Probably Lymm area.

Have you not tried looking further oop North in areas like Ramsbottom ??
Not too much further .

Is that a joke?

Ok, makes sense now. I thought you lived in NHG but then got confused when some posts of yours elsewhere referred to your home being in a village.

Your posts on this thread are spot on by the way

ding - I used to think that I would never leave London, born and grew up there and loved it

but now, when I go back (i have to go in to to the city fairly regularly for work) I hate it, the noise and the dog **** especially, and all wrapped up in a very predatory environment.

London is a young mans game and i have not got the energy anymore

anyway, my views on house prices and property in general, are all based on my very personal experience, and I do appreciate it does not apply nationally

i have thought of other investments, and I know you have done very well out of gold etc, (i admire your belief and commitment to it), but I just can't help feeling the odds are skewed in favour of the big boys (Banks, Institutional investors, traders etc) and you have to really really beat the market, plus are competing with the likes of Alloy

it's all a punt at the end of the day, and we have to live with the consequences

But the market doesn't. It's decided by politicians who abate the masses. I thought the same and rented for ages, against my better judgement.

The housing market isn't free. It should have timbled further than the 08 mini crash, but was saved from doing so by Labour, and is being propped up still.

No government will allow a massive rate rise to make 100s of 1000s of people default and bash the economy further, and lose votes. It's a rigged sytem.

This country has a love of owning a home and I can't see it changing. The market has changed to those with cash or access to money being those that buy. The rest rent. This just shifts the ratio to more buyers being investors.

This thread should be called House Prices Now At 2004 Levels in bad areas, but at new heights in nice areas.

The spring bounce is bouncing where I live. I'm pleased I bought in the winter of 2010 as every house around me sells in about 14 days for silly money.

Well history suggests that market forces can only be held back by government for so long.

That is just anecdotal and doesn't mean anything. Just because a property market is falling on average does not mean that some areas are not rising. Areas come and go with the fashions, new schools, roads get built etc all effecting local prices.

No. Its quite a nice little place 30 mins from Manchester centre .Lovely stone properties etc ..

Lol! This explains a lot!

1.4% drop in a month is a BIG shift!!

I know that the transaction levels are low and 0.5% +/- can be ignored ..... but, a 1.4% drop cannot be ignored!!

It's about to collapse!!

Hoping to exchange this week/complete next

Don't care what property does for the next few years, in it for the long haul now & will get a better return on my £ than offered in the banks...

Ok I see your point but to be honest I want to stay in the general area around Altrincham and more the Cheshire direction than towards Manchester.

It is a big shift you are right.

I'm watching this market very closely.

It's a good time to have some cash waiting to buy.

It certainly isn't a good time to be buying at the moment - prices are falling only moderately (down 3.7% in the last few months), but the real falls won't start until interest rates rise, and that probably won't start happening until later in the year.

Prices are currently 20% off their 2007 peaks, or down 29-30% in real terms (adjusted for inflation which is currrently running at around 5% remember) but they're still stupidly overpriced.

Even Halifax are predicting prices to be down 10% by early 2012, so expect to see them down more a fair bit more than that in reality.

The underlying fundamentals for the housing market are probably the worst they've ever been, so anyones guess how much prices could drop in a worst case/best case (depending on your opinion) scenario.

Finally...............

Vision and sense..

Interest Rates are the key to what happens, and when it happens.

Buy to Lets are active in the market as you can easily return 5% net ... maybe 6% or 7% - therefore, money is better in property than the Bank.

Cash buyers are active in the market for a different side of the same reasoning - crap returns on capital in most other investments ... they see property as risk free (a belief which will rise up to haunt them within 24 months).

Fast forward 8 months .... Interest Rates are climbing and are sitting at 4% (with more to come). Returns in the Banks are now 7% and the buy to let equation falls flat on its face. The buy to lets are placed on the market, in addition to the normal inflow and the cash buyers wanting to get out!!

Result? Well, you know what will happen .... a crash. Like that in 1990. Only the record low Interest Rates are sustaining the house prices.

Fast forward 8 months .... Interest Rates are climbing and are sitting at 4% (with more to come). Returns in the Banks are now 7% and the buy to let equation falls flat on its face. The buy to lets are placed on the market, in addition to the normal inflow and the cash buyers wanting to get out!!

Why would the BTL,s be put on the market at this stage ??
These are usually long term planners ,not quick get rich merchants .
Or do you think at this stage everyone will have bought their own property and there will be no need for Renting ??
When rates go up so do Rents usually ,as do mortgages so nobody ends up any better off ,the cycle continues.
Not forgetting the influx of all and sundry who need a roof over their heads .


Result? Well, you know what will happen .... a crash. Like that in 1990. Only the record low Interest Rates are sustaining the house prices.[/QUOTE]

Agree with you that low rates are sustaining the crash. Well slowing the crash because it is happening.

However if you think rates will be 4% in 8 months, you need to up the meds.

Yes you're right but under what scenario can you see interest rates going up?

I just can't see it happening - although it must surely at some point? - because there is so much indebtedness that it will kill our 'recovery' stone dead and plunge us into recession. It would kind of be economic suicide and **** off the homeowners who are almost inviolatable politically!

Wage inflation is about to burst out - you can only push people so far with goods inflation and holding their pay down ...... and this is where the real inflation lies - and why this will drive the Bank of England to act fast and act robustly.

If the BoE had a clue, they'd have raised rates 5 yearsa go.

Merv will remain 'vigilant' That is all.

Mervyn King.




Benny Hill.

Isn't inflation 'good' though since it will help blast away the collosal personal and national debt?

There goes my neighborhood!

Steve

Do you drive that Focus RS I've seen a few times at the Shell petrol station?

Sadly no. A white 320d.

Steve

Very good