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Old 03 August 2001, 10:18 AM
  #31  
XRS
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Robski's right. When I took out my first mortgage interest rates were 9% and quickly went up to 15%. I was recalculating my personal budget virtually every month!

I can't see rates going that high for a long while yet, but there is a conflict between businesses who need to borrow cheaply to invest and housebuyers who should IMHO pay a higher rate so that the 7 or 8 savers who provide the funds for each mortgage can get a decent return rather than spend the money and help increase inflation.

Old 03 August 2001, 10:19 AM
  #32  
GCollier
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I think that buyer confidence is a much more important factor than interest rates per se. If a recession really starts to bite, then people will be reluctant to increase their debt, regardless.

XRS - There are plenty of investment vehicles which should on average provide better returns than a building society account, where the money is typically lent in mortgages. Why should artificially high rates of interest be paid to risk free savers, at the expense of people trying to buy somewhere to live?

Gary.

[This message has been edited by GCollier (edited 03 August 2001).]
Old 03 August 2001, 11:54 AM
  #33  
robski
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Gary,

agreed if you have a basic understanding of Economics

unfortunately, the unwashed masses do not, tell them they can borrow more miney cheaper, and they will.

Feelgood factor is also there. What worries me is that there are a lot of people who do not realise how much even a £60,000 mortage costs per year if interest rates hit double figures. Dont forget our current moretgage rates are the lowest for approx 40 years. Thats a long time, what was the average rate over this time I wonder!?

robski
Old 03 August 2001, 02:38 PM
  #34  
dba
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Halifax have just released details showing that prices are still going up!!

ok so they are still disagreements between themselves and the Nationwide-one being based in the north and one mainly in the south,but its still not all doom and gloom.

I would agree that the economic outlook is bleaker than it has been for a while and that the City has been overly optimistic for to long,but it is still possible that this cyclical dip is not as deep as previous dips.
The economy is stronger,the Gov has cash to spare and house prices have not quite gone to the silly levels they did before.

Actually they aren't afr short.At 5 times ave salary in the South some are forecasting a rapid slump.

I think it will be a slow burn down and not as tearful as 93.
Old 03 August 2001, 02:58 PM
  #35  
camk
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Mattstant,
Surely the stockmarket beats house prices when you look at the average rise. The housing price issue in the UK is actually mainly a SE England problem with small pockets of issues elsewhere e.g. Bristol & Edinburgh.
If you pick the SE only as your example then I'll pick XYZ company in NAZDAQ thats up 3000% in tha last 5 years.
Too many of you guys living down south forget that there is life north of Watford.

Regards
Cammy
Old 03 August 2001, 03:16 PM
  #36  
fast bloke
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you should all move to Northern Ireland. Still plenty of IT and other work going on. I bought my house 3 years ago for 86k. 4 bedroom, 3 reception, double garage, 3 bathrooms, 4 car driveway, half acre of garden. 20 minutes from Belfast city centre in rush hour. 10 mins to Belfast City Airport, so heathrow is less than an hour away. One of the guys up the street is a pilot for BA and finds it more convenient to live in Belfast and commute to Heathrow than to live in London and commute to Heathrow. 150k will still buy you a massive house in a good area
Old 03 August 2001, 03:39 PM
  #37  
camk
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Fast Bloke,
SSSSSSHHHHHHHHHH
Old 03 August 2001, 05:23 PM
  #38  
Tiggs
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prices in the s.e. will continue to rise, maybe slower than the recent pass, but they will rise.

the situation with earnings to prices is not comparable with the earley 90's, very different situation right now.

dont think that because you cant afford a first house that there are no first time buyers.

i've plenty of clients buying their first house right now, they are older than they might have been 10 years ago and prob earn more but i can assure you they are still buying up houses.

if you have somewhere with land there is no end of developers that will buy it up to build small homes that they are confidant of shifting.

in fact the local paper tonight is full of 2 bed flats that have been built and are now nearly all sold for £220ish plus for dinky places- and there are loadssssss of the things

at least imoh

tiggs

[This message has been edited by Tiggs (edited 03 August 2001).]
Old 04 August 2001, 10:58 AM
  #39  
SD
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Unhappy

Really interesting thread guys.

Well I'm in the position where I'd like to shortly buy my first place ( before I get my next car ) and I'll be buying on my own.

I live in Surrey at the mo and all I'm looking for is 2 bedrooms and a garage. I have a good job in IT and I've also just started my own company which is starting to supplement my income and I still can't find anything affordable. Obviously I'm looking to move further south (maybe just down to the Sussex border) so that work is still commutable.

What's scary is that I've only seen a couple of suitable property (flats) that I can just afford. If interest rates were to rise when I had the mortgage then I'd be stuffed. People chirp on about how much their property has risen in value but it's meaningless because unless they move to a cheaper area or buy a smaller house then they'll be spending just as much on a new place.

I'm seriously coming round to the opinion that I should grow the business the best I can, save up a load, and then move oop north to somewhere a lot cheaper. The SE is over-rated. It's too crowded, house prices are unrealistic, and the commute to London (used to work in St James's square) completely shafts the quality of life.

Despair beckons.
Old 04 August 2001, 08:26 PM
  #40  
dba
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Simon,

As you know Im moving Epsom to Leeds.Looking at 3 bed semis that are still 180k,even in Leeds!!

get a lot more for ya money though,but its not the same as a 10k and an outside bog any more matey!!

And in 20 years ya make thruppence 'hapeny.

Better quality of life but i will miss the SE,love it to be honest.
Old 04 August 2001, 11:04 PM
  #41  
SD
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Dave,

Sister-in-law-to-be-(on-saturday)'s-brother runs a large Estate Agency in Derby and was featured on a panorama a couple of years ago comparing south and northh property prices. He highlighted a house on his books that was in a nice part of Derby. 4 bed detached, double garage, ensuite etc, 110k.

I know you are paid less, but I'm sure the houseprice-earnings ratio for someone like myself will about twice as good as it is here.

My brother will move up there in a few years, I have few friends left in this corner of the country so really I see little to keep me down here. There aren't even any good driving roads here (except Ranmore)!
Old 05 August 2001, 02:16 PM
  #42  
dba
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I 'ate Derby!! as bad as Stoke!!

Seriously,there are **** holes oop North and comparable residential areas to Epsom/Banstead will cost mate.Harrogate/Ilkley/York/North Leeds all carry a premium not to dissimilar to down here.

But as you say,ya can live in Knottingley and buy 2 acres and a mansion for 50k.

Old 05 August 2001, 07:42 PM
  #43  
Shark
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Umm, very interesting.

Here's my 2p's worth.

My girlfriend moved in with me last November, from Manchester to London Colney, just north of the top of London, for those that don't know Hertfordshire.

Her house, 3 bed, large lounge, possible off street parking at rear. £31.5k, just sold after 10 months, only 1 offer prior to current buyer.

My house, tiny 2 bed, small lounge (just fits the widescreen and surround sound DVD ), small garden £132k, local estate agent tells me they could sell mine within 2 days

Thats £100k difference, or about £500 per mile

I guess my point is that its all relative. We want a bigger place, but the fact that I bought mine new in 96 for £84k and it's gone up £48k is useless. The new houses we look at have done the same.

Perhaps I should look to a place in north herts where I can get a train to work and save a shead load. It takes me often 30 mins to do 10 miles to work in the car, that’s just 20 mph – should I ditch the WRX and get a bike?

Another point about Hertfordshire, my mate just moved to Bedfordshire from herts. The same house he bought right on the county border in herts would be £25k more – where is the sense in that?

Good luck to anyone trying to get on the ladder, you'll need it.

David
Old 06 August 2001, 10:33 AM
  #44  
fast bloke
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Cool

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:<HR>Originally posted by Tiggs:
<B>
i've plenty of clients buying their first house right now, they are older than they might have been 10 years ago...
[/quote]

Probably about 10 years older?
Old 06 August 2001, 02:09 PM
  #45  
Tiggs
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fast bloke,

was wondering when that would happen

allways someone!

tiggs
Old 06 August 2001, 05:32 PM
  #46  
GCollier
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Shark - I know what you mean about the Herts/Beds border. The price difference is because the schooling in Herts is meant to be better.

Gary.
Old 07 August 2001, 07:09 PM
  #47  
Chris L
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Exclamation

Interesting stuff this guys. I'm in a similar situation. I currently live in South London and bought my 2 bed flat about 4 years ago for £52000. Now I reckon it will sell for about £130000. Very nice I hear you cry, but if I want to stay in this area and buy a house, I'm looking at a minimum of £200000. I too work in IT, I have a very well paid job and I could afford it, but I'm not sure (like Gary) that I want to saddle myself with that much debt.

As most of you know, Sally (aka Scoobychick) is my other 'alf ( ) and she lives in Hertfordshire - that has been a real eye opener!! Speak to the locals and they say that prices have gone through the roof - when I look around I can't believe how affordable it is. Basically, to get the sort of place I was looking at in South London (2 bed, garage etc, nothing flash), I reckon I wouldn't need to shell out more than £140K - that's a considerable saving and my journey to work is no different (maybe an extra 10 mins or so) and the area is so much nicer. I really am of the opinion now that London and the surrounding areas of South London are severely over-rated.

We were on holiday last week, narrowboating through the midlands and the prices were incredible. Areas such as Daventry and Rugby it is possible to pick up modern 3/4 detached houses with garages, gardens, en-suite etc etc for around £150K. I'm seriously thinking about going further up into the Midlands. It is a glorious area, loads of great small villages and I'm really beginning to think why I should stay in the South East. It would mean changing jobs, but I'm prepared to consider it for the quality of life.

Chris

[This message has been edited by Chris L (edited 07 August 2001).]
Old 07 August 2001, 08:25 PM
  #48  
Toonman
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We just signed today for a 4 bed, 3 bathroom (1 ensuite), 3 reception room, double garaged, detached house in the North East of England. Gardens front and rear, 4 car driveway.

We're 10 mins from decent shopping, 35 mins from Newcastle-upon-Tyne, 40 mins from York, 55 mins from Leeds, 15 mins from nice beaches, 15 mins from the North Yorkshire Moors and 30 mins from the Yorkshire Dales. Great driving roads? Take your pick!

Price? £98,000...

Live in the South of England? You've got to be joking!
Old 07 August 2001, 08:32 PM
  #49  
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Oh, it's a low crime area and handy for getting to work. Takes 13 mins to do the 13 miles to work in the morning "rush hour" and about 10 mins to get back home in the evening. Last time I was in London, it took me longer than that to find the Scooby in the car park...
Old 08 August 2001, 08:14 AM
  #50  
MarkO
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We went through the same thing, Ed. Our first house in Godalming (apparently, brick-for-brick, one of the most expensive places in the country) sold for £145k - a two-up, two-down victorian cottage with no parking, no garage and (when we sold it) no kitchen. Ridiculous!

We wanted a family house, but anything in Surrey was just ridiculously priced. Half a million for an average 4-bed house with a small garden? No, ta! So we moved to Kent, and got a lovely house with loads of space for about 1/3 of what it would have cost in Godalming. Kent prices are shooting up - not least because of the rail link which (when it eventually opens) will put central London within a 35-minute train hop from Ashford. Comparing to houses which have sold recently in (and near) our road, our property has increased in value by some 42% in 18 months, meaning that should the worst happen we've got an 'equity cushion'.

Okay, so the commute's a bit longer but it's cheaper and simpler than the one I used to do from Guildford. But with London just an hour away, it's less likely that anyone in IT will find 'emselves out of work for long. I've been in my current contract for 3.5 years, and despite not returning a single call in 6 months, I still get 3-4 calls a week from agencies with potential positions!

We've also considered moving north (Scotland) but decided against it, for now at least. If we moved to Aberdeen we could get a 6-bed, 7-reception-room Georgian manor house with 8 acres of woodland to boot for £275k (that's a real example I'm referring to), so finding a house like our current one (which is all we'd need) for about £120k wouldn't be hard. We'd instantly shrink our mortgage to something tiny, and I'd still be able to earn about half what I'm on now (so our quality of life would improve). But the biggest problem is that my wife & I like the S.E., and if we did move north we'd probably never be able to move back.

It's a hard choice, but as long as you don't ridiculously overstretch yourself, buying property will almost always be a sound move. If you're really worried about interest rates, get a 5.25% lock-in mortgage and smile if interest rates rise. Even if we joined the Euro, rates aren't much likely to drop below 3-4%, so you won't be throwing money away...

[This message has been edited by MarkO (edited 08 August 2001).]
Old 08 August 2001, 08:56 AM
  #51  
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dba, if you're going to work in Leeds, you could consider where I live.Approx 30 miles from Leeds in the Pennines, but not Yorkshire!

I work between Leeds and Bradford. 45 mins to an hour excellent Scoob driving there and back on empty roads if you time it right. Early in, early out.


4 bed detached 3 storey houses ensuites, gardens garages etc 2 years old, £150k, but you can always shout them down.
Old 08 August 2001, 01:29 PM
  #52  
blubell
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<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:<HR>Originally posted by MarkO:
<B>
It's a hard choice, but as long as you don't ridiculously overstretch yourself, buying property will almost always be a sound move. If you're really worried about interest rates, get a 5.25% lock-in mortgage and smile if interest rates rise. Even if we joined the Euro, rates aren't much likely to drop below 3-4%, so you won't be throwing money away...

[This message has been edited by MarkO (edited 08 August 2001).][/quote]

This is always the key, not leat because it then gives you the flexibility to make over payments, thus substantially reducing the amount of interest you pay and the length of time until you own it lock stock and barel.

On current predictions we should be able to buy our smallholding and 'retire' to the country without any debt in about 5 years

Old 08 August 2001, 02:50 PM
  #53  
dba
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<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:<HR>Originally posted by BarryK:
<B>dba, if you're going to work in Leeds, you could consider where I live.Approx 30 miles from Leeds in the Pennines, but not Yorkshire!

I work between Leeds and Bradford. 45 mins to an hour excellent Scoob driving there and back on empty roads if you time it right. Early in, early out.


4 bed detached 3 storey houses ensuites, gardens garages etc 2 years old, £150k, but you can always shout them down. [/quote]


yeh,looking at all areas but Mrs wants to near family and we like cities!!

got ya email btw and cant reply to the second one cus Lineones server is down again!!
Old 08 August 2001, 03:55 PM
  #54  
Jerome
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Unhappy

Up until last December I lived in Farnborough, Hants for 4 years. I then moved to central London (where I work) because I was fed up with South West Trains and spending 3 hours (at least, often 4-5 hours) a day commuting - at a cost of £3000 a year!

I thought prices in Farnborough were bonkers, until I saw central London prices. For the price of a studio here I could have a 5 bed detached house, double garage etc in Farnborough.

It seems that South West/West of London has the worst train service, but the highest prices. It's beyond me. North and East of London housing is cheaper (for an equally nice house in a similar area) but the train service is much much better. Go figure.

The average house price in London is now £205K. With a 5% deposit, you need to be earning £55k to get a mortgage! The average salary is about £21k.

I always felt house prices outstrip inflation/wage increases, but at the moment the situation seems ridiculous. I doubt I will ever buy a house in the UK. Regardless of earnings. I plan in the next year or so to emigrate to Canada anyway. What you can get there compared to the UK is staggering. Trouble is, as long as us mug Brits pay stupid prices for houses, the situation won't change. I personally don't want to put my life on hold for 5 years just so I can own the place I happen to live in at that moment. As I moved around as a kid so much, I've never really considered anyway a real home anyway. Working in IT, I would find a mortgage a terrifying prospect.
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