I've missed the housing doom threads
#31
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#33
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/May_2008.pdf
Peak of housing market Oct 2007... average home @ £186,044
Housing market at May 2008....average home @ £173,583
Showing a 6.7% slump on peak
If we extend the sequence to Oct 2008 in a linear fashion based on last 7 months stats for a true reflection, the price of a property in Oct 2008, 1 year after the peak will be approx £164,683
This will equate to a 1st year fall of 11.5%
I personally think once they get to around £150k so a 20% fall, they will steady off there before going upwards again. I cant see more than a 20-25% fall on the average home, but who knows, anything is possible.
These are only nationwides stats aswell so 1 individual lender.
Peak of housing market Oct 2007... average home @ £186,044
Housing market at May 2008....average home @ £173,583
Showing a 6.7% slump on peak
If we extend the sequence to Oct 2008 in a linear fashion based on last 7 months stats for a true reflection, the price of a property in Oct 2008, 1 year after the peak will be approx £164,683
This will equate to a 1st year fall of 11.5%
I personally think once they get to around £150k so a 20% fall, they will steady off there before going upwards again. I cant see more than a 20-25% fall on the average home, but who knows, anything is possible.
These are only nationwides stats aswell so 1 individual lender.
#34
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Edit for accuracy Pete
#35
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And as well as the stats from only one lender, they don't apply to the whole of the UK
for example
BBC NEWS | Scotland | Scottish house prices rise again
for example
BBC NEWS | Scotland | Scottish house prices rise again
#36
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I did think that at the time.
However, on reflection there is huge pressure to own your own property at whatever cost. And this time last year, people were saying that a drop was never going to happen etc.
Whilst I think you would have been foolish to mortage yourself to the hilt on an interest only etc etc, I can almost understand why someone would do it.
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http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/May_2008.pdf
Peak of housing market Oct 2007... average home @ £186,044
Housing market at May 2008....average home @ £173,583
Showing a 6.7% slump on peak
If we extend the sequence to Oct 2008 in a linear fashion based on last 7 months stats for a true reflection, the price of a property in Oct 2008, 1 year after the peak will be approx £164,683
This will equate to a 1st year fall of 11.5%
I personally think once they get to around £150k so a 20% fall, they will steady off there before going upwards again. I cant see more than a 20-25% fall on the average home, but who knows, anything is possible.
These are only nationwides stats aswell so 1 individual lender.
Peak of housing market Oct 2007... average home @ £186,044
Housing market at May 2008....average home @ £173,583
Showing a 6.7% slump on peak
If we extend the sequence to Oct 2008 in a linear fashion based on last 7 months stats for a true reflection, the price of a property in Oct 2008, 1 year after the peak will be approx £164,683
This will equate to a 1st year fall of 11.5%
I personally think once they get to around £150k so a 20% fall, they will steady off there before going upwards again. I cant see more than a 20-25% fall on the average home, but who knows, anything is possible.
These are only nationwides stats aswell so 1 individual lender.
#38
Agree, i believe if we took London out of the equation the figures would not be looking so bad.
If a £950k 1 bed Fulham flat only fetches £650k then thats going to cause a huge ripple effect.
Some high end properties may fall 30/40 and even 50% in value but i think a realistic average home figure will be in the region of 20%.
If a £950k 1 bed Fulham flat only fetches £650k then thats going to cause a huge ripple effect.
Some high end properties may fall 30/40 and even 50% in value but i think a realistic average home figure will be in the region of 20%.
#39
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The quarterly report on the nationwide site if far more accurate - it does region by region comparisons. (next one due next month)
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/downloads/All_prop.xls
You can see straight away from those that the SE skews the whole average - Where othert places will be dropping very slightly if at all.
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/downloads/All_prop.xls
You can see straight away from those that the SE skews the whole average - Where othert places will be dropping very slightly if at all.
#40
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And as well as the stats from only one lender, they don't apply to the whole of the UK
for example
BBC NEWS | Scotland | Scottish house prices rise again
for example
BBC NEWS | Scotland | Scottish house prices rise again
Even here in oil rich Aberdeen, prices are on the downturn. Nobody is buying anything at the moment. I should know as I'm trying to sell my flat. 2 viewers in 3 weeks. Unheard of in these parts.....
#41
That information is out of date. The scottish market appears to be as bad as everywhere else since late April.
Even here in oil rich Aberdeen, prices are on the downturn. Nobody is buying anything at the moment. I should know as I'm trying to sell my flat. 2 viewers in 3 weeks. Unheard of in these parts.....
Even here in oil rich Aberdeen, prices are on the downturn. Nobody is buying anything at the moment. I should know as I'm trying to sell my flat. 2 viewers in 3 weeks. Unheard of in these parts.....
Currently showing around 13% in Aberdeen and 18% in Aberdeenshire.
#43
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The quarterly report on the nationwide site if far more accurate - it does region by region comparisons. (next one due next month)
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/downloads/All_prop.xls
You can see straight away from those that the SE skews the whole average - Where othert places will be dropping very slightly if at all.
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/downloads/All_prop.xls
You can see straight away from those that the SE skews the whole average - Where othert places will be dropping very slightly if at all.
The rest of the UK follows the SE as surely as a donkey's *** trots along after the head.
#44
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In Fife, the housing association have been buying up unsold flats near to £500k family homes. The agent looking after my letting has no space in the window left for all the properties for sale. Friends selling are having little interest unless they price very keenly. ESPC properties for sale are at the highest level for ages. Scotland is not immune. Aberdeen may be different for a while although the North Sea is in decline isn't it?
#45
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In the crash in the early 90's the SE dropped near 30% , where at Manchester was around 10%.
(over the entire period)
There were times where the SE was dropping like a stone, and the North was rising.
You cannot say uniformly that everywhere will drop by the same amount, because due to the fluctuations in the values of properties depending on location, peoples exposure to risk changes, as does affordability.
#46
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It's like the perfect storm for a housing crash at the moment, with banks going from lending huge amounts to anyone, to even those with great credit ratings having difficutly securing much smaller multiples. Then there's rocketing inflation meaning everyone has less to spend, and BoE cant lower interest rates.
The 90's crash saw a about a 30% fall (which wipes out a 50% rise remember)
I think it's safe to say we'll see anything between a 30-50% fall this time. Already prices are falling sharply even before we've started to feel the effects of the economic slowdown (ie job losses etc)
It was always going to be a monster crash really. I have no sympathy for those BTL'ers losing their homes, but feel bad for FTB'ers with young families who bought in the last few years on 2-3 year fixes...
The 90's crash saw a about a 30% fall (which wipes out a 50% rise remember)
I think it's safe to say we'll see anything between a 30-50% fall this time. Already prices are falling sharply even before we've started to feel the effects of the economic slowdown (ie job losses etc)
It was always going to be a monster crash really. I have no sympathy for those BTL'ers losing their homes, but feel bad for FTB'ers with young families who bought in the last few years on 2-3 year fixes...
#48
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Crash is here - official!
House prices: Welcome to the bust | Business | guardian.co.uk
House prices: Welcome to the bust | Business | guardian.co.uk
Judgment Day. That's the only possible description for the news from the Nationwide Building Society that house prices in the UK fell by 2.5% in May. Any suggestion that Britain's overblown, over-hyped and over-valued property market is set fair for a gentle soft landing after the excesses of recent years has just been exploded. We've had the boom: welcome to the bust.
The raw statistics tell only part of the story but are important nonetheless. House prices have fallen for seven successive months, the longest run of declines since the Nationwide index was first published during the property crash of the early 1990s. At an annual rate, prices are now down by 4.4% - the sharpest fall since late 1992. Over the past six months, prices have dropped at annual rate of 11.4% and over the past three months at a whopping 16.1% annualised rate. Both represent more pronounced drops in selling prices than were seen in the early 1990s.
Sketching out the data in this way helps expose some of the myths that have grown up around house prices. Myth number 1 is that the problems in the US real estate market would never spread across the Atlantic. This was always a dubious proposition. Both Britain and America have suffered from property bubbles, and the key point about bubbles is that they burst. America saw its bubble burst about 12 months or so ago: Britain's has burst this spring.
Myth number 2 is that there is no possibility of a repeat of the crash of the early 1990s. The thinking here is that the boom-bust of the late 1980s and early 1990s was a one-off caused by a period of excessively low interest rates being followed by a period of 15% interest rates. Since bank rate is now one third of its level in 1990 there is no chance of the UK suffering the same sort of housing crash as it did back then, particularly since this is a small island with tough planning laws and favourable tax treatment for home owners.
This sounds a seductively plausible argument but it is flawed. Interest rates are only one of the factors that affect house prices: just as important is the ratio of earnings to prices, the share of a household's income that is taken up paying off the mortgage and the ability of first-time buyers to get a home loan so that they can clamber on the housing ladder. All three have been flashing red in the UK for some time. The earnings to prices ratio has risen to record levels; even with low nominal interest rates, servicing a mortgage has taken up a bigger share of family budgets because prices have risen so quickly, and the credit crunch means that first-time buyers have found it harder and more expensive to get a loan.
Myth number 3 is that the pain will be contained to the housing market. That, if you think back to the summer of last year, is what was said about the US economy last year and the optimism proved to be groundless. Apart from the economy's direct reliance on the property market, there is a strong correlation in the UK between house prices and consumer spending. The likelihood that the Bank of England, unlike the Federal Reserve in the US, will keep interest rates high in order to fight inflation, means that there is a very strong chance that the recession in the housing market will spread to the rest of the economy.
Finally, there's Myth number 4: that this is disastrous news. It certainly may be for those with uncertain job prospects who bought at the top of the market, and it is obviously not wonderful news for a government 20 points behind in the opinion polls. But the collapse of the housing bubble will end what has been a massive shift in resources from younger and poorer people struggling to buy a property to older and richer people who already have their own home.
It will mean less reckless lending and borrowing, and - at least until memories of the crash fade - a more stable economy. The International Monetary Fund said earlier this year that 30% of the rise in house prices in the UK could not be explained by economic fundamentals: a fall in prices of that magnitude over the next couple of years is now on the cards. A crash was inevitable and - despite the wailing and the gnashing of teeth - ultimately desirable as well
The raw statistics tell only part of the story but are important nonetheless. House prices have fallen for seven successive months, the longest run of declines since the Nationwide index was first published during the property crash of the early 1990s. At an annual rate, prices are now down by 4.4% - the sharpest fall since late 1992. Over the past six months, prices have dropped at annual rate of 11.4% and over the past three months at a whopping 16.1% annualised rate. Both represent more pronounced drops in selling prices than were seen in the early 1990s.
Sketching out the data in this way helps expose some of the myths that have grown up around house prices. Myth number 1 is that the problems in the US real estate market would never spread across the Atlantic. This was always a dubious proposition. Both Britain and America have suffered from property bubbles, and the key point about bubbles is that they burst. America saw its bubble burst about 12 months or so ago: Britain's has burst this spring.
Myth number 2 is that there is no possibility of a repeat of the crash of the early 1990s. The thinking here is that the boom-bust of the late 1980s and early 1990s was a one-off caused by a period of excessively low interest rates being followed by a period of 15% interest rates. Since bank rate is now one third of its level in 1990 there is no chance of the UK suffering the same sort of housing crash as it did back then, particularly since this is a small island with tough planning laws and favourable tax treatment for home owners.
This sounds a seductively plausible argument but it is flawed. Interest rates are only one of the factors that affect house prices: just as important is the ratio of earnings to prices, the share of a household's income that is taken up paying off the mortgage and the ability of first-time buyers to get a home loan so that they can clamber on the housing ladder. All three have been flashing red in the UK for some time. The earnings to prices ratio has risen to record levels; even with low nominal interest rates, servicing a mortgage has taken up a bigger share of family budgets because prices have risen so quickly, and the credit crunch means that first-time buyers have found it harder and more expensive to get a loan.
Myth number 3 is that the pain will be contained to the housing market. That, if you think back to the summer of last year, is what was said about the US economy last year and the optimism proved to be groundless. Apart from the economy's direct reliance on the property market, there is a strong correlation in the UK between house prices and consumer spending. The likelihood that the Bank of England, unlike the Federal Reserve in the US, will keep interest rates high in order to fight inflation, means that there is a very strong chance that the recession in the housing market will spread to the rest of the economy.
Finally, there's Myth number 4: that this is disastrous news. It certainly may be for those with uncertain job prospects who bought at the top of the market, and it is obviously not wonderful news for a government 20 points behind in the opinion polls. But the collapse of the housing bubble will end what has been a massive shift in resources from younger and poorer people struggling to buy a property to older and richer people who already have their own home.
It will mean less reckless lending and borrowing, and - at least until memories of the crash fade - a more stable economy. The International Monetary Fund said earlier this year that 30% of the rise in house prices in the UK could not be explained by economic fundamentals: a fall in prices of that magnitude over the next couple of years is now on the cards. A crash was inevitable and - despite the wailing and the gnashing of teeth - ultimately desirable as well
#49
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Aberdeen may be different for a while although the North Sea is in decline isn't it?
I've already knocked 5% off the fixed price, but dont expect a bite any time soon.
On the other hand, rental figures are starting to pick up. £600 pcm for a 1 bed flat in half decent area
#51
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I'll at least we won't have to listen to people banging onabout how much their house is worth now an endless anecdotes about nothing safer than bricks and mortar etc etc
Our generation has definitely lost out the winners are our mums and dads generation who are cashing out leaving us with piles and piles of debt.
The generation below probably can't give a stuff because owning a property in the real world doesn't affect your My Space/Face Book profile which is all they seem bothered about
Our generation has definitely lost out the winners are our mums and dads generation who are cashing out leaving us with piles and piles of debt.
The generation below probably can't give a stuff because owning a property in the real world doesn't affect your My Space/Face Book profile which is all they seem bothered about
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