LG John

Lets assume for a minute I only ever bet red. On that basis the only thing I can be beaten by on the table are the blacks and 'O's. My question is this: What are the odds of a black/O coming up 5 times in a row, 10 times in a row (i'm particularly interested in this one) and 15 times in a row? Also, from experience whats the largest 'run' any of you lot have seen?

jjones

each time the wheel is spun the odds are the same.

the probability; however, is a different kettle of fish.

how many blacks, reds and Os are there?

MarkO

Probably doesn't help much, but ISTR hearing somewhere that if you

a) buy a £1 ticket on the Lotto or

b) Put £1 on a single number on a roulette wheel, win, and each time you win you put all your winnings back onto the same number to win again

...that you're something like 7 times more likely to win a £1,000,000 on the roulette table than in the Lotto. Was a fairly good demonstration of just how hopeless the Lotto odds really are.

Doesn't seem to stop 8,000,000 (or however many) people being stupid enough to play it though.

Butkus

The odds are against you just slightly even when looking at just playing red continuously or even numbers continuously. I'm pretty sure I know what you're thinking, but it doesn't work. Are you thinking of doubling your bet each time until you win? For example, you decide to bet on black coming up. If it comes up you double your money and leave the table. If not, then the next go you double up. If it doesn't come up, you double again and so on until black comes up and you make back your money and a small win. The problem is, is that it can go on and on. Eventually your colour probably will come up, but you will hit the table limit before that. The casinos have it sorted, and they know this trick.

In Europe the tables are slightly more in your favour because they only have one zero instead of a double zero in the States. This doesn't really make much difference.

It's called The Martingale system by the way.

hades

I can do the maths, but am not so good with roulette. Is it 0-36 on a wheel, 18 red, 18 black and a green 0?

Assuming that is the case, chance of a black/0 is 19/37 = 0.514. As jjones said, that stays the same each spin.

Probability of 5 consecutive black/0 is 0.514 to the power 5, or ~0.036 (ie 3.6%). Probability of 10 consecutive is ~0.00128 or 0.13%.

Popeye P1

I tried that theory Saxoboy and betted on the red all the time. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. When I did lose it was heavy. One other thing don't bring you're Visa to Casino, its a death trap.

LG John

I'm aware of the 'double up' betting theory but I've modified it significantly to come up with a system that might work well but never make huge amounts of cash - a sort of weekend thing . I'm currently testing it extensively online (no cash) involved and trying to see the flaws. The problem is I've calculated that if I started with a grand I could only withstand 10-11 losses in a row before I'd be in trouble!! This system wouldn't be worthwile in a real casino as the spin rate is too low. Online you can spin about 2 times every 10s so you quickly get through the bets. I don't want to say too much and have everyone shoot me down and say it will never work, etc I'd rather find those holes myself And yes I realise that statistically the casino always wins but the casino also wins a lot because of people not playing well or not sticking to their own game plan

Can someone express 0.13% as a ration (i.e. 1 in 1000 chance/probability)

hades

As a ratio, 0.13% is 781 to 1.

SiCotty

The only problem is you will start to bet larger and larger amounts to keep it interesting.

Si

LG John

780-odd to one!! It just happened I lost over £1000 of pretend money. I still maintain this system would work but you'd need to play a table with a MASSIVE bet limit and you'd need to start with about 10 grand with your first bet being a £1 I guess its true what they say, you can't beat the casino

unclebuck

Mycroft will be along in a minute to sort this one out. LOL

UB

Mycroft

I love the gambling table... I play Poker and can make money (just), but not Roulette... but there is a method of making a bit of money on the wheel... but the referee/croupier will soon stop you... and NO, I won't tell you Saxo, but you are on the right track...

unclebuck

SJ_Skyline

I think this is the one Mycroft is getting at....

1) You need 50/50 odds - red/black works well
2) Bet your initial stake (£1) on red
3) If red comes up you win, go back to step 2
4) If black comes up, bet £2 on red
5) If red comes up you have made up your lossees, go back to step 2
6) if black comes up, double your stake again to £4 and so on....

Crapaud62

We run "fun" casinos for charity but by local law we can only use "monopoly " type money.

One night I had won on a single number at 36 to 1. Just for a laugh I asked the croupier to give me better odds for the last spin of the night so he agreed on 50 to 1. I put all my fake money on it and it came up!!! Number 27 it was. I had won millions but it was all pretend money

My old man walked into casino in Budapest when we were there for the Grand Prix. Everyone else was betting on Red/Black or Odds/Evens. Dad just boldly bet on single numbers, 5 bets of around £10 each and won around £300 and left after only 20 minutes in the place. My mother hates gambling so we blackmailed him to pay for all our nights drinking to not tell her.

Mycroft

I have a roulette whel programme on my PC here and just trying the method made me about £130 before I think you would get halted in a casino... but after the first couple of times you woulfd be quietly asked to not play the odds that way... even though 'numerically' you are 'at risk'... counting the 30 rolls before will make you a sure fire winner... but very quickly an unwelcome one.

carl

Remember the guys who hid a computer in one of their shoes? They reasoned that a croupier gets into a rhythm and the spin rate and ball release rate will be pretty similar each time.

IIRC the guy had to tap his toe on the floor every time the '0' came round (so the computer knew how fast the wheel was spinning) then thumped his heel on the floor when the ball was released. I guess the computer had some non-linear equations to try and solve (the motion of the ball is chaotic), but they came up trumps until they were discovered and kicked out

I'll find a link to the story eventually.

As an aside, card-counting will also get you ejected pretty quickly.

[Edited by carl - 5/22/2003 9:26:08 PM]

Mycroft

Anybody here play Poker?

LG John

Not if you play online my friend My method is a personal adaptation of the one skyline outlines. It increases the potential to earn more money quicker without increasing the risk at all. However, the risk is still there - a monster run of blacks/0s and you're screwed. If I had £2k I could afford to lose I'd do it online and I believe that in all probability I'd do well. I can't afford to take that risk though and unless I find a table that will let me place 10p bets I can't reduce the overall risks I made a theoretical £200 in less than an hour tonight but then I did get a monster of blacks later that wiped out my funds so clearly I needed more 'reserve' in the first place!!

LG John

I do like the odd hand mycroft

Ralf

The casino always wins. The owner of a casino only can escape getting filthy rich by committing suicide the saying goes. Some communities own casinos and they wouldn't have them if they could loose money.

All probability evens out in infinity. But few people have the money to go there. You stop when you run out of money. The casino wins. Even when you win you start again and run out of money sooner or later. Who can stop after a win? But a maths prof also said playing Roulette beats lotto hands down...

In France I saw a 'small' Roulette. IIRC it had only 12 numbers and a zero. At first it looked as if you could win more easily (see above). But then I realised the zero takes a lot out of the probability of a black/red and pair/impair win. In a normal Roulette you have a chance of 18(=half of the numbers) out of 37(=36+'zero') which is 48,6 %. this little game gives you 6 possible wins out of 13 possibilities = 46,2%. Does not sound much but you just lost 1K of virtual money as a single customer on one evening because you were confident to win.

What about a rich girl?

Ralf

I also remember an article in a reputable magazine about croupiers bing able to throw the ball exactly to the numbers they had chosen

LG John

Surely the online tables can't be manipulated though or the company (casino) would get well and truely shafted!!

stu200

iTrader: (1)

SB,

I used to work for Stanley Casinos a number of years ago ... you'll know of them in Edinburgh.

The chairman was a man named Leonard Steinberg. Every year he bought a brand new Bentley Continental and had his chauffeur polish the alloys with a small scrubbing brush every day.

He also collected Aston Martins.

The house always wins