When's the house market "crash" coming...
25 March 2006, 11:36 PM
#32
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Originally Posted by TopBanana
Bubbles always burst!
look at the graph!!!!!!!!!
if you had the cash to hold the house there is no time in the last 50 years you would not have been happy to have bought a house.
its not a bubble its a upward trend with occasional dips.
25 March 2006, 11:54 PM
#33
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Perhaps I'm misunderstading you, but an upward trend does not preclude a bubble. The stock market has been in an upward trend for many many years, but we saw the fallout from the last bubble just a few years ago.
Of course, if you buy a house to stay in it, you'll be just fine in the long-run. But if you're a FTB or want to seriously upsize, now's not the time.
Of course, if you buy a house to stay in it, you'll be just fine in the long-run. But if you're a FTB or want to seriously upsize, now's not the time.
26 March 2006, 08:28 AM
#34
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Originally Posted by TopBanana
Perhaps I'm misunderstading you, but an upward trend does not preclude a bubble. The stock market has been in an upward trend for many many years, but we saw the fallout from the last bubble just a few years ago.
Of course, if you buy a house to stay in it, you'll be just fine in the long-run. But if you're a FTB or want to seriously upsize, now's not the time.
Of course, if you buy a house to stay in it, you'll be just fine in the long-run. But if you're a FTB or want to seriously upsize, now's not the time.
welll lets look at this in 12 months and see how much house prices would have gone up.
26 March 2006, 08:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Tiggs
its not a bubble its a upward trend with occasional dips.
A bubble is exactly what it is, just like the housing bubbles we've seen in the past, and the bubbles which happen in other asset markets.
Interesting to see that David Cameron is making a speach on the housing market on Monday, but I dont know what he'll suggest as a solution.
There is a growing inequality at the heart of British life which politicians desperately need to address
How can we bridge the widening gulf in our society between those who benefit from being on the property ladder and those who are kept off?
How can we bridge the widening gulf in our society between those who benefit from being on the property ladder and those who are kept off?
26 March 2006, 09:34 AM
#36
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Originally Posted by Petem95
Many economists did predict the market would crash happen sooner, but as FTB's began to get priced out, they were replaced by BTL which has been given massive coverage by get-rich-quick property programmes and general media interest.
The market has clearly turned - even by Halfiax's (known to put a postive spin on everything) own figures my county (Somerset) fell by ~10% last year, but as Northern areas have continued to show growth, the overall change for the country was something like +3%.
Well if FTB's arent buying them, then people who already own homes are buying them and probably letting them out.
Theres still a surprising amount of people out there who are a bit behind the times - one of my mates was telling me about his "great idea" - hes going to "buy a flat and let it out, and make a mint"
- he reckons the 155k flat will rent for 650 a month, so thats a 4% yield before repairs, and assuming its ALWAYS being rented.... I pointed out property prices are likely to fall over the next few years, but he comes back with "they always go up in the long-term" - quote straight the property programmes 
The smart money has been in emerging markets for the last few years - India's stock market was up something like 20% last year, China 40%, Japan 25% - so if he put his 50k deposit into these markets, and say they rise on average 15% over the next 5years, then he'd double it to 100k...
The market has clearly turned - even by Halfiax's (known to put a postive spin on everything) own figures my county (Somerset) fell by ~10% last year, but as Northern areas have continued to show growth, the overall change for the country was something like +3%.
Well if FTB's arent buying them, then people who already own homes are buying them and probably letting them out.
Theres still a surprising amount of people out there who are a bit behind the times - one of my mates was telling me about his "great idea" - hes going to "buy a flat and let it out, and make a mint"
- he reckons the 155k flat will rent for 650 a month, so thats a 4% yield before repairs, and assuming its ALWAYS being rented.... I pointed out property prices are likely to fall over the next few years, but he comes back with "they always go up in the long-term" - quote straight the property programmes The smart money has been in emerging markets for the last few years - India's stock market was up something like 20% last year, China 40%, Japan 25% - so if he put his 50k deposit into these markets, and say they rise on average 15% over the next 5years, then he'd double it to 100k...
Its all very well saying dump £50k into Indian/Chinese stockmarkets but these are not transparent markets, have you been to either country?
£50k of BRIC stocks can fall to £5 very easily. This WILL NEVER happen to UK property over the long term ie when have you seen a £200k house for £20? Anywhere in the world?
One could look at managed funds investing in BRIC countries, but on the whole they don't even manage to match the index return. Some might but you have to pick the right one from 1000s
Also the £50k invested in property will give you a roof over your head aswell, the stocks won't.
You should only put £50k into BRIC shares if a) you are a prof trader or b) you have £250k of other investments aswell, not including your home
Believe me I am not a bull on UK property, there will be a correction at some point. We will have a recession at some point, the question is can you weather the storm? If you can you'll come out tops.
26 March 2006, 10:15 AM
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Originally Posted by Tiggs
welll lets look at this in 12 months and see how much house prices would have gone up.
26 March 2006, 02:52 PM
#38
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Originally Posted by Deep Singh
Believe me I am not a bull on UK property, there will be a correction at some point. We will have a recession at some point, the question is can you weather the storm? If you can you'll come out tops.
26 March 2006, 04:22 PM
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There is a key difference between the historical statistics related to house prices compared to average earnings and the current situation. Since independance was granted to the Bank of England in setting interest rate policy, there has been less "boom and bust" and there appears to be more of a long term trend for stable interest rates, lower than the historic average. If interest rates went up 5% tomorrow, there would be mass defaulting on mortgage repayments, mass repossessions, house prices would drop like a stone and there would be negative equity, just like end of the '80s, early '90s.. As it stands people can afford higher mortgages because the rates are lower than the historical average. The current house price to average earnings ratio does not necessarily indicate a bubble, more of an adjustment to reflect what people hope will be a long term lower interest rate. I don't think there will be a crash, some minor adjustments followed by years of slow increases in house prices pretty much in line with average earnings.
26 March 2006, 04:37 PM
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Originally Posted by TopBanana
Housing market corrections take a good deal longer than 12 months as you well know, and this one hasn't even started yet!
Nationwide release their monthly figures next week, and from the tone of this article in the Guardian it sounds like they may be paving the way for news of falls again;
Originally Posted by Guardian
Britain's housing market is close to a 'turning point,' as the boost from last summer's rate cut wears off and high prices begin to bite, the Nationwide warns. As the building society prepares to release its monthly house-price index this week, it says the winter mini-boom, which has seen five successive months of price rises, will fade before the summer.
27 March 2006, 02:52 PM
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Put our house up for sale recently and nothing.Market seems dead.
Don't know whether its because we are selling ours but I just seem to see so many for sale boards up.
Don't know where everyones huge incomes/ability to save huge deposit comes from.Civil servants at my wife's place of work get about £15/£16000 a year.These are grown men with families to support in a respectable job.Some are the only household income
Doesn't really add up the wage to mortgage equation.
Don't know whether its because we are selling ours but I just seem to see so many for sale boards up.
Don't know where everyones huge incomes/ability to save huge deposit comes from.Civil servants at my wife's place of work get about £15/£16000 a year.These are grown men with families to support in a respectable job.Some are the only household income
Doesn't really add up the wage to mortgage equation.
27 March 2006, 03:07 PM
#42
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Blimey!
Do people really need to cut back on holidays and other luxuries when buying a house? Ah poor First time buyer! Does FTB want something without having to work for it.....poor diddums! Maybe Gordon can GIVE you all 10k to get started!
Work harder, save harder, don't spunk cash on stupid 18mpg cars....job done!
FFS I'm just trying to buy my third house and can't afford a trip to the 'ring, can't get my old clutter serviced, MOt'd and taxed as I have better things to spend my money on!
Do people really need to cut back on holidays and other luxuries when buying a house? Ah poor First time buyer! Does FTB want something without having to work for it.....poor diddums! Maybe Gordon can GIVE you all 10k to get started!
Work harder, save harder, don't spunk cash on stupid 18mpg cars....job done!
FFS I'm just trying to buy my third house and can't afford a trip to the 'ring, can't get my old clutter serviced, MOt'd and taxed as I have better things to spend my money on!
27 March 2006, 03:10 PM
#43
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Been looking around at new houses recently but the vast majority of the houses wer have been looking at a over priced for what you get these days.
Had ours on the market late last year and only had one interested person, and he didn't even bother to show up!
Have noticed a lot of houses don't seem to be selling round our way, especially the more expensive properties.
Had ours on the market late last year and only had one interested person, and he didn't even bother to show up!
Have noticed a lot of houses don't seem to be selling round our way, especially the more expensive properties.
27 March 2006, 03:20 PM
#44
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If your house is not selling, it's too expensive.
Most estate agents around here are saying, that they have more buyers than houses. In fact our chain fell apart last week, and the lowest priced property was put back on the market and sold to a FTB within a week.
Most estate agents around here are saying, that they have more buyers than houses. In fact our chain fell apart last week, and the lowest priced property was put back on the market and sold to a FTB within a week.
27 March 2006, 03:23 PM
#45
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Originally Posted by davyboy
Blimey!
Do people really need to cut back on holidays and other luxuries when buying a house? Ah poor First time buyer! Does FTB want something without having to work for it.....poor diddums! Maybe Gordon can GIVE you all 10k to get started!
Work harder, save harder, don't spunk cash on stupid 18mpg cars....job done!
FFS I'm just trying to buy my third house and can't afford a trip to the 'ring, can't get my old clutter serviced, MOt'd and taxed as I have better things to spend my money on!
Do people really need to cut back on holidays and other luxuries when buying a house? Ah poor First time buyer! Does FTB want something without having to work for it.....poor diddums! Maybe Gordon can GIVE you all 10k to get started!
Work harder, save harder, don't spunk cash on stupid 18mpg cars....job done!
FFS I'm just trying to buy my third house and can't afford a trip to the 'ring, can't get my old clutter serviced, MOt'd and taxed as I have better things to spend my money on!
27 March 2006, 03:29 PM
#49
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Hmm.All similar properties to ours are priced at a similar level.Ours is nothing out of the ordinary and we chose not to price it 50% more than everyone else's.
We have about 70k to put down as a deposit and despite having a fair income,in excess of £55k between us.Next step up the ladder doesn't offer anything magnificent.
House prices are a nonsense,so is the market and though I shouldn't wish it on anyone,fingers will be burnt
We have about 70k to put down as a deposit and despite having a fair income,in excess of £55k between us.Next step up the ladder doesn't offer anything magnificent.
House prices are a nonsense,so is the market and though I shouldn't wish it on anyone,fingers will be burnt
27 March 2006, 03:30 PM
#50
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Originally Posted by davyboy
If your house is not selling, it's too expensive.
Most estate agents around here are saying, that they have more buyers than houses. In fact our chain fell apart last week, and the lowest priced property was put back on the market and sold to a FTB within a week.
Most estate agents around here are saying, that they have more buyers than houses. In fact our chain fell apart last week, and the lowest priced property was put back on the market and sold to a FTB within a week.
27 March 2006, 03:30 PM
#51
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Originally Posted by TopBanana
I'd guess SlimJ is in the south-east and you're oop north davyboy?
Where does the South East start?
27 March 2006, 03:57 PM
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From my recent experience (currently waiting to exachange) of trying to sell a typical FTB property I'd say there was a pretty good mix of all types of buyers out there. The majority of viewers were FTB - though we've eventually ended up selling to an investor. The investors that came around had a much more realistic idea of what you could get for your money - the FTBs seemed to think you could get a palatial penthouse for the money they were wanting to spend.
It's a shame that everyone talks about buying 'property' these days and no one talks about buying a 'home'. We're buying a place we plan to make our home for the next 10+ years. The market doesn't really affect our decision - we sold ours for 6% under the asking price and bought at 6% under the asking price. If the market crashes then so be it - I'm not willing to live my life around what might happen tomorrow.
It's a shame that everyone talks about buying 'property' these days and no one talks about buying a 'home'. We're buying a place we plan to make our home for the next 10+ years. The market doesn't really affect our decision - we sold ours for 6% under the asking price and bought at 6% under the asking price. If the market crashes then so be it - I'm not willing to live my life around what might happen tomorrow.
27 March 2006, 05:10 PM
#56
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I want to buy a home and I know what I am looking for, however for a 2 bedroom house I cannot afford to get a mortgage on my own, and I do not want a flat/apartment.
Unless I get involved in a rent to buy from the housing association, I cannot see myself getting on the ladder
and these too are very expensive, and I have my doubts - I cannot see how the half-rent to the council will get paid unless I win the lottery or I suddenly my salary quadruples 
Does anyone know the percentage on how many homes actually end up being owned on a shared ownership scheme?
Many people just don't have the chance and I certainly don't want to move up north
...moving abroad might be a solution, Cyprus seems okay but I would honestly miss this country too much and could'nt leave my family.
so my choices are very limited and it's a bit scarey
Unless I get involved in a rent to buy from the housing association, I cannot see myself getting on the ladder
and these too are very expensive, and I have my doubts - I cannot see how the half-rent to the council will get paid unless I win the lottery or I suddenly my salary quadruples Does anyone know the percentage on how many homes actually end up being owned on a shared ownership scheme?
Many people just don't have the chance and I certainly don't want to move up north
...moving abroad might be a solution, Cyprus seems okay but I would honestly miss this country too much and could'nt leave my family.so my choices are very limited and it's a bit scarey
27 March 2006, 07:07 PM
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Originally Posted by davyboy
I WANT a London mews style home in W1.