Place your bets on how low the FTSE is going to fall
24 July 2002, 03:26 PM
#37
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I'm going to go out on a limb here and say 2,346.
I really believe that the world is about to go through a massive recession due to a number of simultaneous events having occured, namely:-
a) September 11th
b) End of a technology era for Telecoms and Computer Markets (waiting for the next big thing)
c) Failure of the Golden Goose Dotcoms.
d) Many shares (especially tech stocks) have been overvalued for quite some time, with most analysts expecting the bubble to burst anytime.
e) Lack of confidence in general due to the Enron and Worldcom fiascos
f) Weak political leaders (aka. Bush, who is a glove puppet with an IQ of 96 (really!) and Blair who is so busy spinning he hasn't realised the country is on the edge of a financial fall)
For any of you familiar with the Great American Depression, there are many signs that indicate a similar situation on a global basis.
I hope I am wrong, but as of now FTSE is 3647 and falling.
[Edited by Sheepsplitter - 7/24/2002 3:29:20 PM]
I really believe that the world is about to go through a massive recession due to a number of simultaneous events having occured, namely:-
a) September 11th
b) End of a technology era for Telecoms and Computer Markets (waiting for the next big thing)
c) Failure of the Golden Goose Dotcoms.
d) Many shares (especially tech stocks) have been overvalued for quite some time, with most analysts expecting the bubble to burst anytime.
e) Lack of confidence in general due to the Enron and Worldcom fiascos
f) Weak political leaders (aka. Bush, who is a glove puppet with an IQ of 96 (really!) and Blair who is so busy spinning he hasn't realised the country is on the edge of a financial fall)
For any of you familiar with the Great American Depression, there are many signs that indicate a similar situation on a global basis.
I hope I am wrong, but as of now FTSE is 3647 and falling.
[Edited by Sheepsplitter - 7/24/2002 3:29:20 PM]
24 July 2002, 03:53 PM
#38
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If you had told someone in 1988 that the Nikkei Index would fall from its level of 38,000 to 11,000 and would still be around the 11,000 mark 14 years later, they would have laughed in your face - wonder if they are the ones laughing now?
As for where the FTSE is heading? Well Tony Dye (well known Fund Manager who got the boot from Phillips & Drew just before the dotcom bubble burst for his increasingly bearish predictions) forecasted 2500 - with plenty of pain on the way.
But as mentioned previously - the simple fact is that no-one knows what the stock market is going to do next. Whilst chartists like to claim there are rules and predictable behaviours to stock markets, ultimately they are controlled by humans, therefore irrational behaviour is the only rule.
As for where the FTSE is heading? Well Tony Dye (well known Fund Manager who got the boot from Phillips & Drew just before the dotcom bubble burst for his increasingly bearish predictions) forecasted 2500 - with plenty of pain on the way.
But as mentioned previously - the simple fact is that no-one knows what the stock market is going to do next. Whilst chartists like to claim there are rules and predictable behaviours to stock markets, ultimately they are controlled by humans, therefore irrational behaviour is the only rule.
24 July 2002, 03:57 PM
#39
Not sure what the average is, but over the last few weeks seeing it down something like 100 - 200 points a day seems normal.
My question is what will stop it going and going and going. It has to stop at some point, er doesnt it??
the only booming market at the moment is the housing market, and I dont care what all you home owners say about how great it is, I reckon that the housing market is next. tHeres no way it can just keep dancing along with the way things in the economy else where are going. prove me wrong, maybe, but what goes up must come down as demonstrated by the FTSE (also strangely enuf a market like any other)
My question is what will stop it going and going and going. It has to stop at some point, er doesnt it??
the only booming market at the moment is the housing market, and I dont care what all you home owners say about how great it is, I reckon that the housing market is next. tHeres no way it can just keep dancing along with the way things in the economy else where are going. prove me wrong, maybe, but what goes up must come down as demonstrated by the FTSE (also strangely enuf a market like any other)
24 July 2002, 04:15 PM
#40
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ADP,
I was just about to post a very similar post to yours, surely the housing market is next?
I remember back to when the Dot Com boom was happening and it seemed that a lot of people were making a lot of money for doing very little. Very easy to get sucked into it when you are seeing the prices go up daily and the greed part of your brain takes over. People were lining up to buy shares each time the next dot com floataion was announced. I remember being totally gutted when a friend told me he had made £8000 that morning. Eventually I was sick about hearing of all these people making money that even I tried to get in on the act. I decided to buy a £1000 worth of Lastminute.com shares so sent off for all the forms and we all had a big discussion about whether we needed to use a pin or a paperclip to attach the cheque to the form! . People were making multiple applications and we were all telling each other how much money we were going to make. I remember how disapointer everybody was when they realised they would only get £133 worth. A few people on the messageboards said this was a blessing in disguise but none of us listened to them.
2 years on and it seems the same thing has happened with house prices. All you hear on the news is how house prices have gone up 20% this year and everybody is telling each other how much money they have "made" on their house since they bought it.
A friend of mine is currently trying to buy 2 more houses to rent out, certain that he is going to make a lot of money. And why wouldn't he? You only have to look at the way house prices have gone up over the last 4 years and it's never going to end is it??
Trouble is he doesn't have the deposit for the buy to let mortgages so he is borrowing 70K against the mortgage on his current property to pay the deposit on the other two. But it doesn't matter because at the rate houseprices are going up he can't lose.
Or can he....
I was just about to post a very similar post to yours, surely the housing market is next?
I remember back to when the Dot Com boom was happening and it seemed that a lot of people were making a lot of money for doing very little. Very easy to get sucked into it when you are seeing the prices go up daily and the greed part of your brain takes over. People were lining up to buy shares each time the next dot com floataion was announced. I remember being totally gutted when a friend told me he had made £8000 that morning. Eventually I was sick about hearing of all these people making money that even I tried to get in on the act. I decided to buy a £1000 worth of Lastminute.com shares so sent off for all the forms and we all had a big discussion about whether we needed to use a pin or a paperclip to attach the cheque to the form! . People were making multiple applications and we were all telling each other how much money we were going to make. I remember how disapointer everybody was when they realised they would only get £133 worth. A few people on the messageboards said this was a blessing in disguise but none of us listened to them.
2 years on and it seems the same thing has happened with house prices. All you hear on the news is how house prices have gone up 20% this year and everybody is telling each other how much money they have "made" on their house since they bought it.
A friend of mine is currently trying to buy 2 more houses to rent out, certain that he is going to make a lot of money. And why wouldn't he? You only have to look at the way house prices have gone up over the last 4 years and it's never going to end is it??
Trouble is he doesn't have the deposit for the buy to let mortgages so he is borrowing 70K against the mortgage on his current property to pay the deposit on the other two. But it doesn't matter because at the rate houseprices are going up he can't lose.
Or can he....
24 July 2002, 04:28 PM
#42
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The housing market thing's been discussed a fair few times on here and I can't help but agree with the conclusions that've been drawn. The market is almost certainly going to slow down, and may even dip by a couple of percent, but there isn't likely to be a major crash (i.e., house prices dropping by 35%) anywhere soon. There's just too high a shortage of housing, the economy's not in as bad a shape as when the last housing crash hit...
24 July 2002, 04:31 PM
#43
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You only need to look back at the last housing crash to see what could happen. The papers have been full of the unsustainability of the housing price increases, and personal borrowing and indebtedness are also on the way up.
Low interest rates, mortgage payments, rising house prices and relatively low unemployment have lulled people into a false sense of security.
Low interest rates, mortgage payments, rising house prices and relatively low unemployment have lulled people into a false sense of security.
24 July 2002, 04:47 PM
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But if people feel their finances being squeezed by having to service an increased debt burden, save a greater proportion of thier income or that their job is under threat then they are less likely to want to move house?
24 July 2002, 04:52 PM
#46
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That scenario will only happen if interest rates severely increase. Self-inflicted debt - credit cards, etc - rarely forces people to sell up (except for extreme circumstances).
It's looking increasingly like interest rates may well drop again (if the market continues to fall) so it's not a major risk, really. And TBH, anyone who's in a variable rate situation and hasn't either locked themselves in or at the very least considered locking into a low rate, they deserve whatever they get.
[Edited by MarkO - 7/24/2002 4:53:10 PM]
It's looking increasingly like interest rates may well drop again (if the market continues to fall) so it's not a major risk, really. And TBH, anyone who's in a variable rate situation and hasn't either locked themselves in or at the very least considered locking into a low rate, they deserve whatever they get.
[Edited by MarkO - 7/24/2002 4:53:10 PM]
24 July 2002, 05:32 PM
#49
think the 10 % is out of the question.
mind you, these are very strange times at the moment arent they:
world markets on the floor
world peace, well in a mess (sept 11th, Iraq, etc etc)
uk housing market mega high
major companies going pop like never seen before
other stuff I forget
Who knows what the future holds, its certainly going to be a bit of rollercoaster ride I reckon
andy
mind you, these are very strange times at the moment arent they:
world markets on the floor
world peace, well in a mess (sept 11th, Iraq, etc etc)
uk housing market mega high
major companies going pop like never seen before
other stuff I forget
Who knows what the future holds, its certainly going to be a bit of rollercoaster ride I reckon
andy
07 November 2002, 09:55 PM
#50
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I reckon 3300, but I hope it doesn't go that low. Imagine what it will do o the economy. We'l all be skint and looking for work. Just done tha for 3 months and can't be arsed / afford to do it again.
Steve
[Edited by stephen30 - 7/11/2002 9:56:26 PM]
Steve
[Edited by stephen30 - 7/11/2002 9:56:26 PM]
07 December 2002, 11:13 AM
#51
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Traders are the ones who do indeed have the 'inside track' (good publication in the Slater theory of PE growth factoring!) and can manipulate stock to change prices even when no trade has occurred....
I didnt mention anything about going short. All I said was that you can make a good deal of money even when the market is falling..
by taking bets on the fact that the market (say ftse 100) or a particular share will fall - there are a number of companies out there who do this... IG index was just an example... (sporting and other index's - not just shares) - oh to be a gilt trader at the moment....
(cant really go short as a private individual... this is usually the brokers. i.e they have 20m m&s shares on their books and a client comes aloong and wants 21m - they sell the client 21m under contract. They are short in the share and have to buy 1m in the market - there are specific time frames and market requirements on when this has to be completed) so if your short you are in negative territory as I understand it - long means yuou have some - not so good when shares are taking a tumble - so all the brokers want to be short - yeah... they wish..
Someone correct me is this is incorrect?
[Edited by steve McCulloch - 7/12/2002 11:14:00 AM]
I didnt mention anything about going short. All I said was that you can make a good deal of money even when the market is falling..
by taking bets on the fact that the market (say ftse 100) or a particular share will fall - there are a number of companies out there who do this... IG index was just an example... (sporting and other index's - not just shares) - oh to be a gilt trader at the moment....
(cant really go short as a private individual... this is usually the brokers. i.e they have 20m m&s shares on their books and a client comes aloong and wants 21m - they sell the client 21m under contract. They are short in the share and have to buy 1m in the market - there are specific time frames and market requirements on when this has to be completed) so if your short you are in negative territory as I understand it - long means yuou have some - not so good when shares are taking a tumble - so all the brokers want to be short - yeah... they wish..
Someone correct me is this is incorrect?
[Edited by steve McCulloch - 7/12/2002 11:14:00 AM]
27 January 2003, 07:45 PM
#53
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Thought I'd revive this thread as it's a little topical.
Currently at 3480.8 and falling.
We are now at a seven year low, which is almost exactly half the value of the FTSE at it's peak in Dec 1999.
Currently at 3480.8 and falling.
We are now at a seven year low, which is almost exactly half the value of the FTSE at it's peak in Dec 1999.
27 January 2003, 08:00 PM
#54
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Thought I'd revive this thread as it's a little topical.
Currently at 3480.8 and falling.
We are now at a seven year low, which is almost exactly half the value of the FTSE at it's peak in Dec 1999.
Currently at 3480.8 and falling.
We are now at a seven year low, which is almost exactly half the value of the FTSE at it's peak in Dec 1999.
28 January 2003, 10:08 AM
#56
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Hehehe, funnily enough i was thinking about this thread only yesterday, whilst watching a very red FTSE screen.
I was one of the people who said 4,000 would be easily supported. And here we are at 3,500. Hmmm.
What's even scarier is that the Japanese banking system was supposed to be bankrupt when the Nikkei was at 14,000. And here we are at 8,500. Even bigger hmmm.
We need to get this war done or cancelled.
I was one of the people who said 4,000 would be easily supported. And here we are at 3,500. Hmmm.
What's even scarier is that the Japanese banking system was supposed to be bankrupt when the Nikkei was at 14,000. And here we are at 8,500. Even bigger hmmm.
We need to get this war done or cancelled.
28 January 2003, 10:38 AM
#59
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Trouble is , i dont think mkts are like this just because of war, they certainly shouldn't be.
Early jan rally - we still knew war was coming..
I think its more a byproduct of the fact a decade of aggressive consumer consumption is coming to a rather abrupt end. (admittedly war is not helping this).
Having said that, I do think we get a big rally if and when we actually go to war - whether that holds - who knows
Early jan rally - we still knew war was coming..
I think its more a byproduct of the fact a decade of aggressive consumer consumption is coming to a rather abrupt end. (admittedly war is not helping this).
Having said that, I do think we get a big rally if and when we actually go to war - whether that holds - who knows