Any Private Investors/Short Term Traders Here?
07 December 2009, 09:01 PM
#151
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What world do you guys live in? Things looking rosier? US dollar back to strength? With the greatest respect, I don't see the world like that at all. I wonder if you guys have a bit of tunnel vision. USA and UK (and others) are printing money and will have to continue to do so. There are bad debts out there yet that they haven't come clean on. In the US there are whole states that can't pay their debts, huge insurance companies with massive exposure to commercial property time bomb. They will all soon go cap in hand to the fed, who will have to print more money. Do you, in all your wisdom really think you can just make more and more of something and not devalue it? Do you guys really not see this?
Telboy, you ask where $1500 comes from in 'technical' terms? Not everything can be explained that way, otherwise all you chaps who do technical analysis would be multi billionaires. I'm sure you do well, but I take it you aren't?
From a historical perspective, gold hit $850 in the 1980s, inflation adjusted that would be over $2000.
Marky, yes I will still be in gold if it drops to $1100. It is not worthwhile for me to trade in and out, I'm bullish on gold over the next 2-3 years, so don't need the hassle. I'm confidant in that and so its easier for me to stay invested, remember I started buying at $650. I will use the dips though to buy more.
The difference is that you see 'electronic' gold as just a means to a potential profit, I see PHYSICAL gold as a essential hedge against devaluing paper money. When India drew a line in the sand and bought £200 million of gold, they didn't buy it in an ETF with a stop loss did they? They bought physical, its different. You either get that or you don't.
Telboy, you ask where $1500 comes from in 'technical' terms? Not everything can be explained that way, otherwise all you chaps who do technical analysis would be multi billionaires. I'm sure you do well, but I take it you aren't?
From a historical perspective, gold hit $850 in the 1980s, inflation adjusted that would be over $2000.
Marky, yes I will still be in gold if it drops to $1100. It is not worthwhile for me to trade in and out, I'm bullish on gold over the next 2-3 years, so don't need the hassle. I'm confidant in that and so its easier for me to stay invested, remember I started buying at $650. I will use the dips though to buy more.
The difference is that you see 'electronic' gold as just a means to a potential profit, I see PHYSICAL gold as a essential hedge against devaluing paper money. When India drew a line in the sand and bought £200 million of gold, they didn't buy it in an ETF with a stop loss did they? They bought physical, its different. You either get that or you don't.
07 December 2009, 10:45 PM
#153
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Don't you see any of this when you are staring at your charts?
08 December 2009, 08:06 AM
#154
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No I don't get it. To be honest I don't really see much point in being further involved in this thread. With respect if a market falls 30% and you will still be in your exposure is obviously not material enough to make any substantial difference to you. We clearly have such divergent views of what we want from these markets we will never agree so there is no point. As I said I will go for it if I fancy something - the reason I won't be 30% offside is that I can't afford to lose that kind of money because if I trade something I trade it big enough to make a difference. I'll risk x on gold to try and make 20x. It seems to me like you will risk 10x to make x....
To be fair it's easy to be bullish on Gold if when you are wrong you lose 1% of your net worth! It seems to me like that might be the case with you but at the end of the day I don't know that and I don't really care that much. What I do know though is you don't have the mentality of a trader and I suspect you will never make BIG money!
To be fair it's easy to be bullish on Gold if when you are wrong you lose 1% of your net worth! It seems to me like that might be the case with you but at the end of the day I don't know that and I don't really care that much. What I do know though is you don't have the mentality of a trader and I suspect you will never make BIG money!
08 December 2009, 08:08 AM
#155
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Are you being serious? Are you saying that you don't think there are further bad debts that were not fully revealed, or further bad debts evolving ie commercial property, eastern europe, or dare I say Dubai?
Don't you see any of this when you are staring at your charts?
Don't you see any of this when you are staring at your charts?
08 December 2009, 08:17 AM
#156
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DD, you're turning this thread into something it wasn't intended to be. I'm not particularly interested in answering points based around "Don't you see that when you're staring at your charts".
Good luck with your investment decisions.
Good luck with your investment decisions.
08 December 2009, 08:30 AM
#157
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No I don't get it. To be honest I don't really see much point in being further involved in this thread. With respect if a market falls 30% and you will still be in your exposure is obviously not material enough to make any substantial difference to you. We clearly have such divergent views of what we want from these markets we will never agree so there is no point. As I said I will go for it if I fancy something - the reason I won't be 30% offside is that I can't afford to lose that kind of money because if I trade something I trade it big enough to make a difference. I'll risk x on gold to try and make 20x. It seems to me like you will risk 10x to make x....
To be fair it's easy to be bullish on Gold if when you are wrong you lose 1% of your net worth! It seems to me like that might be the case with you but at the end of the day I don't know that and I don't really care that much. What I do know though is you don't have the mentality of a trader and I suspect you will never make BIG money!
To be fair it's easy to be bullish on Gold if when you are wrong you lose 1% of your net worth! It seems to me like that might be the case with you but at the end of the day I don't know that and I don't really care that much. What I do know though is you don't have the mentality of a trader and I suspect you will never make BIG money!
1) No I don't have the mentality of a trader, I am not a trader, I don't want to be a trader. I don't need to be a trader, I have a job.
2) No, I don't invest x in gold to make 20x, I've said before I am not a speculator but believe in gold as a store of value. Its a method to PRESERVE WEALTH, when paper money is being printed like toilet paper. I don't need to make BIG money as you put it from gold, I need to 'insure' my wealth.
3) Dubai was just ONE example, you conveniantly ignored all the other potential debt defaulters. Maybe you think these things won't affect long term markets, but MANY economists would disagree, I'm not on my own on this!
I thought I has already stated or implied 1) and 2) before, but have spelt it out again.
08 December 2009, 09:15 AM
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This thread makes me laugh. There is no right or no wrong, there is just making money and losing money. Having said that you could be right about something and still lose money, that's the nature of the beast. If we all agreed then there would be no seller in the market to enable you to buy or vice versa and if it was easy every one would be doing it!
08 December 2009, 09:41 AM
#161
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What have I started here? 
Let's get this thread back on track. Exchanging ideas or just chat about the markets and strategies in general.
I'm not particularly bothered about Dingdongler or anyone else putting across their views as I'm big enough to make my own decisions(which maybe wasn't such a good thing last week
). It would be good to keep this thread going.
Let's get this thread back on track. Exchanging ideas or just chat about the markets and strategies in general.
I'm not particularly bothered about Dingdongler or anyone else putting across their views as I'm big enough to make my own decisions(which maybe wasn't such a good thing last week
). It would be good to keep this thread going.
08 December 2009, 09:46 AM
#162
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This thread makes me laugh. There is no right or no wrong, there is just making money and losing money. Having said that you could be right about something and still lose money, that's the nature of the beast. If we all agreed then there would be no seller in the market to enable you to buy or vice versa and if it was easy every one would be doing it!
08 December 2009, 10:36 AM
#164
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14 December 2009, 07:43 PM
#165
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Reading charts IMO is an art not a science, you want to start by getting a good understanding of candlesticks and start paper trading using some basic oscillators and indicators, just remember price and volume are essential to TA pretty much every tool is a derivative from these two variables!
A good start would be looking into MACD, RSI, Stochastic, Williams %R and while understanding what they mean Moving Averages are a very handsome trend tool giving you a good chance to make entry into a rally at a decent price again suggest 200 day, 70,50,30,10 day moving averages and a mix between a simple MA and an exponential MA and just find what works for you from there. Also then have a look at bollinger bands, what they represent and the different ways they can be used. Most importantly though don't over saturate yourself with these as it is very easy to see conflicting signals, false signals etc. stick to maybe 2 or 3 oscillators a few moving averages and a good understanding of candlesticks and you should start to see new ways to generate trade ideas.
A good start would be looking into MACD, RSI, Stochastic, Williams %R and while understanding what they mean Moving Averages are a very handsome trend tool giving you a good chance to make entry into a rally at a decent price again suggest 200 day, 70,50,30,10 day moving averages and a mix between a simple MA and an exponential MA and just find what works for you from there. Also then have a look at bollinger bands, what they represent and the different ways they can be used. Most importantly though don't over saturate yourself with these as it is very easy to see conflicting signals, false signals etc. stick to maybe 2 or 3 oscillators a few moving averages and a good understanding of candlesticks and you should start to see new ways to generate trade ideas.
Cheers for the advice, it looks like something I have stupidly been ignoring.
22 December 2009, 04:11 PM
#169
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30 December 2009, 12:58 AM
#170
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Have a question for the experienced guys here...
Of the following two money management/trading strategies, which is the most realistic to you? Maybe neither are any good?
1)
- A 30% success rate with trades, using a system based on moving averages as signals when they cross over in the direction of trend.
- Risking 1x to make 2.5x.
- Total P/L after 10 trades = +0.5x
2)
- A 40% success rate with trades using the same kind of system.
- Risking 1x to make 2x.
- Total P/L after 10 trades = +2x.
Maybe you aren't a fan of systems at all, but all opinions welcome.
Of the following two money management/trading strategies, which is the most realistic to you? Maybe neither are any good?
1)
- A 30% success rate with trades, using a system based on moving averages as signals when they cross over in the direction of trend.
- Risking 1x to make 2.5x.
- Total P/L after 10 trades = +0.5x
2)
- A 40% success rate with trades using the same kind of system.
- Risking 1x to make 2x.
- Total P/L after 10 trades = +2x.
Maybe you aren't a fan of systems at all, but all opinions welcome.
Last edited by GlesgaKiss; 30 December 2009 at 01:05 AM.
30 December 2009, 08:48 AM
#171
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Mathematically speaking number 2 makes the most money and wins "more times" than number 1 so is going to be less abrasive on your confidence in placing trades. Seems like a no brainer
30 December 2009, 09:43 AM
#173
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That's true Tel, but the system if it holds remains profitable and over time that will accumulate if profits are reinvested. As Alan gets more experienced that ratio of winners to losers will continue to move in his favour one would assume. We all have to start somewhere!
Last edited by alloy; 30 December 2009 at 10:30 AM.
30 December 2009, 09:53 AM
#174
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I'm still struggling with the maths.
If system 2 has a 40% success rate, investing 1x to win 2x will result in 0.8x after 10 trades, not 2x. Or am i missing something obvious?
If system 2 has a 40% success rate, investing 1x to win 2x will result in 0.8x after 10 trades, not 2x. Or am i missing something obvious?
30 December 2009, 10:03 AM
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System 2 returns profit of 2 and has a risk of 1. so if you say you accept a £100 risk you look for £200 profit
It wins 4 times out of 10
so profit = 200 * 4 = 800
Loss= 100 * 6 = -600
Therefore is profitable to the tune of £200 for example!
It wins 4 times out of 10
so profit = 200 * 4 = 800
Loss= 100 * 6 = -600
Therefore is profitable to the tune of £200 for example!
30 December 2009, 10:26 AM
#177
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Cheers guys. Was really trying to be conservative with the percentage of winners for the worst case when I said that, if you know what I mean? Although that's not to say there won't be times when you could have 10 straight losses or wins in a row.
But yes, ideally it would be more winners than losers.
And Alloy... who's Glen? Lol
But yes, ideally it would be more winners than losers.
And Alloy... who's Glen? Lol
30 December 2009, 10:31 AM
#178
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Yeah again you're right the thing is we all have different ways to view the market, those long term "investors" nurse losses and sit with things over time, this to me represents an opportunity cost of being invested! Where as a trader we look to cut things that don't work at predetermined levels and get onto the next chance that may be within our favour!
I am not concerned about the 6-12 month view of the market, and it is my view that those analysts that are concerned with this time frame are full of BS. This is because the public have a short memory so when they get things wrong "we" don't remember them and of course as the 6mth target draws closer they can say things have changed and therefore change their view on the company leaving an investor high and dry. This is useless. I am only concerned with what will happen today upto a maximum of 2 weeks in to the future, with that in mind i will get things wrong but i'll get a lot of things right as well. Taking losses is just part of the game and as long as you are profitable on a consistent basis you are a winner. Time will lead to experience and then experience will lead to better returns and larger % of winners, it's the chicken and the egg scenario as to what comes first but profitability is a good start no matter how skinny!
I am not concerned about the 6-12 month view of the market, and it is my view that those analysts that are concerned with this time frame are full of BS. This is because the public have a short memory so when they get things wrong "we" don't remember them and of course as the 6mth target draws closer they can say things have changed and therefore change their view on the company leaving an investor high and dry. This is useless. I am only concerned with what will happen today upto a maximum of 2 weeks in to the future, with that in mind i will get things wrong but i'll get a lot of things right as well. Taking losses is just part of the game and as long as you are profitable on a consistent basis you are a winner. Time will lead to experience and then experience will lead to better returns and larger % of winners, it's the chicken and the egg scenario as to what comes first but profitability is a good start no matter how skinny!
30 December 2009, 10:32 AM
#179
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30 December 2009, 10:35 AM
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I'm still amazed at how some days the market moves as if it's only just realised the bigger picture, whereas the relevant information has been in the public domain for days. Getting it right ahead of movements like that is fantastic, even though it doesn't happen often. Having a "feeling" that the price is wrong and not dealing on it is a crime!!