Vulcan XH558 not going to fly :(
15 August 2006, 06:07 PM
#31
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Full project financial and engineering update for those who are interested!
------------
The Engineering Status of the Project now, almost exactly a year after the work on the aircraft started is this:
Introduction
The overhaul task was initially based upon the RAF’s Major Servicing Schedule – costed by the RAF at around 15000 manhours – but enhanced by:
a. The need to create an engineering facility at Bruntingthorpe.
b. A requirement to carry out a complete structural inspection.
c. A policy of refurbishment, instead of on-condition maintenance, for many system components.
d. A more stringent approach to the conditioning of cable looms.
e. Modification of Military Flight System and Rear Spar
Measurement of Progress
The general sequence of any aircraft maintenance task remains:
· Gaining access usually by removal of components,
· Inspection of structure and system components,
· Assessment of the results;
· Where needed, rectification or replacement.
· Refit,
· Functional testing and systems integration
Each task is, of course, fully documented and controlled through a work card system. As at 10th August 06, Marshall Aerospace’s records showed that 4549 work cards had been raised; of these 1408, or 31%, were logged as fully complete.
However, it is important to realise that this is a gross understatement of progress, as many of the open cards have the manhour intensive elements completed and awaiting lower-cost tasks such as availability of spares and refit.
Unusually, a narrative gives a more accurate impression and suggests that the overhaul is about 70% complete.
Review
Structure: Before the Major started, the uncertain condition of the structure was seen as a primary technical risk for two reasons:
a. The alloys used are known to be susceptible to SCC (Stress Corrosion Cracking) and exfoliation corrosion. Visual and radiographic inspection revealed only superficial corrosion; a few bolt-hole inspections (for cracks) need completion, but the only known cracking is in a longeron end fitting bracket in the pressure cabin; this can be repaired or replaced.
b. The structural fatigue life had nearly expired at the end of RAF service; extensive preparation has taken us to the point where Mod 2222 is fully mastered and ready for embodiment. This will release enough fatigue life for the immediate and mid-term flying programmes. If necessary, there is adequate technical information for another modification extending the cleared fatigue life yet further.
Undercarriage: The undercarriage legs now fitted are to provide mobility, as the three primary legs are finishing full overhaul at the approved repair agency. Again, we had been concerned as there was a history of SCC, but they have passed scrutiny.
Hot Air Ducts: These supply very hot air from the ECUs to wing de-icing and cabin pressurisation; unusually, these ducts had also been a structural integrity issue, but ours passed inspection and await re-installation.
ECUs: The eight ECUs remain in their preservative cocoons; they are yet to be run on aircraft but we have good reason to be confident about their condition.
AAPU: An overhauled, low hour unit is ready for installation.
Fuel System: The tank bays are inspected and in good condition; the flexible fuel tanks are to be re-manufactured; the OEM is contracted. Fuel system pumps, filters, valves etc are being serviced.
Cable Looms: where protected, the cable insulation is in good order but exposed runs in undercarriage bays have suffered. Looms supplying vital systems or showing visible damage, have substantially been replaced, but that task is not yet fully complete.
Flying Controls: The nine control surfaces are at their repair agencies for reskinning and the PFCUs with their OEM for servicing.
Cabin: The inspection of the complex cable looms in the cabin is 50% complete; the individual instruments are serviceable, but the panel has yet to be re-designed to accommodate the revised (but not yet finalised) Nav fit. The O2 system is rebuilt, the AVS sub-system removed and the combined pressurisation and heating system awaits testing.
Summary
The processes of overhaul are substantially more than half complete. It is important to acknowledge that virtual completion of the inspection process has shown the aircraft to be in overall good condition, and with knowledge we have come to realise that the risk of technical shock is now very low.
Our major project focus remains the OEMs who are servicing systems and components at no charge: we need to ensure that they meet the planned component need-by dates - we have little leverage over them.
I would encourage all of you to buy the excellent DVD documentary on the Restoration Project to date, published by Primetime Video.
See: www.ptvideo.com/videos/Av...Rest1.html
The Financial Status is this:
As at the end of June 2006 we had spent £2,751,900 since February 2005, split down in the following way:
A/C Purchase £125,000
Hangar rent £278,200
VOC costs £617,200
Marshall Aerospace costs £1,336,800
Education Proj £14000
Non-HLF costs £380700
Of the £2,751,900, the Heritage Lottery Fund (HLF) has funded £2,142,600
VOC costs include everything on the engineering project that is not Marshall Aerospace. Non-HLF costs include everything that we cannot claim from the HLF, including fund-raising and marketing costs, insurance, expenses, accountants, auditors salaries of non-HLF people (including me).
At this point, before anyone asks, I would like to point out that whilst I now receive a salary from VTST via my own consulting company, I have financially sacrificed more than any other individual (except possible David Walton) on this project, having voluntarily given up a £150,000pa job as a director at Cisco in 2000 and led the project full-time for no comparable compensation for 3 and a half years.)
Future Plans
We need to reach first flight, for everyone agrees that the project's world will change when that is achieved. It is also the moment when the aircraft is no longer at risk - we will be able to reposition it, and if necessary have a breathing space before anything else happens. I cannot stress enough how important it is that we make this milestone, which is now on our plan expected in March/April next year.
However, with our current known commitments, the Trust runs out of money at the end of August, and urgently needs an injection of £250k cash before the end of the month to keep us going though September. We are making some progress towards this, but not fast enough.
- Given that the Trust is a limited company and so governed by the laws covering insolvency, the Trustees (= Directors) have had no option but to give all employees one month's notice, with the hope that something will happen to avoid shutdown. It really is down to the wire this time. I know that the Trustees are trying their best to find additional funding as I type.
- The 20-month time delay between the original HLF decision in December 2003 and the actual start of work on the aircraft in August 2005 ate up a fair amount of the funds we had raised. This delay came from all sorts of different reasons, but mainly for contractual, legal and insurance reasons. For example, ensuring that our insurers, Marshall Aerospace's insurers and those of the key critical systems OEMs were all in agreement took some time.
- We have suffered additional costs, mainly from our prime contractor Marshall Aerospace, which on their own have already swallowed all but the entire £695k contingency budget that was in the business plan agreed with the HLF in 2004. That this is happened is a matter of deep regret, because we set expectations with MA from day one that the project was in essence a fixed price one. However MA has been and is taking a strongly commercial view, albeit helping us with a line of credit.
- Lastly, despite the efforts of the Trust's fund-raising arm, we have failed so far to attract a commercial sponsor. Our business plan assumed that we would have attracted sponsorship of at least £500k by now, but so far this has failed to materialise. My own view is that we won't get a commercial sponsor until we demonstrate the aircraft flying, such is the risk-averse nature of modern commerce.
All of our donors and supporters have been absolutely great and very generous, but the Trust's fund-raising arm thinks we may exhausted the existing donor base's resources now. We need rapidly to expand our supporter base.
We also know that we need funding at an average rate of about £125k/month to reach the end of March, by which time we should have made our first flight. My current estimated remaining net cash needed by month to reach first flight are these:
October £159,000
November £234,000
December £239,000
January £150,000
February £93,000
March £81,000
As you can see, we still have challenges ahead, but it is vital that we move from month-on-month uncertainty to some assurancethat we can at least reach first flight - hence the campaign for £1million.
I am not sure that I am totally confident that we will find the rest of the money, but I am confident that if we overcome the current crisis, the momentum that it will give us will be sustainable. The press and media coverage over the past few weeks has been substantial - the people who know about us want us to succeed. We need to turn enthusiasm that into funds, which is what the team is focused on.
One of the reasons why I am confident is the current emphasis on engineering skills. There is a potentially massive problem for the UK with the lack of the young choosing engineering as a career. James Dyson is opening a Technical College to "excite the young in engineering", and I believe fervently the XH558 can make a substantial contribution to making the young think about engineering. A whole generation of youngsters have never seen the aircraft: we can provide them with an unforgettable experience that should start some of them thinking "I want to be part of that".
In passing, I would like to point out that the project has been very closely monitored by the HLF since February 2005, who have held very detailed monthly reviews of both engineering and financial status. I cannot fault the HLF's support for this project. Both at a project level and higher in their organisation, the HLF remain in total support, but due to the policies under which they are operate, apparently unlikely to provide any further financial assistance.
I therefore hope that you will feel able to make a donation or a pledge, and, just as importantly, to spread the word far and wide so that others will also donate or pledge. I remain amazed that despite all our efforts, so many are still unaware of what we are trying to do But when these people are informed, they are totally supportive.
See:
www.tvoc.co.uk/edonate.php
www.vulcan558club.com/Pledge%20form.pdf
------------
The Engineering Status of the Project now, almost exactly a year after the work on the aircraft started is this:
Introduction
The overhaul task was initially based upon the RAF’s Major Servicing Schedule – costed by the RAF at around 15000 manhours – but enhanced by:
a. The need to create an engineering facility at Bruntingthorpe.
b. A requirement to carry out a complete structural inspection.
c. A policy of refurbishment, instead of on-condition maintenance, for many system components.
d. A more stringent approach to the conditioning of cable looms.
e. Modification of Military Flight System and Rear Spar
Measurement of Progress
The general sequence of any aircraft maintenance task remains:
· Gaining access usually by removal of components,
· Inspection of structure and system components,
· Assessment of the results;
· Where needed, rectification or replacement.
· Refit,
· Functional testing and systems integration
Each task is, of course, fully documented and controlled through a work card system. As at 10th August 06, Marshall Aerospace’s records showed that 4549 work cards had been raised; of these 1408, or 31%, were logged as fully complete.
However, it is important to realise that this is a gross understatement of progress, as many of the open cards have the manhour intensive elements completed and awaiting lower-cost tasks such as availability of spares and refit.
Unusually, a narrative gives a more accurate impression and suggests that the overhaul is about 70% complete.
Review
Structure: Before the Major started, the uncertain condition of the structure was seen as a primary technical risk for two reasons:
a. The alloys used are known to be susceptible to SCC (Stress Corrosion Cracking) and exfoliation corrosion. Visual and radiographic inspection revealed only superficial corrosion; a few bolt-hole inspections (for cracks) need completion, but the only known cracking is in a longeron end fitting bracket in the pressure cabin; this can be repaired or replaced.
b. The structural fatigue life had nearly expired at the end of RAF service; extensive preparation has taken us to the point where Mod 2222 is fully mastered and ready for embodiment. This will release enough fatigue life for the immediate and mid-term flying programmes. If necessary, there is adequate technical information for another modification extending the cleared fatigue life yet further.
Undercarriage: The undercarriage legs now fitted are to provide mobility, as the three primary legs are finishing full overhaul at the approved repair agency. Again, we had been concerned as there was a history of SCC, but they have passed scrutiny.
Hot Air Ducts: These supply very hot air from the ECUs to wing de-icing and cabin pressurisation; unusually, these ducts had also been a structural integrity issue, but ours passed inspection and await re-installation.
ECUs: The eight ECUs remain in their preservative cocoons; they are yet to be run on aircraft but we have good reason to be confident about their condition.
AAPU: An overhauled, low hour unit is ready for installation.
Fuel System: The tank bays are inspected and in good condition; the flexible fuel tanks are to be re-manufactured; the OEM is contracted. Fuel system pumps, filters, valves etc are being serviced.
Cable Looms: where protected, the cable insulation is in good order but exposed runs in undercarriage bays have suffered. Looms supplying vital systems or showing visible damage, have substantially been replaced, but that task is not yet fully complete.
Flying Controls: The nine control surfaces are at their repair agencies for reskinning and the PFCUs with their OEM for servicing.
Cabin: The inspection of the complex cable looms in the cabin is 50% complete; the individual instruments are serviceable, but the panel has yet to be re-designed to accommodate the revised (but not yet finalised) Nav fit. The O2 system is rebuilt, the AVS sub-system removed and the combined pressurisation and heating system awaits testing.
Summary
The processes of overhaul are substantially more than half complete. It is important to acknowledge that virtual completion of the inspection process has shown the aircraft to be in overall good condition, and with knowledge we have come to realise that the risk of technical shock is now very low.
Our major project focus remains the OEMs who are servicing systems and components at no charge: we need to ensure that they meet the planned component need-by dates - we have little leverage over them.
I would encourage all of you to buy the excellent DVD documentary on the Restoration Project to date, published by Primetime Video.
See: www.ptvideo.com/videos/Av...Rest1.html
The Financial Status is this:
As at the end of June 2006 we had spent £2,751,900 since February 2005, split down in the following way:
A/C Purchase £125,000
Hangar rent £278,200
VOC costs £617,200
Marshall Aerospace costs £1,336,800
Education Proj £14000
Non-HLF costs £380700
Of the £2,751,900, the Heritage Lottery Fund (HLF) has funded £2,142,600
VOC costs include everything on the engineering project that is not Marshall Aerospace. Non-HLF costs include everything that we cannot claim from the HLF, including fund-raising and marketing costs, insurance, expenses, accountants, auditors salaries of non-HLF people (including me).
At this point, before anyone asks, I would like to point out that whilst I now receive a salary from VTST via my own consulting company, I have financially sacrificed more than any other individual (except possible David Walton) on this project, having voluntarily given up a £150,000pa job as a director at Cisco in 2000 and led the project full-time for no comparable compensation for 3 and a half years.)
Future Plans
We need to reach first flight, for everyone agrees that the project's world will change when that is achieved. It is also the moment when the aircraft is no longer at risk - we will be able to reposition it, and if necessary have a breathing space before anything else happens. I cannot stress enough how important it is that we make this milestone, which is now on our plan expected in March/April next year.
However, with our current known commitments, the Trust runs out of money at the end of August, and urgently needs an injection of £250k cash before the end of the month to keep us going though September. We are making some progress towards this, but not fast enough.
- Given that the Trust is a limited company and so governed by the laws covering insolvency, the Trustees (= Directors) have had no option but to give all employees one month's notice, with the hope that something will happen to avoid shutdown. It really is down to the wire this time. I know that the Trustees are trying their best to find additional funding as I type.
- The 20-month time delay between the original HLF decision in December 2003 and the actual start of work on the aircraft in August 2005 ate up a fair amount of the funds we had raised. This delay came from all sorts of different reasons, but mainly for contractual, legal and insurance reasons. For example, ensuring that our insurers, Marshall Aerospace's insurers and those of the key critical systems OEMs were all in agreement took some time.
- We have suffered additional costs, mainly from our prime contractor Marshall Aerospace, which on their own have already swallowed all but the entire £695k contingency budget that was in the business plan agreed with the HLF in 2004. That this is happened is a matter of deep regret, because we set expectations with MA from day one that the project was in essence a fixed price one. However MA has been and is taking a strongly commercial view, albeit helping us with a line of credit.
- Lastly, despite the efforts of the Trust's fund-raising arm, we have failed so far to attract a commercial sponsor. Our business plan assumed that we would have attracted sponsorship of at least £500k by now, but so far this has failed to materialise. My own view is that we won't get a commercial sponsor until we demonstrate the aircraft flying, such is the risk-averse nature of modern commerce.
All of our donors and supporters have been absolutely great and very generous, but the Trust's fund-raising arm thinks we may exhausted the existing donor base's resources now. We need rapidly to expand our supporter base.
We also know that we need funding at an average rate of about £125k/month to reach the end of March, by which time we should have made our first flight. My current estimated remaining net cash needed by month to reach first flight are these:
October £159,000
November £234,000
December £239,000
January £150,000
February £93,000
March £81,000
As you can see, we still have challenges ahead, but it is vital that we move from month-on-month uncertainty to some assurancethat we can at least reach first flight - hence the campaign for £1million.
I am not sure that I am totally confident that we will find the rest of the money, but I am confident that if we overcome the current crisis, the momentum that it will give us will be sustainable. The press and media coverage over the past few weeks has been substantial - the people who know about us want us to succeed. We need to turn enthusiasm that into funds, which is what the team is focused on.
One of the reasons why I am confident is the current emphasis on engineering skills. There is a potentially massive problem for the UK with the lack of the young choosing engineering as a career. James Dyson is opening a Technical College to "excite the young in engineering", and I believe fervently the XH558 can make a substantial contribution to making the young think about engineering. A whole generation of youngsters have never seen the aircraft: we can provide them with an unforgettable experience that should start some of them thinking "I want to be part of that".
In passing, I would like to point out that the project has been very closely monitored by the HLF since February 2005, who have held very detailed monthly reviews of both engineering and financial status. I cannot fault the HLF's support for this project. Both at a project level and higher in their organisation, the HLF remain in total support, but due to the policies under which they are operate, apparently unlikely to provide any further financial assistance.
I therefore hope that you will feel able to make a donation or a pledge, and, just as importantly, to spread the word far and wide so that others will also donate or pledge. I remain amazed that despite all our efforts, so many are still unaware of what we are trying to do But when these people are informed, they are totally supportive.
See:
www.tvoc.co.uk/edonate.php
www.vulcan558club.com/Pledge%20form.pdf
15 August 2006, 11:30 PM
#33
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Looking at the donations for specific parts of the aircraft at http://www.tvoc.co.uk/downloads/pickapiece.pdf I'm a little puzzled - is that the list of parts 'up for grabs' for donations, what if I choose a part that is already oversubscribed ? (I know it is just for fun, but it does say that once all the parts are 'sold' the list will be published).
A fantastic idea by the way.
A fantastic idea by the way.
16 August 2006, 07:03 AM
#34
Originally Posted by ricardo
- is that the list of parts 'up for grabs' for donations, what if I choose a part that is already oversubscribed ?
16 August 2006, 01:35 PM
#36
Scooby Regular
I remember seeing a Vulcan take off at either the Mildenhall or Lakenheath air shows in around 1969 (I was in the Air Cadets 
).
It got about three feet off the deck, he applied reheat, stood it on its tail and blew up about 200 yards of runway surface. Runway out of service. Oops
I was also lucky to be there by chance the day they flew the Vulcan into Duxford in around the mid 80's.
Awesome plane in flight.
On a slightly different subject, has anyone seen the English Electric Lightning that sits forlorn and rotting covered in graffiti in a yard next to the A1 near Newark? Probably my favourite plane of all time, an awesome Cold War fighter, and a great shame to see it end up like this. Seen it many times, last time coming back from Bolton on Sunday, and when I see it I always want to rescue it..........
).It got about three feet off the deck, he applied reheat, stood it on its tail and blew up about 200 yards of runway surface. Runway out of service. Oops
I was also lucky to be there by chance the day they flew the Vulcan into Duxford in around the mid 80's.
Awesome plane in flight.
On a slightly different subject, has anyone seen the English Electric Lightning that sits forlorn and rotting covered in graffiti in a yard next to the A1 near Newark? Probably my favourite plane of all time, an awesome Cold War fighter, and a great shame to see it end up like this. Seen it many times, last time coming back from Bolton on Sunday, and when I see it I always want to rescue it..........
16 August 2006, 02:06 PM
#39
Scooby Regular
If you'd like to see the Vulcan fly again, please follow this link which will allow you to send a letter to the HLF by just filling in your name and address and hitting the send button:
http://www.airsceneuk.org.uk/hangar/...h558/xh558.htm
Please spread the word.
A "sticky" Save the Vulcan thread wouldn't go a miss
http://www.airsceneuk.org.uk/hangar/...h558/xh558.htm
Please spread the word.
A "sticky" Save the Vulcan thread wouldn't go a miss
Last edited by ^Qwerty^; 16 August 2006 at 02:14 PM.
16 August 2006, 02:15 PM
#42
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16 August 2006, 02:48 PM
#44
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Originally Posted by Dave T-S
On a slightly different subject, has anyone seen the English Electric Lightning that sits forlorn and rotting covered in graffiti in a yard next to the A1 near Newark? Probably my favourite plane of all time, an awesome Cold War fighter, and a great shame to see it end up like this. Seen it many times, last time coming back from Bolton on Sunday, and when I see it I always want to rescue it..........
There's a bit of info about it here and some history here
23 August 2006, 11:11 AM
#48
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They said on the news that they need £250K to complete the job. I think that this is to reassemble the aircraft for a roll out in order to gain a sponsor. The aircraft would still need a continuing rebuild after that to get it airworthy which they said would cost getting on for another £million.
I regret to say that unless a very rich sponsor appears, and they have a week to find one, things are looking very black just now. We can only cross our fingers and hope
Les
I regret to say that unless a very rich sponsor appears, and they have a week to find one, things are looking very black just now. We can only cross our fingers and hope
Les
30 August 2006, 08:07 PM
#53
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That's a Vulcan
If anyone is around the midlands near Brunters tomorrow then get yourself down there!
Rollout of XH558 is tomorrow at Bruntingthorpe. Sir Mike Knight will talk about the current situation. At around 14.00 the Lancaster will perform a flypast.
EDIT -
*********************
NEWS RELEASE 6AM
*********************
- Just as i get to work. Hopefully will be starting the day with good news
Last edited by Nat; 30 August 2006 at 08:36 PM.
30 August 2006, 08:42 PM
#54
Former Sponsor
One of my fondest childhood memories has to be running underneath a flying Vulcan at the Leicester airshow
I was very lucky as I lived next door to the airport and every year was treated to a free display of planes from the vulcan to the red arrows even concorde came a few times.
Me and my mate would jump into the corn field at the end of the runway and when the planes passed in front of the spectators we would start running and only look up when it was on top of us! It was pure class the vulcan was so low we could see the rivets!
Could anyone tell me how low they were allowed to fly back in the 70/80s? We allways said that if we were taller we could of touched it Proper memories that bring a tear to my eye, I would love to do the same with my son so that enough is reason for me to chip in a few quid!
If you have never seen one of these fly you have missed out, trust me if they ever finish this project go see it (I'll be there with my lad)and hear for yourself just how amazing this peice of engineering really is. A huge screaming D scorching up the skies.....awsome
i'll never forget my dad saying "yes Son, just think how lucky you are it's on your side!" Bless him!
Ads
I was very lucky as I lived next door to the airport and every year was treated to a free display of planes from the vulcan to the red arrows even concorde came a few times.
Me and my mate would jump into the corn field at the end of the runway and when the planes passed in front of the spectators we would start running and only look up when it was on top of us! It was pure class the vulcan was so low we could see the rivets!
Could anyone tell me how low they were allowed to fly back in the 70/80s? We allways said that if we were taller we could of touched it
Proper memories that bring a tear to my eye, I would love to do the same with my son so that enough is reason for me to chip in a few quid! If you have never seen one of these fly you have missed out, trust me if they ever finish this project go see it (I'll be there with my lad)and hear for yourself just how amazing this peice of engineering really is. A huge screaming D scorching up the skies.....awsome
i'll never forget my dad saying "yes Son, just think how lucky you are it's on your side!"
Bless him!Ads
Last edited by specialx; 30 August 2006 at 08:44 PM.
30 August 2006, 09:55 PM
#56
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Originally Posted by specialx
A huge screaming D scorching up the skies.....awsome
) time I saw one of these fly was at an airshow in the late 80's at somewhere just off the A303. Pretty sure it wasn't Boscombe down, Middle Wallop rings a bell or is that the little grass strip 
As above, the scream it makes just stunned me. Sounds like nothing elese in the sky. It was held up on the runway because a fox or something was in the way, the anticipation grew and then it started rolling. Pretty much went vertical and I will never forget that noise! Like no other plane I have heard before or since.
Lets hope it gets back in the skies, where it belongs
30 August 2006, 10:10 PM
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Originally Posted by J4CKO
Audilover,
Hope you are impressed, its Scoobynet's adopted plane of choice, as flown by Les of this very forum !
Hope you are impressed, its Scoobynet's adopted plane of choice, as flown by Les of this very forum !
Ah I see, the website on the first page wasnt too clear about just what exactly it was and Im too lazy to navigate the site to find out.
Does this plane have any special features that others dont have? Its certainly got a wide wingspan. Was it built for any special purposes?
30 August 2006, 10:20 PM
#58
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Originally Posted by AudiLover
Ah I see, the website on the first page wasnt too clear about just what exactly it was and Im too lazy to navigate the site to find out.
Does this plane have any special features that others dont have? Its certainly got a wide wingspan. Was it built for any special purposes?
Does this plane have any special features that others dont have? Its certainly got a wide wingspan. Was it built for any special purposes?
it was the only plane that the ruskies actually feared during the cold war, the V bombers were legendary
Les can prolly fill you in on the finer points.
Mart
30 August 2006, 10:29 PM
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Originally Posted by mart360
it was the only plane that the ruskies actually feared during the cold war, the V bombers were legendary
30 August 2006, 10:40 PM
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