The future of China?
 

Rather openended question, I just keep hearing more and more about its development/population/pollution problems etc.

Just wondering what some of the predictions are for the country, like when it will be the most powerful etc.

I would say there is a pretty strong argument to suggest they are already the equal of the USA. In economic terms Americans obviously have a higher standard of living but a huge cheap workforce means that US jobs are already being lost to China/India etc. So they are a cheap source but as the country become more wealthy they are also a major consumer just like the US

In military terms I even believe that China might already have the edge. In conventional warfare they have a huge standing army pretty well equiped and I guess due to their severe political regime would tolerate troop losses much more easily than the US.

They are developing very rapidly at the moment, and have massive resources, not just in terms of population but also mineral resources.

US must have spent a lot of time working on projections for their development I would imagine, and no doubt they wont like the ideal of a rival superpower. Cold War 2 here we come....

...and even more so a "rival superpower" that produces many of the consumer goods consumed by the Americans!!!

China will not need to invade the US - just stop providing them with trainers, small electrical goods, clothes, larger electrical goods, cheap MaccyDees give-aways, fireworks etc. I reckon that about a week should bring them to their knees :eek:

mb

This is happening already - China have stopped pinning their currency to the level of the dollar (so its now increasing in value), and also the dollar is falling to record lows as the US struggles with massive government debts - so made in China stuff must be getting much more expensive already!

China is far more westernised than you would realise. Yes they may still be a communist state but the big cities (ones open to the outside world for international travel) are becoming very much more based on the West. I also believe trade relations are probably at their best they have ever been. China wont want to be in a cold war situation any more than America would. Both benefit from good commercial relations and I think China will exploit more and more the huge commercial potential it has within itself. They have huge military strength with the worlds largest air force and huge numbers of ground troops but they are also massively under funded. They are in no position to threaten anyone else. China are also very handy for the US to help keep North Korea in check. China are used as a go between, China don't want to lose the good relations with the US for the commercial benefits and that means putting more pressure on North Korea than they used to, something which North Korea can't ignore as without China as an ally they would suffer massively.

I can not see China doing anything else but increasing its Westernisation and exploiting its massive commercial potential with the help of the US and other major trade partners and agreements as it needs the trade income to stay financially alive.

x years China top dog and bye bye USA. Only question what is x??

10?

China is a problem and an opportunity, ditto India. Two huge nations, both over 1 billion population but earning less than $3,000UDS per head pa.

They are directly responsible for the increasing cost of steel today, and will soon be gobbling up masses of other consumables as their wealth rises. So there's plenty of opportunity to be had.

Major problems will be political - the rapid speed of change, inequality between new rich and old poor, inequality between east and west, and economic competition between India and China.

These nations (plus Brazil/South America) will be the major economic drivers over the next few decades. (Best grab ourselves some oil quick, then ;) )

A glance at the map shows that Asia in general seems to have rather more than its fair share of political instability and terrorists. Most of whom don't like the USA and its allies, so no panic there, then :eek: Sheeeeeeet! :eek:

Richard.

Yes relations are pretty good now, but a major source of aggro could be Taiwan which the Chinese have made no secret they want to have and Bush has already made a speech saying "the US will do whatever it takes to help Taiwan defend itself"


I don't think China are likely to be the agressors towards any western country but might end up in an indirect conflict triggered through support for Taiwan.

When you next buy something, look to see where it was made. Many of our consumer goods are made in China and the quality is up with the best. They are not afraid to develop infrastructure and the population is hungry for education, knowing that leads to their own improvement.
Yonks ago, in grammar school, our Latin master suggested to us that civilisation (economic dominance) moved in an east to west direction.I think we are just seeing the truth of that now.
This country and the EU with its' culture of regulation and control won't know what's happened until it's too late.

I think that China is arguably a super-power already. The USA and us for that matter are in a real state - look at the US deficit - absolutely huge and Bush wont fix it.

As has already been pointed out, cheap labour and a big manufacturing base also makes China hugely attractive for businesses - would you pay lazy UK workers 100's% more than a Chinese work force? Look at what has happened to Peugeot and Jaguar in Coventry - the workers at Ryton tried it on with management and it backfired big time.

I also think things will get 'interesting' - the US must be scared of China's growth and resources...

It's very interesting that we have this thread because I believe the majority in this country don't realise what is happening in China and the Far East/Pacific Rim. They are just happy with cheaper consumer goods. I'm sure though that our "leaders" are aware but haven't a clue what to do. Which is why the PM keeps waffling on about building the "knowledge economy". Thing is the Chinese and Indians are just as capable of that and at less cost.

my dads view.

China is a so called "communist" country but bollox is it. its run the same way as any westen country. the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

The gas, trains etc are being sold off slowly but the gov still holds the golden share

You seem to have an agenda, just curious as to what it is???

Similar sentiment here, but no answers from you

80's - Russia and Eastern Block countries
90's - Middle East
00's - Far East (China & India)
10's - Australia and New Zealand???
20's - US???

I predict England will be great again in 2030!

So I guess the question I'm asking is what is your concern about China? Is it any different to the consumption of world resources such as the States, Europe, developing countries in Africa, etc?

We are all destroying the planet, just at different rates! :rolleyes:

China's GDP is about to overtake UK/France for 4th place imminently. So they have a big economy growing at fantastic rates still, somewhere in the region 8 - 10% for this year. They have some tremendous assets but also some big problems.

Assets:
- A huge labour force which is paid peanuts. There seems to be an almost never ending supply of poor Chinese from the countryside who want to move to the cities. This underpins the whole Chinese economic miracle.
- Lack of competition from outside. The Chinese government have encouraged investment from outside but has placed strict rules on what is and is not permitted. Ownership is one of the key issues. Big car manufacturers have set up manufacturing facilities in China but always in partnership with domestic car companies.
- Resources. A mixed bag this. They have huge coal reserves but it cannot meet their future energy demands alone. They are not oil rich and depend on importing increasingly large quantities of oil. They have now overtaken Japan to be the world's second largest oil importer. Japan has the world's second largest economy and has no oil so that's quite staggering in itself.

Problems:
- Energy. They cannot meet their energy requirements now. Many parts of China have daily, scheduled electricity cuts. This is even hitting their growth. Car usage has rocketed and it's projected to continue. This has caused China to import massively more oil than previously. With world oil production just about at maximum this means the end of cheaply available oil and petrol. It's a structural change and it will only go higher in future as demand in CHina and elsewhere increases.
- Pollution. They environmental standards are not the same as western countries. They rely on coal for generating most of their electricity and it's not clean.
- Social pressures. Inside China there is a perception of widespread corruption and the wealth created not being equally distributed. There have been a number of public demonstrations in different parts of China recently, though they have not been widely reported inside the country. The social pressures are maybe the biggest problem China now faces, if people lose faith in the party then the social order will change and who knows what would happen.
- Food. Because of the increasing urbanization of China and the migration of people from countryside to cities, China is no longer self sufficient in rice. Rice imports are more expensive than domestically grown and this is causing problems for China's poor.


The US are already sounding much less firm in it's support of Taiwan. Would they really defend Taiwan from a military attack by China? There's serious doubt about it at the moment. The chances are China's economy will become the world's largest in the next 10 years and the US don't want to annoy them.

To pick up on a couple of previously made points:

Bush doesn't just seem uninterested in reducing the deficit, he created it in the first place! He has turned a surplus into a trillion dollar deficit in just 4 years. Quite how that managed not to be an election issue is beyond me.

As for Chinese relations with Taiwan, I was under the impression that relations were thawing, (very) slowly, but surely.

I also think that the way that China have left Hong Kong relatively untouched is an encouraging sign. Capitalism obviously isn't that abhorrent to them.

Ummmm not really. Taiwan is in a weird no-mans-land, not recognised as a separate nation by the UN or hardly any countries but not part of China either, except in Beijing's eyes. China was conducting naval exercises just outside Taiwanese waters when they held their national elections a few months back, a clear case of sabre rattling. They have made serious warnings to Taiwan not to declare independence. If they declare independence then China have said they'll take Taiwan by force and end it's "renegade" status.

Some Taiwanese politicians want to acquire not just defensive weapons such as Patrioit 3 missiles, but also offensive long range missiles to deter an attack by China. Something capable or reaching the dams of the 3 gorges project I think was mentioned.

The biggest friend that taiwan has got is the US, they sent a huge naval force to conduct exercises off Taiwan before the first ever democratic elections in Taiwan in a show of force to China. But with China getting ever stronger, economically, technologically and militarily, there must be a question mark whether the US would have the stomach for a confrontation at a time when they already have lots of other things on their plate.

Sorry, I must have missed the question the first time.

No such agenda, just I have a boss who is obsessed with the economic state of the country and loves to tell me about how it is driving the price of steel through the roof and how bad pollution will be when its huge population starts getting close to the development of the West.

Just wondering what the future is going to be like given that I have quite a number of years to live.

Step 1: Fuelled by the riches derived from being the only competetive manufacturing bases left on the planet, the populations of India and China stop taking their bicycles to work (as they currently do) and take to buying and running cars.

Step 2: Two billion more people using oil at the rate Westerners do means supply can't keep up with demand (all of today's plants are already pumping at maximum capacity), the 50 years or so we thought we had left in the ground plummets to 15, and the price of petrol / oil and any other fossil fuel rockets by almost an order of magnitude.

Step 3: Americans riot in the streets over gas prices, countries reliant on oil based economies (ie the West) enter a massive depression and military tensions escalate.

Step 4: Cars returning less than 50mpg become almost worthless.

Step 5: The canals of Britain become clogged with abandoned, unwanted Scoobies, while at the same time 1980s Citroen AX diesels are dredged from the same place for restoration to active duty.

Not now you're being monitored by the Chinese Secret Service, you haven't.

Surely you mean the lakes? ;)

Just an observation for you, as I am in regular contact with business in China.

A Chinese colleague apologised for his English (which is very good) and asked if I had understood him correctly, adding that his French was much better.

How many people reading this could conduct a serious business meeting in a foreign tongue? Get your head around that and you will begin to realise what a force to be reckoned with these people are.

Big respect.

Richard.

TBH that's not unique to the Chinese it applies to just about any business person whose first language is not English. English speakers are just lazy.

Olly, you're right, of course (or I'd be out of a job).

But it is relatively easy for Europeans to speak English/French/Italian/Spanish etc with Latin roots.

But how many of these nationalities can speak or write Chinese or, say, Arabic? They can understand us, but we can't understand them. That's a big advantage.

Richard.

It largely comes down to "need". There is a real benefit for Eastern and Arabian people to learn to speak a European language (in particular English). There is less importance seen for a European to learn theirs, although of course it does happen. Japanese courses seem to be coming more popular these days, no doubt due to the economic importance of Japan in the world added with their culture such that if you can speak their language it is one heck of an advantage over another european competitor that can't. People learning to speak Chinese will become more popular as China becomes more economically dominant and people see more business opportunities to exploit over there. The Arabic countries don't seem to have much going for them beyond oil as far a most europeans are concerned and again many arabs also speak english, so few make the effort.

I probably could in Catonese!!! ;) ;)

That said there is a difference between Madarin and Catonese!!

And not not being able to read or write it, we're still back to English!!

Anyway I work for an American company, so the business language is still English!! ;)

On the 1st point. It is exactly the opposite. It's getting frostier than ever. Short of bombing Taipei, Beijing can do nothing abt Chen Shui Bien. Taiwan is getting very very divided socially, & the Ah Bien's govt are doing everything they can to force feed ppl with horror stories abt reunification. The less than satisfactory state of affairs in Hong Kong sort of 'confirms' his argument, that one country two systems does not work. The farcial election in Taiwan earlier also affected Hong Kong, which I will go into later. Recently, the Taiwanese government proposed amending school curriculum, so that the great Dr.Sun Yat Sen will be removed from the history books as the father of Taiwan ROC. This of course touches the nerves of Beijing, as Dr.Sun, even tho he is the father of KMT, is given as high a regard in mainland China as Mao Tse Tung. His removal from history signals severance of link between China & 'Republic of China'.
Chen's government is adept to playing games & provoking Beijing to do some sabre rattling. The recent APEC meeting in Chile is a very good example, where Taiwan played a promo film, & in it are the words 'nation', implying Taiwan as an independant nation. It provoked a huge protest from Beijing. There are other things too, such as the proposal to rewrite the Taiwanese constitution in 2006.
Beijing does not take this matter lightly, as Hu Jin Tao repeatedly emphasised territorial integrity in his tour of Latin America (coincides with APEC meeting in Chile). I think America is in a very envious position with regards to cross-strait relations. On the one hand, they support Beijing on the 'one China' policy, & on the other they're selling arms to Taiwan!!

On the 2nd point abt Hong Kong. Frankly, the political climate here is not very good. Beijing ruled out universal sufferage for 2007/08 in a very heavy handed manner, which I'm sure has something to do with the chaotic elections in Taiwan. This, together with Mr. Tung's inept ministers, provided ample ammunition for Chen to make fun of the 'one country two systems' formula. At least what's untouched in HK is the rule of law & freedom of speech & expression.

China will only become stronger, but there are 3 risks: Taiwan, the environment, & social unrest. There were small scale clashes a few weeks ago in one of the provinces due to racial tension, & probably also the wealth gap.