lordretsudo

BBC NEWS | Business | House prices 'up by 25% by 2013'

EddScott

But the world is due to end in 2012 so frankly they can say what they like about 2013 can't they?

How pointless.

PeteBrant

Only dropping another 4% this year, and just 2% next year. That's the bit I would say is grossly over optimistic.

Chris L

And it's currently 2008.... And if prices have fallen considerably in the time between (which looks likely for at least some of the next 5 years or so), I'd say it was entirely possible. Question is from what level will they be recovering from?

Gear Head

iTrader: (2)

I hate these 'predictions'. No one actually knows what is going to happen as there has never been a situation like this one. If you look at any economic model, all have different factors.

All this does is add fuel to the fire.

Dieseldog

Well an Estate Agent this morning told me there's never been a better time to buy, so that pretty much validates the BBC story imo...

Gear Head

iTrader: (2)

Ofcourse he is going to say that! Are you really that gullible?

TelBoy

LOL, go on DD, keep a straight face while you answer, i dare you

john banks

Has this group been accurate predicting house prices so far? Erm, no.

Where's the shortage? It was only created by easy credit. Plenty of houses now.

SunnySideUp

Up 25% within 5 Years after a drop of 35% in 2009?

Quite possible .... but hardly a great celebration item.

Dieseldog

Thank you, Telboy

Klaatu

Unfortunately for the sane amoung us, many, far too many people, are!

lozgti

I haven't smiled at a scoobynet house thread for a while .

Keep it up chaps.

PeteBrant

BBC NEWS | Business | Plan to revive mortgage lending

Brilliant. The banks make hay while the sun shines and then want the taxpayer to bail them out when it all goes wrong. Of course the Government will oblige because they would sell thier own grandmothers if they thought it would get the housing market on the go so people go back to thinking they are rich because thier house is worth a lot of money.

It is the lenders that caused this problem. They can say "oh it wasn't us! We didn't know the sub prime market in America was going to go".. Maybe so, but I seem to remember those same poor lenders lending 120% with no deposit, to people with no declared income, at a rate that actually lost the lender money.

And now the chickens have come home to roost due to such behaviour being unsustainable, and the Government and lenders want the Taxpayer to Guarantee mortgages.

**** that. Unless of course the lenders are going to pay for such a service? Say, 50% of thier profits going to the treasury?

what would scooby do

It is if you are a position to buy at a low price point from the desparate mugs who overstretched themselves

timmy2take

iTrader: (7)

Have to agree, if you can secure a decent rate mortgage that your happy paying back each month, you'll get somewhere a lot cheaper than this time last year. It's a buyers market & from what i've seen in my area prices are down approx 5%, but at a guess people are scared at the moment and I think you'll easily get 10% off an asking price, may not be the 1st property you try it with, but i'm sure you'd find one quite easily where you can save a lot of money.

So basically if you can afford to, its a good time to buy in my opinion.

PeteBrant

Are you an estate agent?

GC8WRX

Exactly!

I have a mate who bought a flat for 117.5k two years ago on a two year fixed rate deal. That deal has just expired and the new one is 180 a month more, plus the flat below is up for 109k, so he cant sell up cos of the chance of negative equity!

He wants to sell to get a house with his missus, but cant so is trapped!

Another mate wants to sell one flat he owns to release some funds, bought for 160k two years ago (same new build development as mate above, but has 2 bedrooms and 2 en suites), is up for 150k, offers are around the 140k mark!

From what i see happening around my way, the housing market is fubar'd, which is good cos houses prices got way out of hand! (in 2000 ahouse in an ok part of town was 70-80k, so why in 2006 was it 200k?)

Dan W

Look at other factors related to the housing market to see how dire the situation is.

Thoasands of Removal companies going to the wall, estate agents doing like wise.

Building suppliers struggling to attract custom. New builds lying empty, half built new builds not completed.

Land bought for building remaining untouched.

My cousin has been in the removal business for over a decade, running more than one company in Eastbourne but currently running a business in Cheltanham. He said sunday that he had never seen the industry in such a dire state of affairs.

I used to be a financial advisor several years ago. I could see this situation coming form a mile off but everyone I spoke to thought I was nuts.

Anyone with half a brain could've seen this coming.

TelBoy

True, but the relentless march of prices went on for much, much longer than many people expected, myself included. This correction is about three years later than i predicted, in which time people have made fortunes if they've bought and sold in that period. Like everything though, what goes around comes around.

Dan W

I have to agree with you there. I expected a drop sooner. Its about 18months to 2 years later than I predicted.

Perhaps thats why people thought I was nuts. I kept on long enough and people stopped listening to me.

But part of the reason prices were driven up so quickly was first time buyers panic buying. That created a sellers market which forced prices up further creating more panic.

Suddenly prices are too high and no one can afford to buy. The the inevitable happens, sudden drops in value.

Admittedly this partly oversimplifies the situation but its a factor.

PeteBrant

No one, and I mean no one saw the credit crunch coming. Simple reason being that no one knew what level of exposure to the sub prime market the lenders had, because none of the lender knew. Which has what has compunded the issue. Without it, we would probably still be in a period of rising prices.

Lots of people expected the fall to come at some - simply because the rise was unsustainable. However, as long as the banks were willing to lend people money, the prices would have kept going up.

GC8WRX

Just found out the ban on building new homes in my area is lifted in the first quarter of next year, it has been in place for 4 years now, but 330 new homes are already at the site development stage.

I think some of the panic pricing that has happened in the past five years has been due to a percieved lack of houses, but in 18 months in my area there will be market saturation, cos loads of new houses will spring up all over the place, and hopefully prices will drop further!

ricardo

But are the developers actually going to build them ? I'd expect them to be finding all sorts of excuses to pull out...