Stock Market to Crash on Monday?
23 October 2007, 02:17 PM
#31
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Over recent years, the stock market has made huge gains. Since there's been a sniff of stability, post 9/11, Afganistan and Iraq.
These can't merely be be put down to inflation and rising costs. New markets or technologies, rising demands for raw materials and the greater globalisation of processes all play their part.
USA could still upset the apple cart. It's the primary market for a lot of the far east. Though it's interesting that China may now be China's own greatest market, and growing.
J.
These can't merely be be put down to inflation and rising costs. New markets or technologies, rising demands for raw materials and the greater globalisation of processes all play their part.
USA could still upset the apple cart. It's the primary market for a lot of the far east. Though it's interesting that China may now be China's own greatest market, and growing.
J.
23 October 2007, 02:31 PM
#32
It never ceases to amaze me the complete lack of basic English skills there are in English people.
Do you not care how much of a dick you look making basic mistakes like this? especially as you are obviously fairly intelligent considering you are talking about shares. Allow me to correct your basic tense mistake for you.
In for a fall of over 250points on the FTSE I reckon.
Do you not care how much of a dick you look making basic mistakes like this? especially as you are obviously fairly intelligent considering you are talking about shares. Allow me to correct your basic tense mistake for you.
In for a fall of over 250points on the FTSE I reckon.
23 October 2007, 04:45 PM
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But, and it is a big but, the gains experienced by the stock markets are not actually in a vacuum. They are typically in line with currency valuation (or more to the point, devaluation).
Over the past hundred years the US market growth has been at the expense of a hugely devalued dollar. If you were buying into the US market from outside then on average your returns would be zero.
Over the past two years the US markets have risen by around 20% - great. The US dollar has devalued by around 20% - boo!
Over the long term it is true of the most stable currencies against sterling as well.
These pressures along create the upward shift in the stock indices. It is a technical argument that has real impact on long term financial health.
Over the past hundred years the US market growth has been at the expense of a hugely devalued dollar. If you were buying into the US market from outside then on average your returns would be zero.
Over the past two years the US markets have risen by around 20% - great. The US dollar has devalued by around 20% - boo!
Over the long term it is true of the most stable currencies against sterling as well.
These pressures along create the upward shift in the stock indices. It is a technical argument that has real impact on long term financial health.
23 October 2007, 06:08 PM
#36
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all true and not disagreeing. But as far as the currency point - its not really that relavent as total wealth is increasing - so what if the dollar has fallen? The US is incredibly richer today than 100 years ago. Anyway you can hedge currency risk
23 October 2007, 10:25 PM
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Warren,
It matters greatly as a lot of wealth creation in the UK is tied to US investment which is providing nil return.
Americans are wealthier today because the Feds are borrowing money to support the economy and allowing a widening trade deficit.
So Americans can feel wealthier, but sooner or later imported goods will get more and more expensive and so they will be dependent on their own resources (of which they have quite a lot) and not become buyers on the world market (another problem for other economies such as Japan - which is why Japan and China are so keen to lend the Feds money).
Hedging currency risk is a short term play against adverse shifts of currency and trade, not the longer term economic returns. The best way to avoid currency risk is to invest in Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc and the New Zealand dollar. All currencies that have effectively increased in value over the past 100 years.
Of course if everyone did this then the dollar, sterling and euro would devalue even more!
Euro and Rupee are good short term bets.
It matters greatly as a lot of wealth creation in the UK is tied to US investment which is providing nil return.
Americans are wealthier today because the Feds are borrowing money to support the economy and allowing a widening trade deficit.
So Americans can feel wealthier, but sooner or later imported goods will get more and more expensive and so they will be dependent on their own resources (of which they have quite a lot) and not become buyers on the world market (another problem for other economies such as Japan - which is why Japan and China are so keen to lend the Feds money).
Hedging currency risk is a short term play against adverse shifts of currency and trade, not the longer term economic returns. The best way to avoid currency risk is to invest in Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc and the New Zealand dollar. All currencies that have effectively increased in value over the past 100 years.
Of course if everyone did this then the dollar, sterling and euro would devalue even more!
Euro and Rupee are good short term bets.
24 October 2007, 12:05 AM
#39
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Americans are wealthier today because the Feds are borrowing money to support the economy and allowing a widening trade deficit.
So Americans can feel wealthier, but sooner or later imported goods will get more and more expensive...
and so they will be dependent on their own resources (of which they have quite a lot) and not become buyers on the world market (another problem for other economies such as Japan - which is why Japan and China are so keen to lend the Feds money).
Hedging currency risk is a short term play against adverse shifts of currency and trade, not the longer term economic returns. The best way to avoid currency risk is to invest in Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc and the New Zealand dollar. All currencies that have effectively increased in value over the past 100 years.
Hedging currency risk is a short term play against adverse shifts of currency and trade, not the longer term economic returns. The best way to avoid currency risk is to invest in Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc and the New Zealand dollar. All currencies that have effectively increased in value over the past 100 years.
Of course if everyone did this then the dollar, sterling and euro would devalue even more!
Euro and Rupee are good short term bets.
Euro and Rupee are good short term bets.
Last edited by warrenm2; 24 October 2007 at 12:08 AM.
21 January 2008, 11:38 AM
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The stock market has effectively crashed.... we are now in a bear market and economic picture in the UK does not appear to be any better.
21 January 2008, 07:21 PM
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Down 10% in the last 10 days, and the worst start to the year ever!
Sounds like the DOW will take a big hit tomorrow as well.
The economy built on sand is at last collapsing, and it's great that it's happening while Gordon "no more boom and bust" Brown is at the reigns
Other countries will be able to ride this storm out better than the UK seeing as we have nothing in reserve!
Assets and stocks have been massively over-priced, so no surprise to see the stock market slumping, just like the housing market.
Sounds like the DOW will take a big hit tomorrow as well.
The economy built on sand is at last collapsing, and it's great that it's happening while Gordon "no more boom and bust" Brown is at the reigns
Other countries will be able to ride this storm out better than the UK seeing as we have nothing in reserve! Assets and stocks have been massively over-priced, so no surprise to see the stock market slumping, just like the housing market.
21 January 2008, 07:30 PM
#43
Down 10% in the last 10 days, and the worst start to the year ever!
Sounds like the DOW will take a big hit tomorrow as well.
The economy built on sand is at last collapsing, and it's great that it's happening while Gordon "no more boom and bust" Brown is at the reigns Other countries will be able to ride this storm out better than the UK seeing as we have nothing in reserve!
Assets and stocks have been massively over-priced, so no surprise to see the stock market slumping, just like the housing market.
Sounds like the DOW will take a big hit tomorrow as well.
The economy built on sand is at last collapsing, and it's great that it's happening while Gordon "no more boom and bust" Brown is at the reigns
Other countries will be able to ride this storm out better than the UK seeing as we have nothing in reserve! Assets and stocks have been massively over-priced, so no surprise to see the stock market slumping, just like the housing market.
22 January 2008, 12:28 AM
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Pretty much the only value of shares I can work out is sentiment - what valuation criteria do you use?
PS London housing market went up 3.6% in the last two months
22 January 2008, 01:35 AM
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Down 10% in the last 10 days, and the worst start to the year ever!
Sounds like the DOW will take a big hit tomorrow as well.
The economy built on sand is at last collapsing, and it's great that it's happening while Gordon "no more boom and bust" Brown is at the reigns Other countries will be able to ride this storm out better than the UK seeing as we have nothing in reserve!
Assets and stocks have been massively over-priced, so no surprise to see the stock market slumping, just like the housing market.
Sounds like the DOW will take a big hit tomorrow as well.
The economy built on sand is at last collapsing, and it's great that it's happening while Gordon "no more boom and bust" Brown is at the reigns
Other countries will be able to ride this storm out better than the UK seeing as we have nothing in reserve! Assets and stocks have been massively over-priced, so no surprise to see the stock market slumping, just like the housing market.
22 January 2008, 08:25 AM
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22 January 2008, 08:31 AM
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Yeah prices in London are taking off 
London suffers most as house prices fall | Money | guardian.co.uk
From your favourite read as well Rannoch!... (dated 19th Jan 08)
London was hardest-hit by falling house prices in the final quarter of 2007, a new survey from the Halifax shows today, adding to the gloom in the housing market.
Britain's largest mortgage lender said Greater London led price falls in eight regions across the UK with a hefty drop of 6.3%
Britain's largest mortgage lender said Greater London led price falls in eight regions across the UK with a hefty drop of 6.3%
From your favourite read as well Rannoch!... (dated 19th Jan 08)
look at it plummet, lets hope the dow jones has a good day
22 January 2008, 09:17 AM
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Markets are already recovering, January Sales are good, if £77billion was wiped off yesterday, ultimatly there's £77billion to be made back when the markets recover.
22 January 2008, 09:19 AM
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They predict Dow down.
Think it opens about 2.30? Be interesting to say the least.
Does anyone know what all of this actually means and is it bye bye to all these promised interest rate cuts?
Think it opens about 2.30? Be interesting to say the least.
Does anyone know what all of this actually means and is it bye bye to all these promised interest rate cuts?
22 January 2008, 09:23 AM
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And no it doesn't mean bye bye to the interest rate cuts, they will help save the markets expect to see them cut to maybe 4.75% to increase consumer spending, but inflation is another problem thats on the rise Gov really needs to pull its finger out!!
22 January 2008, 11:14 AM
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Yeah prices in London are taking off
London suffers most as house prices fall | Money | guardian.co.uk
From your favourite read as well Rannoch!... (dated 19th Jan 08)
London suffers most as house prices fall | Money | guardian.co.uk
From your favourite read as well Rannoch!... (dated 19th Jan 08)
Anyway - answer the main question - what is your basis for valuing the equity markets? I am sure that if some had the same level of confidence you have in predicting market trends they could make a fortune as a fund manager. I would personally pay well over the odds to have an adviser who could predict the market valuation with such confidence.
22 January 2008, 11:50 AM
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Anyone care to speculate whether there'll be an election this year now?
About the only thing that could save Mr Brown is an unheard of speedy recovery of all that's cash and bricks and mortar. Or a nice quiet war requiring a state of emergency.
J.
About the only thing that could save Mr Brown is an unheard of speedy recovery of all that's cash and bricks and mortar. Or a nice quiet war requiring a state of emergency.
J.