returns say 5% after all costs (including mortage) and devalues by 20% over the year you have lost 15% of the value of the property (which may represent anywhere from 15-90% of your investment depending on your ltv)

The same money in the bank would yield virtually 0%

So the choices are

1) Return of 0%

2) Return of minus 15% to minus 90%

And you feel option 2) is better?

 

I thought house prices were on the rise again now ?

 

Persimmon and charles church NE have sold more houses in the last week than they have in the last 2 months. Its promising but its still going to be a while before it returns to steady growth

 

Although not really related, business in our sector (marine and industrial transmissions) has also picked up quite a bit in the last week alone.

 

yep -- and my rental returns are 18%

but in any case if you look at it slightly longer term as long as its giving you a return, i'd still rather have money in property than getting **** all in the bank or gambling it on the stock market

Oh and when i say property I mean freehold -- flats are a ridiculous concept


the Guardian reports Gazumping,s back (estage agent hype probably)

 

18% return on your capital or value of property? If the latter I'd be interested to know how you managed that if you don't mind me asking?

 

Btw, Nationwide reports a 1.7% fall in January

 

Deep -- on my capital

I just bought well thats all, after getting in neg equity in the early 90,s

I bought a house in central london in 1995 -- right at the bottom of the curve -- but it was a repo so it was a further 10% cheaper, rolled it over in 1999 and then bought an even bigger house, again, just at the top of Ladbrook Grove in London so in the "zone", split the basement into a flat etc etc, fairly low borrowings, but a fairly large rent!!!

however a few kids later moved to the sticks!!!

 

Some reports said the house price would fall quicker in December as people slashed prices in order to try and sell before Christmas. Therefore this months "rise" maybe a false dawn, we'll know when for sure in March.
Most first time buyers, such as me, still can't afford a mortgage as you need up to a 40% deposit now to get a decent interest rate

 

Supposedly their will be an increase in new build prices due to them getting rid of most of their stock houses at considerable discount or loads of extras added for nothing??? Which means they now have to build new homes which they won't be too keen to discount

 

December is always a bad period for house sales/buying as no one wants to look for a home before christmas January is slow but pickup for house sales in the past has always been from february onwards. Most sales girls I talk to for new builds say the end of the year and it will be

 

This is the fundamental problem. We have record low interest rates, but only for those who have a great wedge of deposit. How many FTBs have 25-40% to put down? Answer is virtually none, so they face rates of 6%+

As a result there is plenty demand from FTBs, but not much ability to pay. Either prices continue to fall until the deposits get up to a better %, or rates for lower deposits reduce (only they cant as there isnt enough cash to go round).

FTBs cant buy at current prices being demanded. Next time buyers cant sell at the price they need to trade-up and so it goes up the chain.

Oh yes and we have rocketing unemployment along with reduced working hours and massive personal debt.

How can house prices start to increase any time soon?

As Deep says above, I'd rather have my equity in the bank at 0-0.5% interest than loosing 10-15% of it in 2009! When the up-turn comes, it really doesn't take long to put that equity back into a property.

 

A leading UK economist is predicting a recovery in the real estate industry before the wider economy improves as everyone else predicts more doom and gloom.

Speaking at a conference in Paris, Roger Bootle, often referred to as 'Dr Death for his gloomy economic forecasts, said that low interest rates over the next two years would have a positive impact on the commercial property sector in particular.

He told delegates at the Urban Land Institute's annual European gathering that he is upbeat. 'I see an enormous amount of money waiting on the sidelines ready to be invested,' he said.

'The next two years will be pretty grim for the economy and the implications for the property industry will be falling rents and tenant defaults. However, the sector may see a rebound in activity and prices well before overall levels of economic activity have improved,' he added.

But despite Bootle's optimism, other financial experts were less positive over the expectation of cash-rich investors waiting to pounce on bargain property prices.

'The situation facing the real estate market is one of severely restricted capital flows on both the debt and the equity side,' said Fredrik Elwing, managing director of Credit Suisse.

Others pointed out that there is still much unravelling to do by banks before they can move forward and start lending again.

'Banks haven't got to the bottom yet of where the situation is in terms of their portfolios. There are some horrible nightmares to face, not least in terms of commercial mortgage-backed securities,' said Simon Hersom, regional managing director of Middle East and Asia-Pacific real estate finance at RBS Global Banking and Markets.

Once concern is that Europe's commercial property markets could slump for longer and more deeply than feared as Germany's biggest open-ended real estate funds exit the market, forced out by the global credit crunch.

'The worst is yet to come. There's too much uncertainty in the financial markets. Nobody is in any hurry to invest in open-ended property funds right now,' said Bjoern Drescher, head of consultancy Drescher & Cie, in Frankfurt.

Source:- Property Wire

 

why does anyone trust anything that economist say

they only exist to make Russell Grant and his fellow Astrologers look scientific

putting large amounts of cash in the bank on 0% interest is barmy imo

i dont know the figures but I suspect property out does any other investments in the short medium and long term

(flats in central manchester,leeds and above chipshops exepted)

 

sunny, Roger Bootle is a part of Capital Economics is he not? They are widely quoted in the Telegraph as seeing nothing but downward pressure on house prices for at least the next 2 years

He may well think that prices will start to recover before the wider economy but as a group they feel it is at least 24 months away.

I don'y pay attention to most economists but Bootle was calling the top in about 2005/2006, he laid his reputation on it and then was made to eat humble pie when prices continued to rise.
Everything he said was correct, but he was just about a year or two too early. Even he couldn't estimate how stupid people/banks/governments could be.

 

Nice one steve, you've made my evening. Are you drinking with njkmrs tonight?

 

IMO:

Medium-long term (18 months+), yes.

Short term in the current climate (up to 18 months), no.

 

Sorry virtually quoted from the FPDC mag for the building specialist. They quoted 2 years ago it was going to be bad last year and get better towards the end of this year then better next year But to be honest they are expecting earlier growth now. WHEN MY WAGE IS PUT BACK TO WHAT IT WAS A YEAR AGO THE HOUSING MARKET IS 100% GOING FORWARD

 

Its not looking good

 

Unless we enter a period of deflation......