Notices
Non Scooby Related Anything Non-Scooby related

I've missed the housing doom threads

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 29 May 2008, 12:41 PM
  #31  
NACRO
BANNED
 
NACRO's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Your home is worthless.You can't afford to run your car.Your job is on the line.Schadenfreude rules.
Posts: 4,787
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Default

Originally Posted by Henrik
I think you're far too optimistic there. A generation ruined, at least.
Here's hoping although if there is any justice their children will also pay the price for their stupidity.
Old 29 May 2008, 12:42 PM
  #32  
rossyboy
Scooby Regular
iTrader: (8)
 
rossyboy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Flying the Flag for the GC8A
Posts: 4,194
Received 94 Likes on 58 Posts
Default

100% P/Ex values
105% being offered round this way..
Old 29 May 2008, 02:43 PM
  #33  
Mitchy260
Scooby Regular
 
Mitchy260's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 1,300
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Default

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/May_2008.pdf

Peak of housing market Oct 2007... average home @ £186,044
Housing market at May 2008....average home @ £173,583

Showing a 6.7% slump on peak

If we extend the sequence to Oct 2008 in a linear fashion based on last 7 months stats for a true reflection, the price of a property in Oct 2008, 1 year after the peak will be approx £164,683

This will equate to a 1st year fall of 11.5%

I personally think once they get to around £150k so a 20% fall, they will steady off there before going upwards again. I cant see more than a 20-25% fall on the average home, but who knows, anything is possible.

These are only nationwides stats aswell so 1 individual lender.
Old 29 May 2008, 02:51 PM
  #34  
Devildog
Scooby Regular
 
Devildog's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Away from this place
Posts: 4,430
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Default

Originally Posted by PeteBrant

If you borrowed to the absolute hilt, on an interest only, figuring you could afford the payments at the introductory rate, and are coming to the end of that deal, then, you are a fecking idiot and quite frankly deserve everything that comes your way.

Edit for accuracy Pete
Old 29 May 2008, 02:53 PM
  #35  
Devildog
Scooby Regular
 
Devildog's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Away from this place
Posts: 4,430
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Default

And as well as the stats from only one lender, they don't apply to the whole of the UK

for example

BBC NEWS | Scotland | Scottish house prices rise again
Old 29 May 2008, 02:59 PM
  #36  
PeteBrant
Scooby Regular
 
PeteBrant's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Worthing..
Posts: 7,575
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Default

Originally Posted by Devildog
Edit for accuracy Pete


I did think that at the time.

However, on reflection there is huge pressure to own your own property at whatever cost. And this time last year, people were saying that a drop was never going to happen etc.

Whilst I think you would have been foolish to mortage yourself to the hilt on an interest only etc etc, I can almost understand why someone would do it.
Old 29 May 2008, 03:03 PM
  #37  
davegtt
Scooby Senior
 
davegtt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Next door to the WiFi connection
Posts: 16,293
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Default

Originally Posted by Mitchy260
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/May_2008.pdf

Peak of housing market Oct 2007... average home @ £186,044
Housing market at May 2008....average home @ £173,583

Showing a 6.7% slump on peak

If we extend the sequence to Oct 2008 in a linear fashion based on last 7 months stats for a true reflection, the price of a property in Oct 2008, 1 year after the peak will be approx £164,683

This will equate to a 1st year fall of 11.5%

I personally think once they get to around £150k so a 20% fall, they will steady off there before going upwards again. I cant see more than a 20-25% fall on the average home, but who knows, anything is possible.

These are only nationwides stats aswell so 1 individual lender.
Problem with the "average" house price is that its not a true reflection. a 10k drop in a 100k house is a 10% fall (obviously) where a 10% fall on a £400k house is alot more. They lower end properties are least effected by these percentage drops and dont help anyone on the FTB market and dont effect the current owners a great deal.
Old 29 May 2008, 03:08 PM
  #38  
Mitchy260
Scooby Regular
 
Mitchy260's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 1,300
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Default

Agree, i believe if we took London out of the equation the figures would not be looking so bad.

If a £950k 1 bed Fulham flat only fetches £650k then thats going to cause a huge ripple effect.

Some high end properties may fall 30/40 and even 50% in value but i think a realistic average home figure will be in the region of 20%.
Old 29 May 2008, 03:09 PM
  #39  
PeteBrant
Scooby Regular
 
PeteBrant's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Worthing..
Posts: 7,575
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Default

The quarterly report on the nationwide site if far more accurate - it does region by region comparisons. (next one due next month)

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/downloads/All_prop.xls

You can see straight away from those that the SE skews the whole average - Where othert places will be dropping very slightly if at all.
Old 29 May 2008, 03:15 PM
  #40  
rossyboy
Scooby Regular
iTrader: (8)
 
rossyboy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Flying the Flag for the GC8A
Posts: 4,194
Received 94 Likes on 58 Posts
Default

And as well as the stats from only one lender, they don't apply to the whole of the UK

for example

BBC NEWS | Scotland | Scottish house prices rise again
That information is out of date. The scottish market appears to be as bad as everywhere else since late April.

Even here in oil rich Aberdeen, prices are on the downturn. Nobody is buying anything at the moment. I should know as I'm trying to sell my flat. 2 viewers in 3 weeks. Unheard of in these parts.....
Old 29 May 2008, 03:19 PM
  #41  
Mitchy260
Scooby Regular
 
Mitchy260's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 1,300
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Default

Originally Posted by rossyboy
That information is out of date. The scottish market appears to be as bad as everywhere else since late April.

Even here in oil rich Aberdeen, prices are on the downturn. Nobody is buying anything at the moment. I should know as I'm trying to sell my flat. 2 viewers in 3 weeks. Unheard of in these parts.....
Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire have still seen very good YOY gains.

Currently showing around 13% in Aberdeen and 18% in Aberdeenshire.
Old 29 May 2008, 03:23 PM
  #42  
rossyboy
Scooby Regular
iTrader: (8)
 
rossyboy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Flying the Flag for the GC8A
Posts: 4,194
Received 94 Likes on 58 Posts
Default

Thats going to reduce quite quickly, I expect a fall in prices in the second quarter. There are a vast amount of properties for sale and its increasing daily.
Old 29 May 2008, 03:44 PM
  #43  
NACRO
BANNED
 
NACRO's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Your home is worthless.You can't afford to run your car.Your job is on the line.Schadenfreude rules.
Posts: 4,787
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Default

Originally Posted by PeteBrant
The quarterly report on the nationwide site if far more accurate - it does region by region comparisons. (next one due next month)

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/downloads/All_prop.xls

You can see straight away from those that the SE skews the whole average - Where othert places will be dropping very slightly if at all.
Ask yourself where the property madness of the past decade started.

The rest of the UK follows the SE as surely as a donkey's *** trots along after the head.
Old 29 May 2008, 03:46 PM
  #44  
john banks
Scooby Regular
 
john banks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: 32 cylinders and many cats
Posts: 18,658
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Default

In Fife, the housing association have been buying up unsold flats near to £500k family homes. The agent looking after my letting has no space in the window left for all the properties for sale. Friends selling are having little interest unless they price very keenly. ESPC properties for sale are at the highest level for ages. Scotland is not immune. Aberdeen may be different for a while although the North Sea is in decline isn't it?
Old 29 May 2008, 04:51 PM
  #45  
PeteBrant
Scooby Regular
 
PeteBrant's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Worthing..
Posts: 7,575
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Default

Originally Posted by NACRO
Ask yourself where the property madness of the past decade started.

The rest of the UK follows the SE as surely as a donkey's *** trots along after the head.
Not to the same extent.

In the crash in the early 90's the SE dropped near 30% , where at Manchester was around 10%.
(over the entire period)

There were times where the SE was dropping like a stone, and the North was rising.

You cannot say uniformly that everywhere will drop by the same amount, because due to the fluctuations in the values of properties depending on location, peoples exposure to risk changes, as does affordability.
Old 29 May 2008, 06:24 PM
  #46  
Petem95
Scooby Regular
 
Petem95's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Scoobynet
Posts: 5,387
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Default

It's like the perfect storm for a housing crash at the moment, with banks going from lending huge amounts to anyone, to even those with great credit ratings having difficutly securing much smaller multiples. Then there's rocketing inflation meaning everyone has less to spend, and BoE cant lower interest rates.

The 90's crash saw a about a 30% fall (which wipes out a 50% rise remember)

I think it's safe to say we'll see anything between a 30-50% fall this time. Already prices are falling sharply even before we've started to feel the effects of the economic slowdown (ie job losses etc)

It was always going to be a monster crash really. I have no sympathy for those BTL'ers losing their homes, but feel bad for FTB'ers with young families who bought in the last few years on 2-3 year fixes...
Old 29 May 2008, 06:39 PM
  #47  
PetesDad
BANNED
 
PetesDad's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Father of the Banned
Posts: 225
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Default

30% drop is on the cards - this year ..... next year depends upon so many more factors creeping in - like unemployment and higher interest rates!
Old 29 May 2008, 08:37 PM
  #48  
Petem95
Scooby Regular
 
Petem95's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Scoobynet
Posts: 5,387
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Default

Crash is here - official!

House prices: Welcome to the bust | Business | guardian.co.uk

Judgment Day. That's the only possible description for the news from the Nationwide Building Society that house prices in the UK fell by 2.5% in May. Any suggestion that Britain's overblown, over-hyped and over-valued property market is set fair for a gentle soft landing after the excesses of recent years has just been exploded. We've had the boom: welcome to the bust.

The raw statistics tell only part of the story but are important nonetheless. House prices have fallen for seven successive months, the longest run of declines since the Nationwide index was first published during the property crash of the early 1990s. At an annual rate, prices are now down by 4.4% - the sharpest fall since late 1992. Over the past six months, prices have dropped at annual rate of 11.4% and over the past three months at a whopping 16.1% annualised rate. Both represent more pronounced drops in selling prices than were seen in the early 1990s.

Sketching out the data in this way helps expose some of the myths that have grown up around house prices. Myth number 1 is that the problems in the US real estate market would never spread across the Atlantic. This was always a dubious proposition. Both Britain and America have suffered from property bubbles, and the key point about bubbles is that they burst. America saw its bubble burst about 12 months or so ago: Britain's has burst this spring.

Myth number 2 is that there is no possibility of a repeat of the crash of the early 1990s. The thinking here is that the boom-bust of the late 1980s and early 1990s was a one-off caused by a period of excessively low interest rates being followed by a period of 15% interest rates. Since bank rate is now one third of its level in 1990 there is no chance of the UK suffering the same sort of housing crash as it did back then, particularly since this is a small island with tough planning laws and favourable tax treatment for home owners.

This sounds a seductively plausible argument but it is flawed. Interest rates are only one of the factors that affect house prices: just as important is the ratio of earnings to prices, the share of a household's income that is taken up paying off the mortgage and the ability of first-time buyers to get a home loan so that they can clamber on the housing ladder. All three have been flashing red in the UK for some time. The earnings to prices ratio has risen to record levels; even with low nominal interest rates, servicing a mortgage has taken up a bigger share of family budgets because prices have risen so quickly, and the credit crunch means that first-time buyers have found it harder and more expensive to get a loan.

Myth number 3 is that the pain will be contained to the housing market. That, if you think back to the summer of last year, is what was said about the US economy last year and the optimism proved to be groundless. Apart from the economy's direct reliance on the property market, there is a strong correlation in the UK between house prices and consumer spending. The likelihood that the Bank of England, unlike the Federal Reserve in the US, will keep interest rates high in order to fight inflation, means that there is a very strong chance that the recession in the housing market will spread to the rest of the economy.

Finally, there's Myth number 4: that this is disastrous news. It certainly may be for those with uncertain job prospects who bought at the top of the market, and it is obviously not wonderful news for a government 20 points behind in the opinion polls. But the collapse of the housing bubble will end what has been a massive shift in resources from younger and poorer people struggling to buy a property to older and richer people who already have their own home.

It will mean less reckless lending and borrowing, and - at least until memories of the crash fade - a more stable economy. The International Monetary Fund said earlier this year that 30% of the rise in house prices in the UK could not be explained by economic fundamentals: a fall in prices of that magnitude over the next couple of years is now on the cards. A crash was inevitable and - despite the wailing and the gnashing of teeth - ultimately desirable as well
Old 29 May 2008, 08:41 PM
  #49  
rossyboy
Scooby Regular
iTrader: (8)
 
rossyboy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Flying the Flag for the GC8A
Posts: 4,194
Received 94 Likes on 58 Posts
Default

Aberdeen may be different for a while although the North Sea is in decline isn't it?
John, see my previous post, Aberdeen is no different. The market is dead at the moment. Aberdonians are notoriously "careful" with money. It was 2005-06 before it really went crazy here and now it seems "careful" aberdonians have stopped buying at the slightest hint of a price drop.

I've already knocked 5% off the fixed price, but dont expect a bite any time soon.

On the other hand, rental figures are starting to pick up. £600 pcm for a 1 bed flat in half decent area
Old 29 May 2008, 08:46 PM
  #50  
JTaylor
Scooby Regular
 
JTaylor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Home
Posts: 14,758
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Default

Originally Posted by NACRO
My hope is for an economic crisis that brings the UK/US/Europe to it's knees and ushers in a decade of austerity and hardship.
Old 29 May 2008, 09:33 PM
  #51  
GOLDMAN 555
Scooby Regular
 
GOLDMAN 555's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Home of Sky cop shows SLOUGH
Posts: 331
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Default

I'll at least we won't have to listen to people banging onabout how much their house is worth now an endless anecdotes about nothing safer than bricks and mortar etc etc

Our generation has definitely lost out the winners are our mums and dads generation who are cashing out leaving us with piles and piles of debt.

The generation below probably can't give a stuff because owning a property in the real world doesn't affect your My Space/Face Book profile which is all they seem bothered about
Related Topics
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
KAS35RSTI
Subaru
27
04 November 2021 07:12 PM
Frizzle-Dee
Essex Subaru Owners Club
13
01 December 2015 09:37 AM
Mattybr5@MB Developments
Full Cars Breaking For Spares
12
18 November 2015 07:03 AM
dpb
Non Scooby Related
14
03 October 2015 10:37 AM
Ganz1983
Subaru
5
02 October 2015 09:22 AM



Quick Reply: I've missed the housing doom threads



All times are GMT +1. The time now is 04:35 PM.