Mortgage Rates UP ....
13 September 2007, 08:27 AM
#32
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13 September 2007, 10:35 AM
#33
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Can I ask the adviser chaps amongst us where they get their information from?
I work as a Practice Manager (whatever that means) in an IFA practice but would like to start advisory work. Just wondered what you guys find are good sources of information.
I work as a Practice Manager (whatever that means) in an IFA practice but would like to start advisory work. Just wondered what you guys find are good sources of information.
13 September 2007, 10:42 AM
#34
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We are all being conned byt the government on this one it happened more by accident than design.
After the dot-com crash central banks dramatically increased liquidity into the system the housing market should have crashed or moved down in 2003 however with such a large amount of cheap money around the market is artificially being pushed up. To sustain this rise over the past few years the government have also put the brakes on councils giving planning permission creating the supply problem which is also pushed prices up.
The UK is officially 87% untouched greenfield land with another 4% brownfield. It wouldn't be too hard to release another 9% land and practically double the housing in this country. This scenario would be a disaster for policymakers but great for us.
Just look at Gordon Brown's recent statement he is going to increase housing dramatically…………………………by 2020!!!!!!!!!!!!! how ridiculous is that statement. In 2020 no one will even know who Gordon Brown was.
Bottom line:
Our generation is funding our parent's generation. They are the only ones who will benefit from this as they will probably be checking out before the mess.
Our generation is the one left holding the baby I am afraid............
Two-bedroom flat in North London average price £320,000 how the hell is that price going to double in the next 10 years?
After the dot-com crash central banks dramatically increased liquidity into the system the housing market should have crashed or moved down in 2003 however with such a large amount of cheap money around the market is artificially being pushed up. To sustain this rise over the past few years the government have also put the brakes on councils giving planning permission creating the supply problem which is also pushed prices up.
The UK is officially 87% untouched greenfield land with another 4% brownfield. It wouldn't be too hard to release another 9% land and practically double the housing in this country. This scenario would be a disaster for policymakers but great for us.
Just look at Gordon Brown's recent statement he is going to increase housing dramatically…………………………by 2020!!!!!!!!!!!!! how ridiculous is that statement. In 2020 no one will even know who Gordon Brown was.
Bottom line:
Our generation is funding our parent's generation. They are the only ones who will benefit from this as they will probably be checking out before the mess.
Our generation is the one left holding the baby I am afraid............
Two-bedroom flat in North London average price £320,000 how the hell is that price going to double in the next 10 years?
13 September 2007, 10:49 AM
#35
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As you might have guessed, we were anything but upbeat on the property market’s prospects. And today we’ve seen the first signs that a genuine decline has begun.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors reported that more of its members saw house prices fall last month than rise, the first time that’s happened since October 2005 (that was at the tail-end of the last big slowdown in the property market, if you’ll remember).
The number of new buyer inquiries has also fallen at its fastest rate since August 2004 (which again, if you’ll remember, was around about the start of the last big slowdown).
As you can see, the Rics survey has been a pretty good lead indicator in the past. So it seems very likely that we’re at the start of another slump.
Of course, back in 2005, prices took off again. The Bank cut interest rates, boosting buyer confidence, and in the meantime, it hadn’t actually become that much harder to borrow, despite a rising base rate, because banks were still comfortable with making their lending criteria even more relaxed.
So some might expect that the Bank can just bail out the market again - say, in six month’s time or so. But this time around, interest rates are much higher than they were at the start of the last slowdown. Worse still, as the turmoil in the credit markets continues, mortgage rates have been getting further away from the Bank of England’s base rate. Abbey and Halifax have put up their tracker rates in recent days, and it can only be a matter of time before rivals follow them.
In the meantime, the housing market has had a full two years to become even less affordable than it was then. Buy-to-let investors and first-time buyers have had an extra two years to stretch their wallets to their limits and beyond.
Somehow, we think it’ll take more than a quarter-point rate cut to save the property market this time. In fact, our publisher, Bill Bonner, reckons the UK’s coming housing crisis could make the US subprime slump seem tame by comparison.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors reported that more of its members saw house prices fall last month than rise, the first time that’s happened since October 2005 (that was at the tail-end of the last big slowdown in the property market, if you’ll remember).
The number of new buyer inquiries has also fallen at its fastest rate since August 2004 (which again, if you’ll remember, was around about the start of the last big slowdown).
As you can see, the Rics survey has been a pretty good lead indicator in the past. So it seems very likely that we’re at the start of another slump.
Of course, back in 2005, prices took off again. The Bank cut interest rates, boosting buyer confidence, and in the meantime, it hadn’t actually become that much harder to borrow, despite a rising base rate, because banks were still comfortable with making their lending criteria even more relaxed.
So some might expect that the Bank can just bail out the market again - say, in six month’s time or so. But this time around, interest rates are much higher than they were at the start of the last slowdown. Worse still, as the turmoil in the credit markets continues, mortgage rates have been getting further away from the Bank of England’s base rate. Abbey and Halifax have put up their tracker rates in recent days, and it can only be a matter of time before rivals follow them.
In the meantime, the housing market has had a full two years to become even less affordable than it was then. Buy-to-let investors and first-time buyers have had an extra two years to stretch their wallets to their limits and beyond.
Somehow, we think it’ll take more than a quarter-point rate cut to save the property market this time. In fact, our publisher, Bill Bonner, reckons the UK’s coming housing crisis could make the US subprime slump seem tame by comparison.
13 September 2007, 10:56 AM
#36
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Shall I sell now then? 
As you might have guessed, we were anything but upbeat on the property market’s prospects. And today we’ve seen the first signs that a genuine decline has begun.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors reported that more of its members saw house prices fall last month than rise, the first time that’s happened since October 2005 (that was at the tail-end of the last big slowdown in the property market, if you’ll remember).
The number of new buyer inquiries has also fallen at its fastest rate since August 2004 (which again, if you’ll remember, was around about the start of the last big slowdown).
As you can see, the Rics survey has been a pretty good lead indicator in the past. So it seems very likely that we’re at the start of another slump.
Of course, back in 2005, prices took off again. The Bank cut interest rates, boosting buyer confidence, and in the meantime, it hadn’t actually become that much harder to borrow, despite a rising base rate, because banks were still comfortable with making their lending criteria even more relaxed.
So some might expect that the Bank can just bail out the market again - say, in six month’s time or so. But this time around, interest rates are much higher than they were at the start of the last slowdown. Worse still, as the turmoil in the credit markets continues, mortgage rates have been getting further away from the Bank of England’s base rate. Abbey and Halifax have put up their tracker rates in recent days, and it can only be a matter of time before rivals follow them.
In the meantime, the housing market has had a full two years to become even less affordable than it was then. Buy-to-let investors and first-time buyers have had an extra two years to stretch their wallets to their limits and beyond.
Somehow, we think it’ll take more than a quarter-point rate cut to save the property market this time. In fact, our publisher, Bill Bonner, reckons the UK’s coming housing crisis could make the US subprime slump seem tame by comparison.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors reported that more of its members saw house prices fall last month than rise, the first time that’s happened since October 2005 (that was at the tail-end of the last big slowdown in the property market, if you’ll remember).
The number of new buyer inquiries has also fallen at its fastest rate since August 2004 (which again, if you’ll remember, was around about the start of the last big slowdown).
As you can see, the Rics survey has been a pretty good lead indicator in the past. So it seems very likely that we’re at the start of another slump.
Of course, back in 2005, prices took off again. The Bank cut interest rates, boosting buyer confidence, and in the meantime, it hadn’t actually become that much harder to borrow, despite a rising base rate, because banks were still comfortable with making their lending criteria even more relaxed.
So some might expect that the Bank can just bail out the market again - say, in six month’s time or so. But this time around, interest rates are much higher than they were at the start of the last slowdown. Worse still, as the turmoil in the credit markets continues, mortgage rates have been getting further away from the Bank of England’s base rate. Abbey and Halifax have put up their tracker rates in recent days, and it can only be a matter of time before rivals follow them.
In the meantime, the housing market has had a full two years to become even less affordable than it was then. Buy-to-let investors and first-time buyers have had an extra two years to stretch their wallets to their limits and beyond.
Somehow, we think it’ll take more than a quarter-point rate cut to save the property market this time. In fact, our publisher, Bill Bonner, reckons the UK’s coming housing crisis could make the US subprime slump seem tame by comparison.
13 September 2007, 10:57 AM
#37
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Information for what? Rates and policies or how things happen and what might happen next?
13 September 2007, 11:04 AM
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13 September 2007, 11:45 AM
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The actual rates and products are supplied as a daily update for a database compiled by two or three companies who get the info from the lenders. Policy changes are e-mailed directly from the lender. The rest of it comes from training or you pick it up as you go along. You will cover a fair bit of the economics in CeMAP or CFP, but it doesn't really mean much until you start watching the theory translate into base rates, inflation, lender reactions and consumer reactions. When you get a fair idea of how that all fits together you can look at todays position and work out fairly accurately what will happen in the coming weeks and months. There is always a spanner in the works though, because people don't behave in the fashion that models predict....
13 September 2007, 12:10 PM
#40
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Thanks for that. In all honesty I did the FPC exams ages ago and more recently CF2 (for CertPFS) and CF6 (Mortgages). They've now changed CF7 Equity release to ER1. I squeeked a pass on the specimen paper without the coursework.
Not being an adviser means that information learnt isn't used on a daily basis to keep it fresh.
Not being an adviser means that information learnt isn't used on a daily basis to keep it fresh.
13 September 2007, 12:18 PM
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It is harder keeping track of the qualifications required than keeping track of the economy 
Most of the stuff on the papers isn't relevant, but it is difficult to know what you need to remember and what you can forget as soon as the exam is finished Do you have an option in the office to sit in for some client interviews? You would probably learn more doing that than going through the coursework again
Most of the stuff on the papers isn't relevant, but it is difficult to know what you need to remember and what you can forget as soon as the exam is finished Do you have an option in the office to sit in for some client interviews? You would probably learn more doing that than going through the coursework again
13 September 2007, 01:07 PM
#42
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We are currently working on a training strategy that can work around my day to day trauma duties. Sitting on here doesn't help. Still waiting for everyone to realise the holidays are over
13 September 2007, 01:30 PM
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Wrote about on this Thread - so I won't repeat myself. But what Abbey and others are doing is because of the interbank rates and the way that banks raise money to fund mortgage lending.
13 September 2007, 04:40 PM
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If the bank's confidence returns to lend to each other then it will help for certain. It still doesn't cure the underlying problem of poor fiscal policy and crap lending that the banks have been doing for years.
13 September 2007, 10:23 PM
#46
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Goldman.
In response to a few of your items.
You note the telltale signs of a slowdown? No surprise in that as it's the reason interest rates have been on the rise! The BoE have to judge it carefully so as not to collapse the economy yet slow same down.
"mortgage rates have been getting further away from the Bank of England’s base rate". If anyone is on the SVR then they need shooting anyways!
"Abbey and Halifax have put up their tracker rates in recent days". Eh
trackers follow the Base Rate which is unchanged recently.
Subprime blubprime! Who cares?! The Banks etc should not have lent to these ***** in the first place!
I rest my case!
TX.
In response to a few of your items.
You note the telltale signs of a slowdown? No surprise in that as it's the reason interest rates have been on the rise! The BoE have to judge it carefully so as not to collapse the economy yet slow same down.
"mortgage rates have been getting further away from the Bank of England’s base rate". If anyone is on the SVR then they need shooting anyways!
"Abbey and Halifax have put up their tracker rates in recent days". Eh
trackers follow the Base Rate which is unchanged recently.Subprime blubprime! Who cares?! The Banks etc should not have lent to these ***** in the first place!
I rest my case!
TX.
14 September 2007, 01:14 AM
#47
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Instead of offering new trackers at base plus 0.12 they are offering them at base plus 0.22, so this small portion of fact is correct. In the past 5 years I have only seen lenders change their tracker differentials a few times. Not more than a thousand times anyway. Front page of the Daily Mail was spouting the same bollix today. Apparently Mervyn King has admitted exclusively to the Daily Mail that the BoE can no longer control mortgage rates. I couldn't be arsed posting two pages of explanation, but one of two things is true - either Mervyn King has no idea about mortgages or the Daily Mail has presented a small out of context quote as the basis to form financial opinions. Wonder which it could be
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