House Prices Now At 2004 Levels
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From: Old Codgers Home
House prices to fall by 25% !!!!!!!!!
House prices are set to plunge by between 20 and 25% by the end of next year, a leading consultancy will warn tomorrow.
Clients of CheckRisk, the specialist investment strategy adviser, will be told that several trends will send property prices tumbling.
These include rising interest rates and inflation, worsening job prospects, the high levels of public and private debt and reduced mortgage lending.
'Effectively, British people have run out of money,' said Nick Bullman of CheckRisk.
The report's conclusions are here:-
Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgag...#ixzz1JollcQa6
Clients of CheckRisk, the specialist investment strategy adviser, will be told that several trends will send property prices tumbling.
These include rising interest rates and inflation, worsening job prospects, the high levels of public and private debt and reduced mortgage lending.
'Effectively, British people have run out of money,' said Nick Bullman of CheckRisk.
The report's conclusions are here:-
Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgag...#ixzz1JollcQa6
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From: Old Codgers Home
Scottish Housing Market goes down the Toilet ........... joining the Irish - Wales next and then England.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...iness-13266096
It's as plain as the pimple on my nose!!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...iness-13266096
It's as plain as the pimple on my nose!!
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My money is still waiting a while longer to buy. I'm in no rush.
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Scottish Housing Market goes down the Toilet ........... joining the Irish - Wales next and then England.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...iness-13266096
It's as plain as the pimple on my nose!!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...iness-13266096
It's as plain as the pimple on my nose!!
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From: Surrey/London borders.
Where I live, good housing stock is selling within a couple of weeks at 2007 + 5 - 10% extra. Bad areas are taking the hit, but nice areas are holding firm, and even going up.
The London/Surrey bubble keeps inflating with cash buyers.
I was concerned when I bought last year, but those fears are now gone from what I continue to see locally.
The London/Surrey bubble keeps inflating with cash buyers.
I was concerned when I bought last year, but those fears are now gone from what I continue to see locally.
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From: Scoobynet
Remember inflation needs to be factored in, so people who are saying "prices have only fallen 15-20% since 2007" need to remember that prices need to be about 9% higher just to be 'the same', so adjusted for inflation they're more like 25-30% down on peak 2007 levels.
Also the volume of home sales is still extremely low, due to buyers being unable to buy as banks will never lend like they did, and sellers living in cloud cucko land "oh it's worth £400k - it is it is!!" etc.
Some factors which will hit prices harder this year are rising interest rates, further job losses in the public sector and IMO a biggie is student fees.
With over 2/3 of uni's now charging £9000 a year fees the number of people going to uni will take a big hit, so the huge numbers of buy-to-lets in university towns like Leeds and Bristol will be struggling for tennants. I live in a studenty/young professional area of Leeds and over the road from me 4 shared houses in a row now have For Sale signs up.
Bottom line is house prices are still massively too high, so to get back to a 'normal' market in terms of transaction levels then either prices continue to fall slowly with inflation making the falls bigger than they appear, or prices drop more sharply. The end result of both is the same.
Also the volume of home sales is still extremely low, due to buyers being unable to buy as banks will never lend like they did, and sellers living in cloud cucko land "oh it's worth £400k - it is it is!!" etc.
Some factors which will hit prices harder this year are rising interest rates, further job losses in the public sector and IMO a biggie is student fees.
With over 2/3 of uni's now charging £9000 a year fees the number of people going to uni will take a big hit, so the huge numbers of buy-to-lets in university towns like Leeds and Bristol will be struggling for tennants. I live in a studenty/young professional area of Leeds and over the road from me 4 shared houses in a row now have For Sale signs up.
Bottom line is house prices are still massively too high, so to get back to a 'normal' market in terms of transaction levels then either prices continue to fall slowly with inflation making the falls bigger than they appear, or prices drop more sharply. The end result of both is the same.
Last edited by Petem95; May 4, 2011 at 11:46 AM.
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Remember inflation needs to be factored in, so people who are saying "prices have only fallen 15-20% since 2007" need to remember that prices need to be about 9% higher just to be 'the same', so adjusted for inflation they're more like 25-30% down on peak 2007 levels.
Also the volume of home sales is still extremely low, due to buyers being unable to buy as banks will never lend like they did, and sellers living in cloud cucko land "oh it's worth £400k - it is it is!!" etc.
Some factors which will hit prices harder this year are rising interest rates, further job losses in the public sector and IMO a biggie is student fees.
With over 2/3 of uni's now charging £9000 a year fees the number of people going to uni will take a big hit, so the huge numbers of buy-to-lets in university towns like Leeds and Bristol will be struggling for tennants. I live in a studenty/young professional area of Leeds and over the road from me 4 shared houses in a row now have For Sale signs up.
Bottom line is house prices are still massively too high, so to get back to a 'normal' market in terms of transaction levels then either prices continue to fall slowly with inflation making the falls bigger than they appear, or prices drop more sharply. The end result of both is the same.
Also the volume of home sales is still extremely low, due to buyers being unable to buy as banks will never lend like they did, and sellers living in cloud cucko land "oh it's worth £400k - it is it is!!" etc.
Some factors which will hit prices harder this year are rising interest rates, further job losses in the public sector and IMO a biggie is student fees.
With over 2/3 of uni's now charging £9000 a year fees the number of people going to uni will take a big hit, so the huge numbers of buy-to-lets in university towns like Leeds and Bristol will be struggling for tennants. I live in a studenty/young professional area of Leeds and over the road from me 4 shared houses in a row now have For Sale signs up.
Bottom line is house prices are still massively too high, so to get back to a 'normal' market in terms of transaction levels then either prices continue to fall slowly with inflation making the falls bigger than they appear, or prices drop more sharply. The end result of both is the same.
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The Good news is that Interest rates are unlikely to rise for some time according to Mervyn .!!!
The Bank of England interest rate may hover around 0.5% for at least another two years because of a weak economy and overwhelming personal debt.
Bank governor Mervyn King has hit out at interest rise hawks speculating that rates must soon go up in a speech to a finance committee at the European Parliament.
His view is too much borrowed money is sloshing around in the economy and raising interest rates would push too many people and businesses in to bankruptcy – and he sees the problem persisting for some years.
“The economic consequences of high-level indebtedness now would become more severe if rates were to rise,” said King.
“It is the main reason why interest rates are so low.”
“The sheer volume of debt in the economy is still very large and this poses massive macro-economic challenges that will last many years.”
The Bank of England interest rate may hover around 0.5% for at least another two years because of a weak economy and overwhelming personal debt.
Bank governor Mervyn King has hit out at interest rise hawks speculating that rates must soon go up in a speech to a finance committee at the European Parliament.
His view is too much borrowed money is sloshing around in the economy and raising interest rates would push too many people and businesses in to bankruptcy – and he sees the problem persisting for some years.
“The economic consequences of high-level indebtedness now would become more severe if rates were to rise,” said King.
“It is the main reason why interest rates are so low.”
“The sheer volume of debt in the economy is still very large and this poses massive macro-economic challenges that will last many years.”
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From: Runway two seven right.
Yep, so let's trash the entire economy for years, so help out ****wits who have over leverage and now can't afford a 0.25% increase in rates, when they are at all time historic lows.
Anyone that thinks we're out of the woods should have a listen to this.
http://jonathandaviswm.com/jonathan-davis-media/359/
The bit about deficit and debt is particularly interesting.
Anyone that thinks we're out of the woods should have a listen to this.
http://jonathandaviswm.com/jonathan-davis-media/359/
The bit about deficit and debt is particularly interesting.
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From: K
Where I live, good housing stock is selling within a couple of weeks at 2007 + 5 - 10% extra. Bad areas are taking the hit, but nice areas are holding firm, and even going up.
The London/Surrey bubble keeps inflating with cash buyers.
I was concerned when I bought last year, but those fears are now gone from what I continue to see locally.
The London/Surrey bubble keeps inflating with cash buyers.
I was concerned when I bought last year, but those fears are now gone from what I continue to see locally.
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From: Scoobynet
Where I live, good housing stock is selling within a couple of weeks at 2007 + 5 - 10% extra. Bad areas are taking the hit, but nice areas are holding firm, and even going up.
The London/Surrey bubble keeps inflating with cash buyers.
I was concerned when I bought last year, but those fears are now gone from what I continue to see locally.
The London/Surrey bubble keeps inflating with cash buyers.
I was concerned when I bought last year, but those fears are now gone from what I continue to see locally.
The problem is this will only ever continue so long - home transaction and FTB levels are extremely low. The market can't support itself forever with very little new money coming in at the bottom, and the only way that wil happen is for prices to fall to levels where new buyers can actually afford to buy.
When this happens transaction levels will go back to normal levels, but when everything starts moving again the areas where there is good housing stock will get dragged down too, as they'll suddently look stupidly overpriced.
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I work for multiple national housebuilders. Anything >£500k has and will always sell in the right area. First time buy and buy to let is dead and will be for sometime. Unsurprisingly residential sites we designed in say altrincham sell off plan for peak 2006 prices..... Regeneration schemes (800 units) in Salford with ( well withdrawn) government money is mothballed.
Location and how you finance is the key. Residential new build is booming - in the right locations....
Location and how you finance is the key. Residential new build is booming - in the right locations....
Sounds like a little bit of wishful thinking, but you could potentially be right as this will be current home owners moving house.
The problem is this will only ever continue so long - home transaction and FTB levels are extremely low. The market can't support itself forever with very little new money coming in at the bottom, and the only way that wil happen is for prices to fall to levels where new buyers can actually afford to buy.
When this happens transaction levels will go back to normal levels, but when everything starts moving again the areas where there is good housing stock will get dragged down too, as they'll suddently look stupidly overpriced.
The problem is this will only ever continue so long - home transaction and FTB levels are extremely low. The market can't support itself forever with very little new money coming in at the bottom, and the only way that wil happen is for prices to fall to levels where new buyers can actually afford to buy.
When this happens transaction levels will go back to normal levels, but when everything starts moving again the areas where there is good housing stock will get dragged down too, as they'll suddently look stupidly overpriced.
Just as an anecdotal, neighbour's house went up on sale for 410k (way above ceiling price for the road), and it sold after about three weeks on the market
Stuff that isn't "comedy priced" selling easily in bromley/petts wood/orpington, but even some of the comedy price stuff is being snapped up.
For a low life renter FTB (we didn't get invited to the street party on the wedding...), it sucks. We've got a decent size deposit (for FTB with no banks of mum's and dad's), but can't find anything that isn't a hovel for under 300k *or* isn't half an hours travel to the train station. I just see no value what so ever at the moment.
Then again, I suppose I shouldn't grumble too much. The rent's only 950 for a 2 bed house with a garage, and a mortgage would be around 1500 for a 300k house with our deposit, but having said that, I am slightly "losing my religion", especially with that idiot Mervyn King. We're 30 and 31 now, and we're not getting any younger.
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From: K
my younger brother has just bought in Acton (West London) good location, on the central line, 15 min walk from Westfield etc
he is a FTB, the property is a really nice light and spacious 3 bed maisonette, 300k, put down a 60k deposit and easily got a mortage for the rest (banks have plenty of money to lend)
repayments = circa 1.2k a month, but will easily let 2 bedrooms to cover that
he the lives rent free and gets the capital gain (it will be 400k in under 5 years easily) - double bubble
kushti
he is a FTB, the property is a really nice light and spacious 3 bed maisonette, 300k, put down a 60k deposit and easily got a mortage for the rest (banks have plenty of money to lend)
repayments = circa 1.2k a month, but will easily let 2 bedrooms to cover that
he the lives rent free and gets the capital gain (it will be 400k in under 5 years easily) - double bubble
kushti
Last edited by hodgy0_2; May 7, 2011 at 11:41 AM.
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From: Old Codgers Home
Hodgy - surely renters don't pay £600 a month for a bedroom?
The market does appear to be moving where I am looking - very slowly, mind you - it hasn't 'taken off' at all.
Then 2 months later when you see the actual sale price you realise that, to get a sale, people are accepting offers which are 70% of the asking price!!!
Of course, all anyone see's is a house for sale at £500k sell in 2 weeks - little do they know it sold for £350k!! Until the Land Registry posts the sale price (if they remember to look!).
Remember that if an Agent is selling 20 houses a year ... and this 'jumps' to 22 houses the next year - he can accurately claim that sales have increased 10%!!! WOW, that sounds great, doesn't it? Until you look closer and it is just 2 houses over 12 months!!
The turnover is so small now that any comparison to a 'normal' market is pointless ......... housing is, and will continue, to stagnate outside of the oversea's funded London market.
The market does appear to be moving where I am looking - very slowly, mind you - it hasn't 'taken off' at all.
Then 2 months later when you see the actual sale price you realise that, to get a sale, people are accepting offers which are 70% of the asking price!!!
Of course, all anyone see's is a house for sale at £500k sell in 2 weeks - little do they know it sold for £350k!! Until the Land Registry posts the sale price (if they remember to look!).
Remember that if an Agent is selling 20 houses a year ... and this 'jumps' to 22 houses the next year - he can accurately claim that sales have increased 10%!!! WOW, that sounds great, doesn't it? Until you look closer and it is just 2 houses over 12 months!!
The turnover is so small now that any comparison to a 'normal' market is pointless ......... housing is, and will continue, to stagnate outside of the oversea's funded London market.
Last edited by pslewis; May 7, 2011 at 01:42 PM.
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From: Scotland
It's all well and good talking about london and various other special situations, but the fact is that house prices in general are falling, and when you factor in inflation they are falling quite a bit! It's right there in front of your eyes if you want to look.
Can't wait to pick up a bargain in a couple of years.
Can't wait to pick up a bargain in a couple of years.
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From: K
Hodgy - surely renters don't pay £600 a month for a bedroom?
The market does appear to be moving where I am looking - very slowly, mind you - it hasn't 'taken off' at all.
Then 2 months later when you see the actual sale price you realise that, to get a sale, people are accepting offers which are 70% of the asking price!!!
Of course, all anyone see's is a house for sale at £500k sell in 2 weeks - little do they know it sold for £350k!! Until the Land Registry posts the sale price (if they remember to look!).
Remember that if an Agent is selling 20 houses a year ... and this 'jumps' to 22 houses the next year - he can accurately claim that sales have increased 10%!!! WOW, that sounds great, doesn't it? Until you look closer and it is just 2 houses over 12 months!!
The turnover is so small now that any comparison to a 'normal' market is pointless ......... housing is, and will continue, to stagnate outside of the oversea's funded London market.
The market does appear to be moving where I am looking - very slowly, mind you - it hasn't 'taken off' at all.
Then 2 months later when you see the actual sale price you realise that, to get a sale, people are accepting offers which are 70% of the asking price!!!
Of course, all anyone see's is a house for sale at £500k sell in 2 weeks - little do they know it sold for £350k!! Until the Land Registry posts the sale price (if they remember to look!).
Remember that if an Agent is selling 20 houses a year ... and this 'jumps' to 22 houses the next year - he can accurately claim that sales have increased 10%!!! WOW, that sounds great, doesn't it? Until you look closer and it is just 2 houses over 12 months!!
The turnover is so small now that any comparison to a 'normal' market is pointless ......... housing is, and will continue, to stagnate outside of the oversea's funded London market.
he would have a couple of hundred quid top up - big deal
why don't dip your toe into "the oversea's funded London market" -- the waters lovely
Last edited by hodgy0_2; May 7, 2011 at 02:04 PM.
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He'll be looking a a bit more than that if interest rates return to mean levels.
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From: In a house
I suppose this thread should be split into two,one for those in London and surrounding desirable counties and one for everywhere else.
I watch my local market very carefully and can tell you that over the last 6-12 months ceiling prices are being broken. Many properties are selling for top whack without even coming onto the market, ie estate agents have a buyer already waiting who is prepared to pay whatever the vendor wants.
And I'm talking about actually selling prices as per land registery and large family houses.
Obviously what I haven't take into account is inflation, so these prices are nominal value.
Hodgy, where are you based?
My in laws live in Ealing and prices seem to have just come down a tad compared to bubble prices but that part of London is served by so many tube stations (in law has three within 1 mile ) it will always be desirable.
I watch my local market very carefully and can tell you that over the last 6-12 months ceiling prices are being broken. Many properties are selling for top whack without even coming onto the market, ie estate agents have a buyer already waiting who is prepared to pay whatever the vendor wants.
And I'm talking about actually selling prices as per land registery and large family houses.
Obviously what I haven't take into account is inflation, so these prices are nominal value.
Hodgy, where are you based?
My in laws live in Ealing and prices seem to have just come down a tad compared to bubble prices but that part of London is served by so many tube stations (in law has three within 1 mile ) it will always be desirable.
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