Anyone tempted?

 

Was thinking this myself just this morning.

 

My brother works for them and he just cashed in some the other week for £6 odds and is due to start another share scheme so he is happy .

On the other hand my old man retired from BP ten years ago but still has a lot of shares as a nest egg and he is not so happy.

 

I'd wait another week.

Or you should have started shorting a while back

 

wait a while! but keep watching all the same

 

possibly another month !

 

Thanks chaps.

Was thinking it can only really go one way once this starts to get cleared up.

 

Sold mine a few weeks ago.

 

Impossible to know when they'll stop falling ...

TX.

 

My old man mentioned tonight that the vultures may be circling with views to a take over if the price got low enough, not sure how likely this is though.

 

They have a lot of very valuable assets...


...and one heck of an uncapped (excuse the pun) liability!! It might lead to a split with a good co/bad co being created.


Depends how long it takes to cap the well.


Politically whatever Obama thinks in private - his public persona will be one that has to take BP for everything he can.

 

Yours when the first news broke...

Wouldn't get involved now as it's priced in...but eyes and ears on this for a cheeky bid...

 

So? Buy at 399p ???

 

I was tempted a few days back, but now I'm not so sure.

Always a gamble in this sort of situation. I got my fingers burnt when I bought Northern Rock low, but then saw almost a 500% gain on RBS so it's win some lose some...

 

Why is it not the fault of the US firm which did all the installing of the well etc. on BP's behalf?

Les

 

Leslie - you got any drilling/offshore experience?

If you want me to, I'll be able to explain why the contractors (Transocean and Halliburton) weren't to blame.

WUZ (Toolpusher on a DP rig, same as the DWH)

 

Please do, I can't see how Transocean have no proportion of blame in this situation.

 

No all my work was done above ground and I spent a lot of energy and thought in avoiding doing any "drilling" whatsoever!

I would be very grateful for an explanation as you promised above.

Les

 

Could you be tempted back in lower, John, or are you too concerned about the level of risk involved?

 

I know this wasn't aimed at me but that's not a bad call...I think anyone trying to short now is at greater risk, but it might me more prudent to keep eyes peeled and ear to the ground.

If anything there could be a takeover, the vultures are circling....so i'd think very carefully about going short (unless there's a global boycott over BP instigated by the tree-huggers....but let's be honest, we need oil and if anything, BP could reduce their pump prices to keep them afloat). The amount risk involved going short at the lows is like holding a posi over the non-farms in my eyes.

Of course, this is only my view...

 

I'm concerned about the risk. It is OK chasing dividends, but they may be under threat in future and the drop in share price has already wiped out many dividend payments.

 

Yes, a lot of the discount in price is due to wild speculation about the future earning potential of the company. Some people even questioning whether it can survive, which I think is ridiculous. Even the higher end of cost estimates could easily be paid easily out of profit. I think it's quite likely that any costs to be paid will be spread over many years too, which again takes any real pressure off.

A lack of divi short-term isn't such an issue when there is the potential to make 50% capital gains... which I believe there may be, in 5 years at the most. Probably a lot sooner if past market action is anything to go by. About 1% of the media bull that's being banded about will probably become a reality.

 

I wonder what happened to WUZ then. He was going to explain why the drilling firm was not to blame and it is all BP's fault!

Les

 

Fair point. My thinking was just that at these levels the current dividend yield is very high. Even if it is cancelled for a year or two and then reinstated at half, it would still be a fairly decent yield on an investment made at around £4. Not to mention that(as I just said in reply to Captain Carbon) I think profitability would really have to be hit in the long-term not to see at least £6 a share at some point in varying market conditions in the future.

 

I dont think he frequents NSR very often, so has more than likely forgotten about the thread.

 

Ok thanks-disappointing to miss his explanation.

Les

 

Currently sat at 390p.....

 

Anyone buy them recently ... they've died a death today!

TX.

 

not BP but looking at Aminex http://www.londonstockexchange.com/e...73255IEGBXSSQ3 at the moment

 

how do you go about buying / selling shares