Global warming over.
Scooby Regular
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 8,222
Likes: 0
From: Type 25. Build No.34
World faces hottest year ever, as El Niņo combines with global warming - Climate Change, Environment - The Independent
Written on 01/01/2007 An extract:
Combined, they are set to bring extreme conditions across the globe and make 2007 warmer than 1998, the hottest year on record. It is likely temperatures will also exceed 2006, which was declared in December the hottest in Britain since 1659 and the sixth warmest in global records.
Written on 01/01/2007 An extract:
Combined, they are set to bring extreme conditions across the globe and make 2007 warmer than 1998, the hottest year on record. It is likely temperatures will also exceed 2006, which was declared in December the hottest in Britain since 1659 and the sixth warmest in global records.
NASA - 2005 Warmest Year in Over a Century
"The five warmest years over the last century occurred in the last eight years," said James Hansen, director of NASA GISS. They stack up as follows: the warmest was 2005, then 1998, 2002, 2003 and 2004.
Last edited by Martin2005; Jan 6, 2009 at 12:19 PM.
Scooby Regular
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 3,236
Likes: 0
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...obal-doom.html
Written 14/12/06
The latest evidence of global warming in Britain is revealed by preliminary temperature figures for 2006 released by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit.
One of the authors of the study, Prof Phil Jones, of UEA, warned that a climate phenomenon called El Nino is likely to push the mercury up next year so it will rival 1998, the hottest year ever recorded.
Oh what a surprise, scientists can't even decide what the temperature was in the past, let alone the future!
Written 14/12/06
The latest evidence of global warming in Britain is revealed by preliminary temperature figures for 2006 released by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit.
One of the authors of the study, Prof Phil Jones, of UEA, warned that a climate phenomenon called El Nino is likely to push the mercury up next year so it will rival 1998, the hottest year ever recorded.
Oh what a surprise, scientists can't even decide what the temperature was in the past, let alone the future!
Guest
Posts: n/a
Dave
Scooby Regular
Joined: May 2004
Posts: 1,433
Likes: 12
From: Japan
On whose 
authority? Absolutely impossible to say if this is true or not, IMHO.
How many measures were used? At what levels in the atmosphere? Surface, at altitude (what altitudes?), in which continents, all, some, most? Was median (mean) average (absolute deviation) used or some other averaging calc?
Over how many years? From earliest records?. If so were 'they' using the same instrumentation (as the original records) in the same locations/altitudes or different equipment? Did 'they' calibrate their instruments against a recognised standard? What is the +/- error factor?
So many questions and so few answers!
authority? Absolutely impossible to say if this is true or not, IMHO. How many measures were used? At what levels in the atmosphere? Surface, at altitude (what altitudes?), in which continents, all, some, most? Was median (mean) average (absolute deviation) used or some other averaging calc?
Over how many years? From earliest records?. If so were 'they' using the same instrumentation (as the original records) in the same locations/altitudes or different equipment? Did 'they' calibrate their instruments against a recognised standard? What is the +/- error factor?
So many questions and so few answers!
Last edited by coolangatta; Jan 6, 2009 at 01:03 PM.
Scooby Regular
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 80,907
Likes: 0
From: God's promised land
Scooby Regular
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 39,877
Likes: 0
Ah yes. If you look at NASA - 2005 Warmest Year in Over a Century then you could very well think that. BUT the data was shown to be, umm, *inaccurate*. NASA had to release amended figures which puts the hottest year as 1934 .... See James Hansen: Cooking the NASA Books for Climate Change | DBKP - Death By 1000 Papercuts - DBKP for details and links to the amended data (only chose this link 'cos it was first when I googled ....).
Dave
Dave
Les
Guest
Posts: n/a
On who's authority? Absolutely impossible to say if this is true or not, IMHO.
How many measures were used? At what levels in the atmosphere? Surface, at altitude (what altitudes?), in which continents, all, some, most? Was median (mean) average (absolute deviation) used or some other averaging calc?
Over how many years? From earliest records?. If so were 'they' using the same instrumentation (as the original records) in the same locations/altitudes or different equipment? Did 'they' calibrate their instruments against a recognised standard? What is the +/- error factor?
So many questions and so few answers!
How many measures were used? At what levels in the atmosphere? Surface, at altitude (what altitudes?), in which continents, all, some, most? Was median (mean) average (absolute deviation) used or some other averaging calc?
Over how many years? From earliest records?. If so were 'they' using the same instrumentation (as the original records) in the same locations/altitudes or different equipment? Did 'they' calibrate their instruments against a recognised standard? What is the +/- error factor?
So many questions and so few answers!
Exactly! If anyone is interested here is what I posted from Nasa last year ...
Oh look - Data @ NASA GISS: GISTEMP -- Elusive Absolute Surface Air Temperature
Just what I've been arguing on here many times. How the H3ll do you measure *average* temperature! From this link those unqualified NASA folks say you can't ......
"GISS Surface Temperature Analysis
The Elusive Absolute Surface Air Temperature (SAT)
Q. What exactly do we mean by SAT ?
A. I doubt that there is a general agreement how to answer this question. Even at the same location, the temperature near the ground may be very different from the temperature 5 ft above the ground and different again from 10 ft or 50 ft above the ground. Particularly in the presence of vegetation (say in a rain forest), the temperature above the vegetation may be very different from the temperature below the top of the vegetation. A reasonable suggestion might be to use the average temperature of the first 50 ft of air either above ground or above the top of the vegetation. To measure SAT we have to agree on what it is and, as far as I know, no such standard has been suggested or generally adopted. Even if the 50 ft standard were adopted, I cannot imagine that a weather station would build a 50 ft stack of thermometers to be able to find the true SAT at its location.
Q. What do we mean by daily mean SAT ?
A. Again, there is no universally accepted correct answer. Should we note the temperature every 6 hours and report the mean, should we do it every 2 hours, hourly, have a machine record it every second, or simply take the average of the highest and lowest temperature of the day ? On some days the various methods may lead to drastically different results.
Q. What SAT do the local media report ?
A. The media report the reading of 1 particular thermometer of a nearby weather station. This temperature may be very different from the true SAT even at that location and has certainly nothing to do with the true regional SAT. To measure the true regional SAT, we would have to use many 50 ft stacks of thermometers distributed evenly over the whole region, an obvious practical impossibility.
Q. If the reported SATs are not the true SATs, why are they still useful ?
A. The reported temperature is truly meaningful only to a person who happens to visit the weather station at the precise moment when the reported temperature is measured, in other words, to nobody. However, in addition to the SAT the reports usually also mention whether the current temperature is unusually high or unusually low, how much it differs from the normal temperature, and that information (the anomaly) is meaningful for the whole region. Also, if we hear a temperature (say 70F), we instinctively translate it into hot or cold, but our translation key depends on the season and region, the same temperature may be 'hot' in winter and 'cold' in July, since by 'hot' we always mean 'hotter than normal', i.e. we all translate absolute temperatures automatically into anomalies whether we are aware of it or not.
Q. If SATs cannot be measured, how are SAT maps created ?
A. This can only be done with the help of computer models, the same models that are used to create the daily weather forecasts. We may start out the model with the few observed data that are available and fill in the rest with guesses (also called extrapolations) and then let the model run long enough so that the initial guesses no longer matter, but not too long in order to avoid that the inaccuracies of the model become relevant. This may be done starting from conditions from many years, so that the average (called a 'climatology') hopefully represents a typical map for the particular month or day of the year.
Q. What do I do if I need absolute SATs, not anomalies ?
A. In 99.9% of the cases you'll find that anomalies are exactly what you need, not absolute temperatures. In the remaining cases, you have to pick one of the available climatologies and add the anomalies (with respect to the proper base period) to it. For the global mean, the most trusted models produce a value of roughly 14 Celsius, i.e. 57.2 F, but it may easily be anywhere between 56 and 58 F and regionally, let alone locally, the situation is even worse".
Enjoy!
Dave
Just what I've been arguing on here many times. How the H3ll do you measure *average* temperature! From this link those unqualified NASA folks say you can't ......
"GISS Surface Temperature Analysis
The Elusive Absolute Surface Air Temperature (SAT)
Q. What exactly do we mean by SAT ?
A. I doubt that there is a general agreement how to answer this question. Even at the same location, the temperature near the ground may be very different from the temperature 5 ft above the ground and different again from 10 ft or 50 ft above the ground. Particularly in the presence of vegetation (say in a rain forest), the temperature above the vegetation may be very different from the temperature below the top of the vegetation. A reasonable suggestion might be to use the average temperature of the first 50 ft of air either above ground or above the top of the vegetation. To measure SAT we have to agree on what it is and, as far as I know, no such standard has been suggested or generally adopted. Even if the 50 ft standard were adopted, I cannot imagine that a weather station would build a 50 ft stack of thermometers to be able to find the true SAT at its location.
Q. What do we mean by daily mean SAT ?
A. Again, there is no universally accepted correct answer. Should we note the temperature every 6 hours and report the mean, should we do it every 2 hours, hourly, have a machine record it every second, or simply take the average of the highest and lowest temperature of the day ? On some days the various methods may lead to drastically different results.
Q. What SAT do the local media report ?
A. The media report the reading of 1 particular thermometer of a nearby weather station. This temperature may be very different from the true SAT even at that location and has certainly nothing to do with the true regional SAT. To measure the true regional SAT, we would have to use many 50 ft stacks of thermometers distributed evenly over the whole region, an obvious practical impossibility.
Q. If the reported SATs are not the true SATs, why are they still useful ?
A. The reported temperature is truly meaningful only to a person who happens to visit the weather station at the precise moment when the reported temperature is measured, in other words, to nobody. However, in addition to the SAT the reports usually also mention whether the current temperature is unusually high or unusually low, how much it differs from the normal temperature, and that information (the anomaly) is meaningful for the whole region. Also, if we hear a temperature (say 70F), we instinctively translate it into hot or cold, but our translation key depends on the season and region, the same temperature may be 'hot' in winter and 'cold' in July, since by 'hot' we always mean 'hotter than normal', i.e. we all translate absolute temperatures automatically into anomalies whether we are aware of it or not.
Q. If SATs cannot be measured, how are SAT maps created ?
A. This can only be done with the help of computer models, the same models that are used to create the daily weather forecasts. We may start out the model with the few observed data that are available and fill in the rest with guesses (also called extrapolations) and then let the model run long enough so that the initial guesses no longer matter, but not too long in order to avoid that the inaccuracies of the model become relevant. This may be done starting from conditions from many years, so that the average (called a 'climatology') hopefully represents a typical map for the particular month or day of the year.
Q. What do I do if I need absolute SATs, not anomalies ?
A. In 99.9% of the cases you'll find that anomalies are exactly what you need, not absolute temperatures. In the remaining cases, you have to pick one of the available climatologies and add the anomalies (with respect to the proper base period) to it. For the global mean, the most trusted models produce a value of roughly 14 Celsius, i.e. 57.2 F, but it may easily be anywhere between 56 and 58 F and regionally, let alone locally, the situation is even worse".
Enjoy!
Dave
Scooby Regular
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 8,222
Likes: 0
From: Type 25. Build No.34
On whose authority? Absolutely impossible to say if this is true or not, IMHO.
How many measures were used? At what levels in the atmosphere? Surface, at altitude (what altitudes?), in which continents, all, some, most? Was median (mean) average (absolute deviation) used or some other averaging calc?
Over how many years? From earliest records?. If so were 'they' using the same instrumentation (as the original records) in the same locations/altitudes or different equipment? Did 'they' calibrate their instruments against a recognised standard? What is the +/- error factor?
So many questions and so few answers!
authority? Absolutely impossible to say if this is true or not, IMHO. How many measures were used? At what levels in the atmosphere? Surface, at altitude (what altitudes?), in which continents, all, some, most? Was median (mean) average (absolute deviation) used or some other averaging calc?
Over how many years? From earliest records?. If so were 'they' using the same instrumentation (as the original records) in the same locations/altitudes or different equipment? Did 'they' calibrate their instruments against a recognised standard? What is the +/- error factor?
So many questions and so few answers!
????????
the same methodology for measuring any other years temps
Scooby Regular
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 7,647
Likes: 22
Horay to Gordon and his mates!!! His green taxes are working as its definitely much colder now than a few years ago. Lets hope he brings in more green taxes! Hip! Hip! Horay!
On a side note, can anyone define climate change? What makes climate change so bad that people want to STOP it and how is it any different to changes we've had since the Earth came about?
On a side note, can anyone define climate change? What makes climate change so bad that people want to STOP it and how is it any different to changes we've had since the Earth came about?
Scooby Regular
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 8,222
Likes: 0
From: Type 25. Build No.34
Guest
Posts: n/a
Try Data @ NASA GISS: GISTEMP -- Elusive Absolute Surface Air Temperature .. didn't get through the 'quote' button ....
Dave
Dave
Scooby Regular
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 3,236
Likes: 0
Quote:
"No they hadn't thought of that, or maybe they left them in to deliberately skew the results "
So can you confirm what they have done with all the weather stations then, did they move every one to ensure accurate results? Or do you just resort to sarcasm when you run out of ideas to back up your argument.
"No they hadn't thought of that, or maybe they left them in to deliberately skew the results
"So can you confirm what they have done with all the weather stations then, did they move every one to ensure accurate results? Or do you just resort to sarcasm when you run out of ideas to back up your argument.
Guest
Posts: n/a
Interesting graphs at 50 Years of CO2: Time for a Vision Test Roy Spencer, Ph. D. Put some perspective into the CO2 thing ...
Dave
Dave
Guest
Posts: n/a
" ...
The cold weather is expected to persist over the weekend and into next week with widespread frost and temperatures plummeting to -9 °C in some parts of the country ... "
Hmmmm.......
Dave
Guest
Posts: n/a
Dave
Scooby Regular
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 8,222
Likes: 0
From: Type 25. Build No.34
. Try concerned citizen, or someone who doesn't believe ANY conspiracy theory going in order to justify my lamentable position
Scooby Regular
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 1,281
Likes: 0
From: Oxford- the shire
I wonder who and how these people calculate the frequency of interglacial periods, and ice ages, how long they last for etc, and how would they calculate or predict any kind of regularity?
Scooby Regular
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,911
Likes: 0
There have been record lows across many NH regions, so it's not just "local weather" that's cooler, for some reason, this winter. For us here in the SH, the summer has started off with many days with lower highs than last year.
I always laugh when I see average temperatures quoted against absolute daily temperatures. It reminds me of the airline industry, well at least the industry in the US. All carriers, until about 2003 I think it was, calculated passenger and baggage weight based on the average of what 1930's people used to weigh and carry onto aircraft. Due to a crash, which wiped out 21 people a few minutes into take off (Smaller aircraft are affected more by this but the principal is the same), changed all that. It is not good to use averages when comparing absolutes.
I always laugh when I see average temperatures quoted against absolute daily temperatures. It reminds me of the airline industry, well at least the industry in the US. All carriers, until about 2003 I think it was, calculated passenger and baggage weight based on the average of what 1930's people used to weigh and carry onto aircraft. Due to a crash, which wiped out 21 people a few minutes into take off (Smaller aircraft are affected more by this but the principal is the same), changed all that. It is not good to use averages when comparing absolutes.
Last edited by Klaatu; Jan 7, 2009 at 01:29 AM.
Scooby Regular
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 2,490
Likes: 0
With the remake of that film I know now the significance of the name Klaatu.
Never realised before!
Does anyone know what the Councils did before we sorted all the bottles and paper for them? Has the workforce got more time to play cards now?
Also I thought the bottom had dropped out the recycling market in terms of councils flogging the stuff.I understood no one wants it?
Never realised before!
Does anyone know what the Councils did before we sorted all the bottles and paper for them? Has the workforce got more time to play cards now?
Also I thought the bottom had dropped out the recycling market in terms of councils flogging the stuff.I understood no one wants it?
Scooby Regular
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 3,236
Likes: 0
Quote:
"'Eco Warrior' - you really are a fukin idiot sometimes . Try concerned citizen, or someone who doesn't believe ANY conspiracy theory going in order to justify my lamentable position "
So you're a concerned citizen who gives it all the green talk, but you're not prepared to back up your convictions with any action, other than make sure you don't leave your TV on standby overnight!
I'd be ashamed to be as convinced as you are that we are causing a problem, and yet refuse to change your lifestyle to do anything about it.
"'Eco Warrior' - you really are a fukin idiot sometimes
. Try concerned citizen, or someone who doesn't believe ANY conspiracy theory going in order to justify my lamentable position "So you're a concerned citizen who gives it all the green talk, but you're not prepared to back up your convictions with any action, other than make sure you don't leave your TV on standby overnight!
I'd be ashamed to be as convinced as you are that we are causing a problem, and yet refuse to change your lifestyle to do anything about it.
Scooby Regular
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,911
Likes: 0
With the remake of that film I know now the significance of the name Klaatu.
Never realised before!
Does anyone know what the Councils did before we sorted all the bottles and paper for them? Has the workforce got more time to play cards now?
Also I thought the bottom had dropped out the recycling market in terms of councils flogging the stuff.I understood no one wants it?
Never realised before!
Does anyone know what the Councils did before we sorted all the bottles and paper for them? Has the workforce got more time to play cards now?
Also I thought the bottom had dropped out the recycling market in terms of councils flogging the stuff.I understood no one wants it?
There is an interesting mini-documentary by Penn and Teller: Bull****! (American) about recycling, among others, very interesting perspective but the overall theme is recycling is not as green as it appears to be.
Last edited by Klaatu; Jan 8, 2009 at 01:47 AM.
Scooby Regular
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,911
Likes: 0
Quote:
"'Eco Warrior' - you really are a fukin idiot sometimes . Try concerned citizen, or someone who doesn't believe ANY conspiracy theory going in order to justify my lamentable position "
So you're a concerned citizen who gives it all the green talk, but you're not prepared to back up your convictions with any action, other than make sure you don't leave your TV on standby overnight!
I'd be ashamed to be as convinced as you are that we are causing a problem, and yet refuse to change your lifestyle to do anything about it.
"'Eco Warrior' - you really are a fukin idiot sometimes
. Try concerned citizen, or someone who doesn't believe ANY conspiracy theory going in order to justify my lamentable position "So you're a concerned citizen who gives it all the green talk, but you're not prepared to back up your convictions with any action, other than make sure you don't leave your TV on standby overnight!
I'd be ashamed to be as convinced as you are that we are causing a problem, and yet refuse to change your lifestyle to do anything about it.
Scooby Regular
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,911
Likes: 0
The big chill experienced in the UK and Europe has reached the airwaves of Australia. Worst big chill in 30 years, but apparently, the big thaw is just around the corner. Will be interesting to see what happens as solar activity is still extremly low and sunspot cycle 24 has still to start.
Anyway, we've had a 20c day today here in Sydney. It feels like winter at the moment.
Anyway, we've had a 20c day today here in Sydney. It feels like winter at the moment.
