House prices (and 5th of November)
04 November 2003, 11:12 AM
#34
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Imlach, you're not listening to the economists are you??! 
It's highly likely, but it certainly isn't a fact. 5-4 last month doesn't make it a certainty. The BoE hate hiking just before Xmas - the last thing they want to do is kill off consumer spending at this stage. There might be a surprise in store...
It's highly likely, but it certainly isn't a fact. 5-4 last month doesn't make it a certainty. The BoE hate hiking just before Xmas - the last thing they want to do is kill off consumer spending at this stage. There might be a surprise in store...
04 November 2003, 11:15 AM
#35
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I reckon they might hold rates until January then hit us with .5. I was predicting a December rise of .25 but having read TB's comment they'll probably wait until we've all overspent again this christmas.
I dont know why the goverment doesnt just cap/freeze house prices for 6 months - got to be better than boom and bust!
I dont know why the goverment doesnt just cap/freeze house prices for 6 months - got to be better than boom and bust!
04 November 2003, 11:29 AM
#36
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I'm convinced that although we are likely to see a rise in interest rates in the short term, the BOE will be cacking themselves over slowing the little growth there is.
So how do you suppress the booming housing market whilst encouraging growth ?
Damp down housing demand by increasing moving costs & not the borrowing cost - Stamp duty will be raised considerably in the future.
All IMHO of course
D
So how do you suppress the booming housing market whilst encouraging growth ?
Damp down housing demand by increasing moving costs & not the borrowing cost - Stamp duty will be raised considerably in the future.
All IMHO of course
D
04 November 2003, 11:45 AM
#38
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You lot predicting the end of the world due to interest rates, seem to be over looking the fact that manufacturing can not afford huge rises over a short period and if manufacturing cant afford it then it wont happen, not unless the Government/BoE want to take us deep deep into recession and a sharp rise in unemployment.
Boll0cks to the analysts saying its going to jump to 7%, what a load of sh!te, hows that sustainable then? Would kill the economy stone dead
As for paper money Pete, thats cr@p as well, if my parents sell their property they bought 26 years ago they will get whats its worth now, 12x what they paid, simple! How is that paper money? If they dont buy another house with it or buy a house thats much smaller it goes in the bank, its real money Pete not paper money.
Please explain to me how you doom and gloom mongers can predict big jumps in interest rates over short periods of time and for the economy to sustain it with out a huge crash in the economy?
Yes I agree interest rates will rise, but slowly and over long periods of time if the economy can support it.
Boll0cks to the analysts saying its going to jump to 7%, what a load of sh!te, hows that sustainable then? Would kill the economy stone dead
As for paper money Pete, thats cr@p as well, if my parents sell their property they bought 26 years ago they will get whats its worth now, 12x what they paid, simple! How is that paper money? If they dont buy another house with it or buy a house thats much smaller it goes in the bank, its real money Pete not paper money.
Please explain to me how you doom and gloom mongers can predict big jumps in interest rates over short periods of time and for the economy to sustain it with out a huge crash in the economy?
Yes I agree interest rates will rise, but slowly and over long periods of time if the economy can support it.
04 November 2003, 11:53 AM
#39
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I dont think anyone has said that interest rates will rise without manufacturing being affected. Lets face it what the **** do we manufacture these days anyway - China, Tailand, Korea all manufacture what we can at a fifth of the cost.
Lets strike up a nice trade deal with the good old U S of A! You wait lets see what our economys like when we get all that Iraqi oil
Lets strike up a nice trade deal with the good old U S of A! You wait lets see what our economys like when we get all that Iraqi oil
04 November 2003, 11:57 AM
#40
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Int rates WILL rise, but it's not much of a vote winner, & therefore won't be alot, but will enough to make you think before doing a self cert mortgage at 20* the Jones' salary.
D
D
04 November 2003, 12:07 PM
#42
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It's not just the mortgage payment you have to look at. How many blokes have got partners that are for ever buying clothes on storecards and not telling them about them? How many blokes are buying car mods on credit cards and not telling the other half about them? When you add this onto the storecard loan for the £4K plasma/lcd telly. The fancy Holiday X2 every year. The new Impreza on the drive. That must have gadget and so on and so on.
Not everyone has foresight to fix the interest rates when they take these burdons on. When you consider all of these different things as well as increased NI, council tax. At some point it will become unmanagable for a lot of people. This will be when interest rates start to climb again and everyone with a variable rate on their credit will be robbing Peter to pay Paul, and when Peter is skint what then?
Not everyone has foresight to fix the interest rates when they take these burdons on. When you consider all of these different things as well as increased NI, council tax. At some point it will become unmanagable for a lot of people. This will be when interest rates start to climb again and everyone with a variable rate on their credit will be robbing Peter to pay Paul, and when Peter is skint what then?
04 November 2003, 12:12 PM
#44
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Quite, that why I've just transferred all my credit card debts onto one offering me 5.9% APR for the life of the balance!!
Could that be an idication that my credit card company (Lloyds TSB) dont see rates rising dramatically?
Could that be an idication that my credit card company (Lloyds TSB) dont see rates rising dramatically?
04 November 2003, 12:24 PM
#46
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We go into worldwide recession, and everyone is hard-up. Where did the money go? Is there not a fixed amount of cash in the world at all times? If so, who gets it when in recession?
Say Intel are about to release a new chip onto the market for Christmas, but at the same time they fear that they won't sell as many after Christmas as they had hoped. They can't increase the price of the chip, as they will likely sell less, so they need to cut costs. To make a major cut in costs will require each department to make some saving. Someone will decide it is a good idea to get rid of a few excess staff.
The first round of redundancies will make the headlines and the rest of Intel staff will start to get worried. Many of them will hold off buying that new PC on finance that they had been planning to give the kids for Christmas.
Intel will see that pre Christmas sales are crap, so will need to cut costs to stay in profit.
Another round of redundancies, more nervous staff, less PC's bought, need for more cost cutting.
The money doesn't actually go anywhere, as it never actually existed. It was only ever notional debt and notional profit. This cycle continues until some outside factor stops it. In this case, a drastic cut in interest rates may see a few people decide to take the risk and buy the new PC as they have more actual money due to lower cost of borrowing. Interest rates drop, sales start to increase, Intel now think - we need to produce more chips, hire more staff.... leads to more people having spare cash to buy new PC's... leads to more staff, leads to ever increasing cunsumer confidence and growing debt. This cycle will also continue and eventually get out of control until it is stopped by an outside influence - interst rate hike.
Taking such a small portion of the economy makes it simple to look ahead and work out what rates will do. When you start to factor in the behaviour of all producers and all consumers it gets more difficult as they will all react at differing speeds. Add in stock markets and house price crazyness and it becomes difficult to give anything other than a best guess at what rates should do, even for BoE.
I think that rates may hold until after Christmas, but the possibility of a rise is being 'talked up' to try and curb the spiralling house prices. As a mortgage advisor I can see this first hand, as suddenly in the last 5-6 weeks everyone wants a 5 year fixed deal
04 November 2003, 08:51 PM
#47
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bloody hell - that's a nice looking place in *55 acres*. could sell this place in *walthamstow*, move there and have about 130k jingling in my pocket.
pity i can't move my business to vermont...
pity i can't move my business to vermont...
06 November 2003, 04:09 PM
#50
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**** **** ****
Can't believe this it has happend again......
This time no viewing till this monday and peeps already put offers in before they view it internally...
Already over its flippen guild price
Steve
PS totally p@ssed off with house prices , this is on top of the .25% rate rise ... Lets hope Rate goes to 10%
steve
Can't believe this it has happend again......
This time no viewing till this monday and peeps already put offers in before they view it internally...
Already over its flippen guild price
Steve
PS totally p@ssed off with house prices , this is on top of the .25% rate rise ... Lets hope Rate goes to 10%
steve
06 November 2003, 04:34 PM
#51
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my 82k morgage I can get it down to about 400nicker for 3 years and then onto the variable for 2years but still tied into the fixed term
06 November 2003, 04:40 PM
#54
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crash all they like, Im happy to know that in Grantham they wont be going down inflation has only contributed tot he rise in house prices slightly, its all you londoners moving up here for cheap living thats pushed our prices up sorted
inflation has only contributed tot he rise in house prices slightly, its all you londoners moving up here for cheap living thats pushed our prices up sorted
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