That'll do me, I'll let others do the pigeon holing

 

DCI, please don't encourage AL, he is medically stupid.

I was always told not to mock the afflicted, but in his case I'll make an exception

 

At what age did you take out your mortgage?

 

So here we are then, three grown ups 'BORED' on a feckin rainy bank holiday weekend shooting the **** on scoobynet

I'm off to look out of the window instead

 

A completely irrelevant question, 25. I didn't need to take it out any earlier, my GF kept me in a lifestyle to which I have now become accustomed

 

Always and excuse isnt there

I didnt need to take a mortgage out either, instead I could have spunked all my money up the wall like the average person my age does, but I didnt

 

I know the current house prices are very poor for buyers but when is there going to be this so called crash? I'm not getting any younger and neither is the wife or the kids so I have to decide to go for it!

 

No, you are confusing the terms excuse and reason.

I was happy spunking. Perhaps if you had done some of the same it may have given you a grounding for being a person of sound mind & good life experiences....perhaps you could call this normal/regular ? ( as opposed to being a jumped up little **** that bangs on about stuff he will never own ? )

 

That's the spirit if you subscribe to the 'the times not right' you'll never to ANYTHING!

 

With me getting my mortgage out of the way at a young age, and with my business prospering, I would state in the contrary, when im your age I will have alot of things that most people will never own

 

Good point, a transit with hydraulic tipper back must give you a real boner.

Who knows....one day, even a sprinter!

 

AL's mum must have shouted him for his tea

 

You're a bad, bad man Chip

 

You know it, bro

 

Or maybe Im making preparations for having a intima...whoops I mean business dinner with your wife

 

Sorry mate but I dont use the communal village computer, I have a internet ready PC in nearly every room of my abode

 

I appear to have engaged a witless mong. Tattie bye

 

pikey talk?

 

If you have a family and can afford the repayments then its up to you when you chose to buy, and like you say you cant wait forever!

IMO prices will be tanking by the end of the year. Just because the long-predicted crash hasnt happened yet doesnt mean it wont happen - it just means it'll be even worse when it does.

Look at what the mortgage lenders etc were saying about the US market - saying it was sustainable etc, but now prices are falling faster than they ever have done in the US history and it looks like its just the beginning. Prices in Spain are also tanking, and check out the market in Ireland...

Everyone is free to make up their mind on what they think will happen to the UK market, but IMO the prices simply cannot be maintained, and will crash. Lenders are already tightening on lending, and this forces prices down to levels where people can borrow enough to buy, but these falls in turn mean speculators cash in and prices go lower etc - a vicious circle and one that always happens.

 

TBH I'm not so sure a crash will happen.

I'm about to loose the 2nd house I've tried to purchase in the last 12 months and the reason both chains have fallen apart - Not enough houses on the market. I finally manage to find a house, offers accepted and then the vender tries to find a house and cant. They try to find somewhere for 6 months and then decide not to sell.

There isnt enough houses to meet the high demand at the moment. Surely this will push prices up even more!! A block of luxury flats have just been built near me, all were too over priced. No one bought them so the council did as they are desperate. The developers were laughing. Its now full of council familys.

(I hope a crash happens, trying to get a foot on the ladder is hard and a crash will help me :-) )

 

DCI GEne Hunt, Peter and Recaro I appreciate all the input keep it coming. I am sorry to hear about your problems Recaro I hope we both find our dream homes just after a major crash then they won't cost us that much either?!!!

 

crash is coming its guaranteed, economy wise the country is booming, however cost of living is also rising. Records of people going bankrupt, records of repossesions, banks tightning belts, taxes here there and everywhere. Loads of countries around us housing economies falling apart after seemingly being strong with huge prices and so called demand. In certain parts of london the new builds just arent selling. Council is buying them as they get them cheaper and fill them up with the scum. That in turn makes them less desirable for any private purchases.

Average wage in London is 35k. Average house in London is 300k. You do the math

 

I will defo bear that in mind I still have a while to go as I have to raise a deposit of some sort...any predictions as to when. Will the prices drop sharply or will it be gradual? You're up a bit late mate!

 

Over the last 50 years houses prices have risen by an average of 8.19% per annum. It seems that there are sudden surges, as at present, then they can level off or even slump for a few years. But they have always come back although, of course, there are regional variations. The figure for house price compared with annual wage remained fairly constant at about 4 although this has risen recently (but there are now more people working in a household). So if you have to suddenly sell up during a slump period you can get caught but otherwise buying a house seems a sound investment. I guess you need to add some common sense and bear in mind new phenomena like global warming and don't buy a house on the beach My first real house (Battersea) cost £850 when it was built in 1890 and is worth around £850k now (sold it years ago )

 

Correct the house price growth for inflation and then look at how long it takes to recover the real house price if you buy at a peak. The last house price crash was actually done as much by inflation as it was by nominal price drops. To even keep up with where they are at now they need to continue to grow by inflation. Some people start to question whether high LTV, high income multiple interest only mortgates are in their best interests. Even if they don't question it the banks will start to soon IMHO. The supply problem has been quoted in other countries before crashes before - look at Tokyo for example, at one point the Japanese economy was almost overtaking the US, and the land very heavily in demand.

 

So John - are you saying renting is preferable?

 

At the moment I'm doing just that (renting) having sold six months ago. Our previous house (completely average value, 1000 sq ft) had doubled in value over the 8 years we had it which whilst modest compared with some areas is impressive for any investment.

We moved to a rented house three times larger (3000 sq ft) in a nicer setting. The rent on it is the same as an interest only mortgage would be on the original house.

Working out inflation, rental, maintenance, buildings insurance, capital gains, interest etc then unless the property we rent (which is similar to what we'd now buy) grows by at least 10%pa we are gaining by renting. In some recent years it has grown by more than 10%, but even the most enthusiastic housing bull would not project that over the coming years.

Not even mentioning that the stamp duty we've not paid out will pay the rent for over a year!

When we bought our first house in 1998 it was cheaper to buy with a mortgage than rent. Now it is the other way around. If there was the housing demand that is claimed the rents would have kept up.

It is a classic bubble where people speculate for capital gains and sacrifice a decent (rental) income. Rental yields are now typically lower than savings accounts.

Inflation across all areas is now out the bag. The world is awash with easy credit. Whilst I wouldn't have called a crash until quite recently, now I'm totally convinced.

I'm rapidly losing confidence in the future of the pound and British equities, and am betting everything against the UK residential housing market now. Germany and Japan (equities and property funds) is where about 1/4 of our next house fund is going, with 1/4 in index linked savings certificates (over 6% tax free) and the other half spread around 5.8-6.1% savings accounts.

I may be wrong, but at least I've thought about it and am not blindly following the herd. I suspect I'll make a killing. Arguably by selling my house and banking the profits I've already made a killing there. You've not made the gain until you sell.

If I was worried about the housing market leaving me behind I'd be spread betting to offset my risk by being out of it.

 

I'll take that as a Yes then

Must admit I am slightly influenced by the good feeling about owning my own home rather than living in someone else's.

d

 

You can only find "bad" news about the housing market at present;

Housing market appears to be slowing sharply-Business-Industry Sectors-Construction & Property-TimesOnline

Great little clip here from Spitting Image about the last housing bust!!! Have a think while watching this one Aaquil!

YouTube - Spitting Image - Madness sing Our House spoof