2010 to be hottest ever, probably, says Met Office.
 

BBC News - Global average temperature may hit record level in 2010

This from the same people that brought you the BBQ summer this year. :cuckoo:

In a stunning piece of analysis a spokesman said;

"A record warm year in 2010 is not a certainty, especially if the current El Nino was to unexpectedly decline rapidly near the start of 2010, or if there was a large volcanic eruption.

So you don't really know then?

:brickwall

lol, every year.....without fail for at least the last 5. Just as this winter was 'supposed' to be the coldest ever....like last year....and the year before that!

BBC NEWS | UK | 'Hot and dry' UK summer forecast
"Chief meteorologist at the Met Office, Ewen McCallum, said a repeat of the wet summers of 2007 and 2008 is unlikely."

Climate Research News Met Office to Issue Revised Summer Forecast
"The real problem for the Met Office is that this is the third summer in a row where its forecast has failed."

Not a exactly a good track record for the MetOffice.

They can't even get the forecast for the next day right most of the time.

Just had a look at this:

BBC iPlayer - Hot Planet

As far as all government agancies are concerned MMGW is a done deal. It is now presented as *fact* conveniently ignoring or discrediting all evidence to the contrary.

This is the biggest stich-up in history.

I'm watching that now.

Lot's of hypothesis and speculation presented as fact.

sorry but the word probably failed it for me :)

Here's the real forecast:


They are all feckless twunts :D

That'll be the impartial Met Office who are spending our taxes begging scientists to support the shamed experts in the CRU???

Sack the lot of 'em, and bring back seaweed - faaaar more accurate ;)

mb

Whatever happened to seaweed? I blame global warming. :thumb:

:D

fiction
 

From the BBC story:

The Met Office, in collaboration with the University of East Anglia, maintains one of the three global temperature records that is used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

:lol1: In other words its a made up story to "hide the decline"

The hotter the better IMHO, less need to holiday abroad ...

TX.

Edit - + it's impossible to predict the weather that far ahead, it's a chaotic system FFS.

It need not be complicated:

http://boldt.us/8606-2/weather_stone.jpg

But, but, but...what about the models? :thumb:

:D

Who needs computer models, peer reviewed papers and government funded studies when you have Gary's weather forecasting stone. It's genius!!

Yes another scorcher like this year :rolleyes: now if they said it will be the wettest on record then they may be right :lol1:

Tony:)

I keep a very close eye on global conditions for various reasons. This year has been very quiet in the mid atlantic. The pacific is seeing El Nino right now, and this has been in action since September. Its quite a stron El Nino at the moment.

All the indications at the moment are that we will have a very warm and dry spring - March and April could well be very nice. Summer is a bit harder to get right, but it could well be very warm and dry also.

The last "good" summer we had was 2007 and we saw similar Sep - Dec data that we have just had... so its looking good - or bad - depending on your view point!!!!
But as we have seen we can also get some fairly stange things going on too - floods etc.
The next 8 weeks will make or break our weather for next spring / summer.

"... Forecasters predict that the annual figure for 2010 will be 14.58C (58.24F), 0.58C (1.04F) above the long-term average of 14.0C (57.2F) ..."

Sorry. But that temperature is the biggest load of b*llux I've ever seen. They never get the temperature right to the nearest deg for the next day let alone an average for next summer.

I've posted this link before ... Data @ NASA GISS: GISTEMP -- Elusive Absolute Surface Air Temperature

Here's the text just so you don't have to do any work to read it .... :D

You'll see that there is no agreed way, in fact, there is no way, to determine the temperature. You'll also note the author - "Responsible NASA Official: James E. Hansen". He of global cooling back in the 70's and now AGW ...

GISS Surface Temperature Analysis
The Elusive Absolute Surface Air Temperature (SAT)

Q. What exactly do we mean by SAT ?
A. I doubt that there is a general agreement how to answer this question. Even at the same location, the temperature near the ground may be very different from the temperature 5 ft above the ground and different again from 10 ft or 50 ft above the ground. Particularly in the presence of vegetation (say in a rain forest), the temperature above the vegetation may be very different from the temperature below the top of the vegetation. A reasonable suggestion might be to use the average temperature of the first 50 ft of air either above ground or above the top of the vegetation. To measure SAT we have to agree on what it is and, as far as I know, no such standard has been suggested or generally adopted. Even if the 50 ft standard were adopted, I cannot imagine that a weather station would build a 50 ft stack of thermometers to be able to find the true SAT at its location.

Q. What do we mean by daily mean SAT ?
A. Again, there is no universally accepted correct answer. Should we note the temperature every 6 hours and report the mean, should we do it every 2 hours, hourly, have a machine record it every second, or simply take the average of the highest and lowest temperature of the day ? On some days the various methods may lead to drastically different results.

Q. What SAT do the local media report ?
A. The media report the reading of 1 particular thermometer of a nearby weather station. This temperature may be very different from the true SAT even at that location and has certainly nothing to do with the true regional SAT. To measure the true regional SAT, we would have to use many 50 ft stacks of thermometers distributed evenly over the whole region, an obvious practical impossibility.

Q. If the reported SATs are not the true SATs, why are they still useful ?
A. The reported temperature is truly meaningful only to a person who happens to visit the weather station at the precise moment when the reported temperature is measured, in other words, to nobody. However, in addition to the SAT the reports usually also mention whether the current temperature is unusually high or unusually low, how much it differs from the normal temperature, and that information (the anomaly) is meaningful for the whole region. Also, if we hear a temperature (say 70F), we instinctively translate it into hot or cold, but our translation key depends on the season and region, the same temperature may be 'hot' in winter and 'cold' in July, since by 'hot' we always mean 'hotter than normal', i.e. we all translate absolute temperatures automatically into anomalies whether we are aware of it or not.

Q. If SATs cannot be measured, how are SAT maps created ?
A. This can only be done with the help of computer models, the same models that are used to create the daily weather forecasts. We may start out the model with the few observed data that are available and fill in the rest with guesses (also called extrapolations) and then let the model run long enough so that the initial guesses no longer matter, but not too long in order to avoid that the inaccuracies of the model become relevant. This may be done starting from conditions from many years, so that the average (called a 'climatology') hopefully represents a typical map for the particular month or day of the year.

Q. What do I do if I need absolute SATs, not anomalies ?
A. In 99.9% of the cases you'll find that anomalies are exactly what you need, not absolute temperatures. In the remaining cases, you have to pick one of the available climatologies and add the anomalies (with respect to the proper base period) to it. For the global mean, the most trusted models produce a value of roughly 14 Celsius, i.e. 57.2 F, but it may easily be anywhere between 56 and 58 F and regionally, let alone locally, the situation is even worse.


Dave

As long as we get force 5 sw three days a week :thumb:


El nino is due to back down next year tho :( - have i got that right ?

They say "This year will be the hottest summer on record" every year.......one year they will have to be right. :D

True, It's a bit funny when they can't even predict an accurate forecast for this time tomorrow let alone next year

Ohh the irony of it all..................

Good stuff. It was meant to be hot this year but wasn't up to much. Wish this global warming would happen faster!

Excellent :D

I have just started watching this, and I agree with you. It's propaganda and fear-mongering. In just the first ten minutes they have gone on about it being 'fact' and used the term 'no doubt about it' etc.

It's like a religion and it's scary.

Of course it will, in the UK, but in the US they are experiencing the coldest winter on record. Also, in Victoria, Australlia, "summer snow", sorry I don't know where, but in New South Wales, Katoomba last night was at -2c. Summer???

I watched the BBC thing and have to say I cringed from start to finish. Way too emotive, too many apocalyptic images and far too much certainty for my taste.

Plus the woman co-presenter was seriously annoying

What sort of wedge du reckon David accepted in order to secumb :Suspiciou :)

Can't understand why unusually cold spells are put down to GBW!

Les

Ah, they don't call it that any more Les, it's called "Climate Change" now, and ANYTHING can be attributed to it.

Propaganda

its global warmimg when theyve spotted the temperature its x tenths of a degree warmer than 1984 , and climate change when anything nasty happens :)