Is this is going to lead to the start of WW3 I'm hoping I'll be too old to be conscripted...and I have a bad back anyway.

 

On the bright side though, at least your not invested in the DAX or EuroStoxx 50.....well perhaps you are....but FTSE is the "most robust" european market looking at its peers

 

Yeah , mostly FTSE stuff apart from a few wild cards but mostly in defensive stocks for the divi and to be honest although my portfolio has dipped a little it is nothing compared to the falls seen with both the FTSE and DJI so not too worried at the mo as I'm not in it for a quick buck.

Chip

 

I think we should have that promised referendum, hang on to our own money, and get out of the Eu straight away.

Leave them to stew in the mess of their own manufacture.

Les

 

Unfortunately Les I don't think that is going to happen any time soon.

 

we trade with them, so whatever the situation is with membership of the EU, referendums etc we will still have a creek / paddle, location issue

 

The trade to do i think is sell FTSE and buy DOW, looking at the charts there is reason to do this and also that trade creates long USD and short GBP which is probably the "right" thing to do.....

 

My IB friends reckon it will only rally after drifting to 4,500.

Mind you, one of them has just lost $2.3bn

 

4500 i think will be the bottom, then brief rally and print a smaller low before a massive rally back towards 5500 which would be the long term wave 2 if you follow and use elliot wave theory....

 

could use the mexican wave theory and really tank

 

Do you think the developed economies can solve this through fiscal measures? Even getting back to an even keel - budget wise - there is still going to be a debt overhang of very large proportions - up to 90% of GDP predicted for the UK.

Best care scenario looks to me like a 'lost decade' of weak/no growth as that sovereign debt is brought back to more 'normal levels', and household debt is reduced. Lots of pain because our economy needs restructuring away from being public sector led. I think this is very optimistic though, there is lots of political incentives to not cut hard enough....we are still projected 3 or 4 years from a balanced budget as it is I think?

Worse case scenario is well....let's not go there.

IMHO of course.

 

I don't think you're far off what will happen. You can't live on borrowed money forever, the numbers were getting out of hand.

In the UK specifically though, the pension shake-up could be far harder than people realise, especially if stock indices shank as widely predicted. There just won't be any money to pay them.

 

Yes of course, but I reckon that if we went solo as Norway did, they would still need to trade with us,and we would not be handing over all that cash to them for nothing!

Les

 

Of course. If people are giving more importance to their own sovereignty than their short-term economic "security", why not overrule them because you know what's 'best'? Throw money into the abyss, as without it you'd be lost.

 

Too many fat *******s eating all the pie, too many billionaires and massive corporations avoiding tax, too many people not producing or contributing, too many people full stop. High expectations of living standards, people living too long.

Too many rules and regulations, not enough personal responsibility for ones own actions.
Too much destructive behaviour, fighting, war, drinking, smoking, eating crap, crime etc.

Too many money men with the snout in the trough like leaving Billy Bunter in charge of the tuck shop, all smoke and mirrors creating money that doesnt exist. Too many governmental gravy trains soaking up public funds, too much scope creep of the welfare state.

 

Yes I think you have grasped the situation well enough.

Les

 

I am going to take it personally soon

Bloody share save at work was going to pay out 13 large at one point, now half that, still not a bad return if it doesnt plummet further, hoping for a bit of a stabilisation by the end of the year as I can then get my grubby mitts on the cash, or at least have the option to sell, this is my car fund and at the moment I am into budget Korean hatchback territory

Still if nothing else I will have 250 a month I don't have to pay in out of my wages and the wife is earning, woohoo !

I follow the markets with interest, its pathetic really as all I am after is a knackered ten year old M3, not too much to ask is it !

 

Did sharesaves for over 25 years and they have given me a pretty good lifestyle to be honest.

 

FTSE 100 is less than it was in 2000. So much for equities continuously making money for us to retire on?

 

FSTE has lost 40% in a decade. So much for stocks and shares eh.

Anyway put 2016 in your memories. 2016 is when our (the UK's) debts are due. We don't, and won't have the money. Bankrupt. Look at Greece. That'll be us in 5 years.

 

I'm confident that over the long-run they still can be. If the market can correct (that is, if it's allowed to), it will stop at a lower, realistically valued level. Hopefully that will happen, and the long-term investor (like myself) buying at that cheaper level from then on will average out. They can get back to performing well, in theory. Whether they'll be allowed to or not with the political situation as it is... that's another story. Let's hope so. Where else do you put your money if not?

 

Well we have this 'paradigm' that equities are going to out perform everything else - talking as an index not active trading - and that this is the key to everyone's pensions etc.

The last 10 years have shown this to be rubbish though. The index went from about 1000 in 1985, to 5000 in 1998, and it is this stellar performance that we have assumed as typical....and projected it in a straight line forever. We all put our relatively tiny pension contributions (which is massive if you are pslewis though ) into these funds which basically just track indexes and hope it 30 years so we can retire with good lifestyles.

I'm just wondering if it is no less a ponzi scheme than state funded pensions?

Where do you put your money indeed?

 

I think the Gov projections show our national debt as a % GDP peaks about 2015/16 at about 90%.

We can't go bankrupt every so long as we have sterling we can just print money BTW, but I get your point. Anyway if we are still in deficit then I think the markets will still lend at 90% GDP???

 

FU`ck it.

The world ends in 2012 so what's the problem?

Let's enjoy it whilst we can.

 

Can't understand why it is going to be 4 days before Christmas too, seems unfair to me.

Les

 

Might get me out of CHristmas with the in-laws if my actions recently havent

 

Is ANYBODY expecting a smallish rally tomorrow/this week before it falls thro the floor ??

 

It'll all come good in the end, always does. Far too many doom mongers around at the moment.

Chip

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Z9WVZddH9w

Watch it, it is very good, will need best part of 3 hours though