GULP !

Just been doing some research on the use of oil. Has anyone else heard of "Hubbert's Peak" ? Basically it's a theory regards the supply of oil which means that big changes in oil supply are not 30 odd years away, but may be here anytime in the next few years. Oil supply has a sort of bell-shaped distribution curve. As more oilfields are discovered, more oil is pumped. However there comes a time when the amount of oil pumped starts to decline, the top of the bell. This is because oilfields become exhausted and not enough new capacity to make up the deficit. As oil demand is inflexible and seemingly ever increasing, when the drop of starts, prices will increase significantly as supply cannot meet demand.

Hubbert came up with this theory in 1956 and predicted US peak oil prediction would be in 1970. It turned out his redictions were correct, US oil production has been decreasing for the last 34 years !

quick quote
"There is a growing consensus that the crucial turning point in output will probably occur in the second half of this decade, in or around 2007.

The crucial remaining question is: how fast will the gap then grow between supply and demand? All other things being equal, the decline side of the curve will be a mirror image of the initial increase. But of course there will be mitigating factors, such as energy conservation measures or the development of substitutes to oil as a primary energy source, ranging from hydrogen to nuclear to solar.

But the odds seem overwhelming that none of this will happen in time to head off an energy crisis that will dwarf anything we have ever experienced."

Here's a link to an article.
Link

 

This book is worth a read for anyone interested in such matters:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/...940816-8313419

As Lomborg points out the stone age didn't end because they ran out of stones and equally the amount of oil left may not be that very important, we might move on long before it runs out.

 

GO NUCLEAR (Keep me in a job )

Hum, nuclear powered scooby,

No change their then

 

I wont have much of a problem, just keep the scoob at home (with a full tank of optimax) & use the warrior, if the worst comes to the worst i could you my supply of red thats used for the dumpers

haha

 

There is no real evidence that at the moment demand is significantly outstripping the supply of oil - in fact current oil demand could be comfortably satisfied as many OPEC members are currently pumping below their quota - the international energy agency identified 2.5 million barrels spare capacity currently left untapped.

The current price hike is because India, China and the U.S. are stockpiling and actively buying, because of fears - not that the oil is about to run out - but of political problems in the Middle East may cause short-term supply disruptions.

I'm going to keep driving my scoob while you guys finger the worry beads

 

"at the current rate we have 43 years left !!!."

We have been running out of oil since the invention of the internal combustion engine I remember them saying in the seventies that oil reserves would be consumed by 2000. Well, we're still running our cars are n't we

 

red has to come from oil as well, so does parrifin and kerosine. oh so use cooking oil seems to work!

 

There is a very large amount of coal which has been left in the ground, great source of all kinds of things that we depend on.

Les

 

pslewis, I take back all I ever said about you

 

friendly word of advice here imlach...

there have been alot of threads on oil price/usage lately and everytime you come on to the thread with, what is at heart a sensible message that we should all be sensible about our usage of oil (and in particular petrol).

But you do always tend to come in a bit two-footed and throw implied accusations in that all the people who are say complaining about petrol prices are automatically guilty of wasteful petrol usage which is not nessecarily true. If you didnt appear to jump down peoples throats they might be more receptive to what you have to say.

Just my 2p.

 

..and when you're a bit older and have more "history" on here, maybe you'll be qualified to dish out advice Like I give two hoots

I'll return your 2p if you would be so kind to provide a forwarding address

 

What car do you drive imlach, and how many miles do you do each year???

 

Roll your eyes all you like DW. Any person on this planet who just isn't interested in conservation of resources seems to be, in some ways, selfish. What argument is there to justify non-conservation?

As I have said many a time, I'm just trying to promote a viewpoint of conservation, which DOES NOT mean a ban/denial of use. I just personally think that a lot of people, if they applied a little bit of forethought, could do a little bit more for the environment.

What, exactly, is wrong with that?

 

Everybody knows the oil is running out, Imlach.
Everybody knows about pollution.
Everybody knows about global warming.
We also know about Aids, cancer and syphilis.

We're not stupid.

But this is a forum for car drivers, and it's a little cyber-place where people can come and forget about all the ills of the world for 5 minutes. Your concerns are commendable in the real world, but it would appear that people don't want to hear your preaching here - it kinda spoils the fun. Like placard-waving lesbians at a Miss World contest.

I avoid plastic bags as much as possible, I don't eat veal and I buy dolphin-friendly tuna. And, while I am writing this, my car is parked up quietly not consuming any natural resources. The same is true for all the other selfish, revved-up petrol heads reading this - you see we do sometimes take a break from wrecking the world for your grandchildren. Everyone can talk about times they burnt some car off, or hung it out around a corner, or dumped the clutch at 6000 RPM to see how much smoke they made - whatever. The point is that most people drive sensibly most of the time - they just like to actually enjoy their motoring every now and then.

It's a short life, Imlach, so what, exactly, is wrong with that?

 

Uh-huh, and that's fine, but I didn't start this thread, and if you read the title, it is about oil reserves and their finite nature. So, all points related to that are worthy of discussion.

If you want to ignore the "ills of the world" and live a detached Scoobynet existance, don't partake in threads such as these.

Simple really.

 

Nothing lasts for ever when it is not renewable in our time. As the world becomes more "modernised", more and more energy is used and it must eventually run out.

The prospect is frightening and the wars we see now are nothing compared to what is likely in the future.

Les

 

It's not too far away.

Another 15 years or so when our gas supply has run out and the exsisting coal mines are shut we will be dependant on pipelines from eastern block countries for 75% of our energy supplies.
These pipelines will run through miles of terrorist ridden countries. Not a pleasant thought. As for price, when the British supplies are depleted one eastern block company owned by one man has 63% of all Europe and Russia's gas reserves.

Lee

 

I,m with Imlach on this one. We could all do a lot more to protect and preserve the environment. Just take a look at the packaging that comes from buying in supermarkets. Most of it is totally unnecessary and usually is made from plastic which ultimately comes from oil. We just live in a wasteful world.

Much emphasis is put on recycling these days but if such needless amounts of packaging were not made there wouldnt be so much of a need for this either.

As for how long oil will last. I started in the gas/oil industry 26 years ago. At that time wecwere told there wwas enough oil to last the UK 27 years at the rate it was being used then.

Chip.

 

Jye, I believe pisslewis was / is employed in the R&D or design of nuclear weapons not Power Stations.

I say why dont we just join the yanks and go an invade a country with better reserves than us.......!

 

We should all be riding mopeds then - 115mpg!

 

I studied this at uni recently.........presently we have 40 or so years of oil reserve. But this figure has remained the same for the last 40 years.

We would have only 40 years left if we didnt continue to find more oil fields and improve on our extraction methods.

Dont panic just yet............

 

have you done any homework on my age or are you guessing?...

... but either way I'm not really fussed - more what you'd call curious. So fair enough I'll wander off now. I gave some advice and it was always going to be up to you wether you wanted to listen or not. I don't bear any mailice in any direction - your's or otherwise so feel free to keep the 2p (or is that wasteful of me since your not going to use it )

Have fun all !

 

What about buying petrol as an investment?

 

Just to satisfy your curiousity, I remember a post about insurance quotes and you were 22.

 

You can trade in US pump price futures on IgIndex.

I'm currently thinking about shorting Crude (be it Brent or West Texas).....thinking it may fall soon from the recent highs.

 

Imlach,i was thinking more of having a huge great f**k-off tank in my back garden.

 

Dear Imlach,

>if you read the title, it is about oil reserves and their finite nature. So, all
>points related to that are worthy of discussion.

And many more besides, it seems.

>If you want to ignore the "ills of the world" and live a detached Scoobynet
>existance, don't partake in threads such as these. Simple really.

You're obfuscating. I didn't say anything about wanting to live in a detached world. Blithe sarcasm is a weak stance - I am disapointed that you resorted to it so quickly. Your ideals have more substance than that - a pity you devalue them with glib dismissal of anyone who questions you. You asked what was wrong with your continually "promoting a viewpoint of conservation", so I told you. It's not your message that's inappropriate - I believe I made that clear. It's a bit like Frank Carson - it's the way you tell 'em.

Don't ask a question if you can't handle an answer.

Simple really.

 

..but Wr1 Wannabe, you seem to want this to be a light hearted forum. It is NSR - therefore ANYTHING is up for discussion, be it serious or non-serious.

You seem to be taking it awfully seriously for a light-hearted guy After all, you did say :

If that's how you see it, stay out of this one

 

The fuel would go bad before you made a good return

 

>You seem to be taking it awfully seriously for a light-hearted guy

Good point.

I'll leave you to your frustration.