So Brexit seems to be a good thing then.
17 July 2018, 12:23 PM
#3061
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How was claiming that revoking article 50 would lead to a (potentially fictitious) loss of all that you hold dear even vaguely positive?
17 July 2018, 12:33 PM
#3063
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EU to sign its biggest free trade deal with Japan
So, the EU is doing all these trade deals, that the UK won't see the benefit of once we leave, only to try and do our own trade deals with the same country and getting a worse deal because we're a much smaller player than the EU is.
So, the EU is doing all these trade deals, that the UK won't see the benefit of once we leave, only to try and do our own trade deals with the same country and getting a worse deal because we're a much smaller player than the EU is.
And this from the Independant is brilliant, "The EU said the trade liberalisation will lead to the region's export growth in chemicals, clothing, cosmetics and beer to Japan, leading to job security for Europe. Japanese will get cheaper cheese, such as Parmesan, gouda and cheddar, as well as chocolate and biscuits."
It hardly sells the benefits of such a deal, unless you're in to cheese or beer
Last edited by ^Qwerty^; 17 July 2018 at 12:39 PM.
17 July 2018, 12:51 PM
#3065
Scooby Regular
So why can't the UK have a free trade deal with the EU, or what has Japan/EU given up to get one?
And this from the Independant is brilliant, "The EU said the trade liberalisation will lead to the region's export growth in chemicals, clothing, cosmetics and beer to Japan, leading to job security for Europe. Japanese will get cheaper cheese, such as Parmesan, gouda and cheddar, as well as chocolate and biscuits."
It hardly sells the benefits of such a deal, unless you're in to cheese or beer
And this from the Independant is brilliant, "The EU said the trade liberalisation will lead to the region's export growth in chemicals, clothing, cosmetics and beer to Japan, leading to job security for Europe. Japanese will get cheaper cheese, such as Parmesan, gouda and cheddar, as well as chocolate and biscuits."
It hardly sells the benefits of such a deal, unless you're in to cheese or beer
there is only one reason why we couldn't get a free trade deal with the EU and thats the EU being bloody minded, which is why people wanted out of the EU in the first place.
17 July 2018, 12:58 PM
#3067
So why can't the UK have a free trade deal with the EU, or what has Japan/EU given up to get one?
And this from the Independant is brilliant, "The EU said the trade liberalisation will lead to the region's export growth in chemicals, clothing, cosmetics and beer to Japan, leading to job security for Europe. Japanese will get cheaper cheese, such as Parmesan, gouda and cheddar, as well as chocolate and biscuits."
It hardly sells the benefits of such a deal, unless you're in to cheese or beer
And this from the Independant is brilliant, "The EU said the trade liberalisation will lead to the region's export growth in chemicals, clothing, cosmetics and beer to Japan, leading to job security for Europe. Japanese will get cheaper cheese, such as Parmesan, gouda and cheddar, as well as chocolate and biscuits."
It hardly sells the benefits of such a deal, unless you're in to cheese or beer
17 July 2018, 01:01 PM
#3068
You can get one....but it will take time. I am sure the EU/Japan one has been talked in review for years. Trade deals don't just materialise overnight. Just out of curiosity, what is it you all think that the UK has that the EU would want (in terms related to a free trade deal)?
17 July 2018, 01:24 PM
#3069
Scooby Senior
So why can't the UK have a free trade deal with the EU, or what has Japan/EU given up to get one?
And this from the Independant is brilliant, "The EU said the trade liberalisation will lead to the region's export growth in chemicals, clothing, cosmetics and beer to Japan, leading to job security for Europe. Japanese will get cheaper cheese, such as Parmesan, gouda and cheddar, as well as chocolate and biscuits."
It hardly sells the benefits of such a deal, unless you're in to cheese or beer
And this from the Independant is brilliant, "The EU said the trade liberalisation will lead to the region's export growth in chemicals, clothing, cosmetics and beer to Japan, leading to job security for Europe. Japanese will get cheaper cheese, such as Parmesan, gouda and cheddar, as well as chocolate and biscuits."
It hardly sells the benefits of such a deal, unless you're in to cheese or beer
It will take decades of negotiations to reach a point where the UK has the same number of trade deals as the EU does, but because the UK is a smaller market than the EU, the UK will be weaker when negotiating any deals, so we will never get the same conditions.
A trade deal is always a compromise about giving up the protection of your domestic market to gain access to your trading partners market. The smaller the partner's market is, the less you would be willing to give up. The bigger economy always gets the best deal because they are the ones with the least to gain.
Take a look at the Swiss deal with China. China gets full access to the Swiss market immediately, while Switzerland gets limited access to the Chinese market in 10 years time. That doesn't mean its a bad deal for Switzerland, but it is a better deal for China.
The idea that we'll do lots of quick trade deals that will be better than our current customs union is just flying unicorns! A quick deal with the EU will be possible because we already have alignment, but with any other country, it will take many years and in many areas may not be possible due to incompatibilities with the EU deal.
Take Chlorine washed chicken which is banned from the food chain in the EU. If we have to accept chlorine washed chicken as part of a US trade deal, then any products from the UK which may contain chicken could no longer be sold in the EU. Similar problems would also arise from the use of certain fertilisers or GM crops which are also likely to be part of a US trade deal.
17 July 2018, 01:32 PM
#3070
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The UK could do a trade deal with the EU, but that would only be with the EU and wouldn't give the UK access to the trade deals that the EU has with other countries.
It will take decades of negotiations to reach a point where the UK has the same number of trade deals as the EU does, but because the UK is a smaller market than the EU, the UK will be weaker when negotiating any deals, so we will never get the same conditions.
A trade deal is always a compromise about giving up the protection of your domestic market to gain access to your trading partners market. The smaller the partner's market is, the less you would be willing to give up. The bigger economy always gets the best deal because they are the ones with the least to gain.
Take a look at the Swiss deal with China. China gets full access to the Swiss market immediately, while Switzerland gets limited access to the Chinese market in 10 years time. That doesn't mean its a bad deal for Switzerland, but it is a better deal for China.
The idea that we'll do lots of quick trade deals that will be better than our current customs union is just flying unicorns! A quick deal with the EU will be possible because we already have alignment, but with any other country, it will take many years and in many areas may not be possible due to incompatibilities with the EU deal.
Take Chlorine washed chicken which is banned from the food chain in the EU. If we have to accept chlorine washed chicken as part of a US trade deal, then any products from the UK which may contain chicken could no longer be sold in the EU. Similar problems would also arise from the use of certain fertilisers or GM crops which are also likely to be part of a US trade deal.
It will take decades of negotiations to reach a point where the UK has the same number of trade deals as the EU does, but because the UK is a smaller market than the EU, the UK will be weaker when negotiating any deals, so we will never get the same conditions.
A trade deal is always a compromise about giving up the protection of your domestic market to gain access to your trading partners market. The smaller the partner's market is, the less you would be willing to give up. The bigger economy always gets the best deal because they are the ones with the least to gain.
Take a look at the Swiss deal with China. China gets full access to the Swiss market immediately, while Switzerland gets limited access to the Chinese market in 10 years time. That doesn't mean its a bad deal for Switzerland, but it is a better deal for China.
The idea that we'll do lots of quick trade deals that will be better than our current customs union is just flying unicorns! A quick deal with the EU will be possible because we already have alignment, but with any other country, it will take many years and in many areas may not be possible due to incompatibilities with the EU deal.
Take Chlorine washed chicken which is banned from the food chain in the EU. If we have to accept chlorine washed chicken as part of a US trade deal, then any products from the UK which may contain chicken could no longer be sold in the EU. Similar problems would also arise from the use of certain fertilisers or GM crops which are also likely to be part of a US trade deal.
With the irony being that instead of having to adhere to Brussels regulations, we'd be bound by Washington instead. I'm sure Reese Mogg knows this too.
17 July 2018, 01:32 PM
#3071
Scooby Regular
You can get one....but it will take time. I am sure the EU/Japan one has been talked in review for years. Trade deals don't just materialise overnight. Just out of curiosity, what is it you all think that the UK has that the EU would want (in terms related to a free trade deal)?
17 July 2018, 01:35 PM
#3072
No, it will end for best part of a decade (at least). In real minutes and hours that may not seem long, but in terms of damage to the economy it is devastating. But anyone who doesn't have the brains of a Trump/Brexit supporter would be able to comprehend this.
17 July 2018, 01:39 PM
#3073
Scooby Regular
why could it not be in months?
it purely depends on your perspective
the interesting thing is it now looks like most folks have accepted a no deal
17 July 2018, 01:48 PM
#3074
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17 July 2018, 01:52 PM
#3075
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17 July 2018, 01:52 PM
#3076
hahahahahahahahahahahahaha that is hilarious.....multi-multi-billion deal wrapped up in months??? Put down the crackpipe mate. Google how long it takes to do a deal involving multi territories. The US estimated a deal with them and the UK (so just two countries) would take up to 10 years to implement. Also, you have not given any input on what the UK has that the EU wants?
17 July 2018, 01:54 PM
#3077
Scooby Regular
hahahahahahahahahahahahaha that is hilarious.....multi-multi-billion deal wrapped up in months??? Put down the crackpipe mate. Google how long it takes to do a deal involving multi territories. The US estimated a deal with them and the UK (so just two countries) would take up to 10 years to implement. Also, you have not given any input on what the UK has that the EU wants?
17 July 2018, 02:04 PM
#3078
It will change that's for sure. Until we have agreed new deals, it's WTO all the way. Sounds easy enough, except we currently operate under EU schedules, so we would have to make new ones, and that isn't as easy as it sounds.
So the reality of no deal is actually trading with everyone under the current deals until we negotiate our own with the WTO. What is the point?
Once we get to that point, however long that may be, any new trade deals will be done effectively from scratch, with both parties wanting the best out of it. I'm sure the UK can bully Swaziland into whatever it wants, but China? The EU? US?
Get the popcorn out!
17 July 2018, 02:14 PM
#3079
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Its that do or die wartime mentality that in fact we dont really need to deal with anyone ! , unless its suits us . Could just live off the land dammit .
17 July 2018, 02:33 PM
#3081
Scooby Regular
17 July 2018, 03:03 PM
#3083
we trade with them as part of the EU, not because we have lots of things the EU need e.g. Scottish salmon.....when out of the EU we can't trade with them freely....so please do enlighten me on what we have that would make the Eu want a free trade agreement with them.....
17 July 2018, 03:09 PM
#3084
Scooby Senior
The more important factor from the EU perspective is lost exports to the UK. As the Brexiteers point out, BMW want to sell us cars and Italy wants to sell us Prosecco. That's why the EU wants to do a deal, to sell stuff to the UK, not to import stuff from the UK. The only problem for the UK is, with the lack of any other trade deals and WTO base rates and the UK with its 80% service economy, the UK will still need to import everything and Brits will still prefer to import German cars and French or Italian sparkling wine, its just going to cost Brits more. So the EU has far less to lose in a no deal scenario than the UK does!
As for a no deal being an almost certainty, thats just wishful thinking on the Brexiteers part. Its looking extremely unlikely that the government will survive into the Autumn and with Conservative leadership elections or a general election, or even if the May survives, she's so weak, there is virtually no chance that a deal will be done in time. Article 50 set out a 2 year negotiation but always allowed for an extension to the negotiation period. Given its in everyone's interest to come to some sort of deal, it's becoming quite inevitable that the UK will request an extension and the EU will approve it.
17 July 2018, 03:11 PM
#3085
Scooby Regular
we trade with them as part of the EU, not because we have lots of things the EU need e.g. Scottish salmon.....when out of the EU we can't trade with them freely....so please do enlighten me on what we have that would make the Eu want a free trade agreement with them.....
17 July 2018, 03:15 PM
#3086
I know BMWhere……..but the point is this....the Brexiteers think that a trade deal will mean billions of pounds of exports coming from the UK to the EU.....but in reality it will not....will just mean it is easier for the EU to export to the UK....the UK would not gain an economy boosting advantage as the money will flow to the EU and out of the British economy. But lets face it, high end cars are like cigarettes in the sense that demand is static regardless of price. If you can afford 60k on a merc or BMW then the likelihood is that you will be ok to pay 65k post Brexit.
17 July 2018, 03:19 PM
#3087
Are you stupid? No, my point is this.....the UK have nothing to offer the EU. So it is not the imports into the EU that makes a deal worth having to the EU as the UK has **** all that the EU wants. The British people want what the EU have in terms of cars etc....so luxury items....the cars will still flow from Germany into the UK....the only factor is how much money will need to be coughed up by a British citizen to get one
17 July 2018, 04:41 PM
#3088
Scooby Senior
This is an interesting article about how maintaining the trading relationships we already have is initially more important than forging new trade deals.
We currently have 40 trade deals via the EU which have collectively taken 75 years to negotiation. When we leave the EU, at most we will have a single deal with the EU, leaving us 39 trade deals worse off on day 1. Sure some of those deals are with tiny countries which we could skip and some will be relatively easy to maintain the same or similar deal, but the bigger the EU deal, the harder it will be to keep the same deal with just the UK.
Currently the UK government doesn't even have a trade department and there are not many people in the UK with real experience of negotiating trade deals. Its not feasible to negotiate many deals in parallel, particularly as the result of one deal will influence the content of another deal.
What is the UK capacity to negotiate future trade deals going to be?
How many deals can the future trade department realistically hope to handle in parallel?
How many years will it take to reach a point when we have an equivalent value in trade deals that we currently have?
What are the UK's red lines when it comes to doing any trade deals?
We currently have 40 trade deals via the EU which have collectively taken 75 years to negotiation. When we leave the EU, at most we will have a single deal with the EU, leaving us 39 trade deals worse off on day 1. Sure some of those deals are with tiny countries which we could skip and some will be relatively easy to maintain the same or similar deal, but the bigger the EU deal, the harder it will be to keep the same deal with just the UK.
Currently the UK government doesn't even have a trade department and there are not many people in the UK with real experience of negotiating trade deals. Its not feasible to negotiate many deals in parallel, particularly as the result of one deal will influence the content of another deal.
What is the UK capacity to negotiate future trade deals going to be?
How many deals can the future trade department realistically hope to handle in parallel?
How many years will it take to reach a point when we have an equivalent value in trade deals that we currently have?
What are the UK's red lines when it comes to doing any trade deals?
17 July 2018, 05:40 PM
#3089
Its looking extremely unlikely that the government will survive into the Autumn and with Conservative leadership elections or a general election, or even if the May survives, she's so weak, there is virtually no chance that a deal will be done in time. Article 50 set out a 2 year negotiation but always allowed for an extension to the negotiation period. Given its in everyone's interest to come to some sort of deal, it's becoming quite inevitable that the UK will request an extension and the EU will approve it.
A 3rd general election in three years, but didn’t the public speak when they voted the conservatives in so how can we have more elections. It’s as though they aren’t happy with the result
I don’t think any PM wants to be known in history books for ruining the country and since no one has any idea what brexit is how can they sort a deal on what 51% of the voters wanted.