50:50 shot for the value of everything you own?
 

The following is a quote from Doyle Brunson's Superstyem: A course in Power Poker where he talks about taking favourable odds:

For some background Doyle is regarded as one of the best poker players of all times and his book as the poker bible. He has made a massive fortune at the game and is mega-well respected.

The purpose of this poll therefore is to gauge the human response to risk vs reward out of pure curiosity :D

So simple vote yes or no to the following question: If god/whoever offered you 10-1 odds on the value of EVERYTHING you own (house, car, clothes, the lot) on a coin flip (50:50) - would you take it?

That is to say if you are valued at £250,000 then 50% of the time you'd be homeless, hungry and cold and the other 50% you'd be worth £2.5M

nope. im actually pretty risk averse when it comes to losing everything.

i would happily do it on 10% of everything i own tho.

and im assuming u voted "no" too saxo (since theres 2xno and 0xyes so far), which surprises me?

Yes of course. Wouldn't take much to get back on your feet again.

An upside 10x bigger than the downside is a great bet.

No way would I agree to a bet like that. If you lost can you imagine just how gutted you would feel when you woke up every day for the rest of your life.

It would be pointless for me. 10 times feck all is still feck all... :D

I might take it at 50% of everything for ten times stake but not everything; what would you do Kenny?

Simon

It's got to be all or nothing - that's the point

Too much of a risk when I consider my wife and kids etc.
If I was single I'd probably give it a go but if I was single I'd probably have more money so there'd be no need to! :D

Jason

I wouldn't go for it.

It's bad enough having to tell the missus that I put the child minder's wages on Jermain Defoe First Goal, Final Score 2-1 at the Spurs game, let alone that I lost the house, both the cars and everything else *on the toss of a coin*. :eek:

I've been struggling with this one for months and still don't know. I too have - as other posters have - tried to consider the, 'well I'd do it for 50% of my value' option but that defeats the purpose of the exercise.

It truely is a difficult one I guess. I suppose I might lean towards doing it because at this time I'm only responsible to me and would only have to worry about building my own life back up if I lost. People with a family to support are in a completely different situation. I haven't voted btw :)

I guess I'd do it if I could have 5 games, though. :)

Join the club :D

Jason consider how minted he'd be if he was getting 10-1 though :D

Youre right of course, it does defeat the object. But as most people except for the hopeless/reckless gamblers, will vote no, I thought Id try to help by deciding what percentage I could live with.

Simon

I suppose if you were really sneaky you could take half of what you own to labrokes and make the conventional 2-1 bet on the otherside thereby covering your loss ;) I suspect if god was laying you the 10-1 odds though he'd have the coin land perfectly on its edge ;):D

Lol.

i'd have a go for 10 to 1. like someone else said, you can soon start again.

BB:)

I'd do it now, i'm 25. I wouldnt do it if i was 40 and married/kids etc though....

I wouldn't do it. Winning 10 times what I have now might be one heck of a short-term buzz, but after buying the new house, car, stereo, whatever... I'd still have the same friends, drink the same beer and probably work in the same job, just to keep me from getting bored. I doubt I'd spend a greater proportion of my time happy, because I'm quite comfortable right now. (I've worked hard to get this way).

Losing everything, meanwhile, would - I'm quite sure - make me much less happy. The negative effect would be far greater than the positive effect of having shedloads of cash. Money may not be able to buy happiness, but the lack of it can sure as heck bring unhappiness.

I wonder who would choose differently if the odds weren't 50:50 on making 10x what you have today, but 90:10 in favour of doubling what you have today vs losing it all. I think I'd still say 'no'. (Maybe if it were 99:1, though... or both a close friend and I both got to play the same bet...)

Would i do it .... Na.....

Ive just imagined going for it on the flip of a coin..... And lost the lot !
3 times over everytime it came up heads.... I bet tails. So would i do it ??


NO WAY !

I would do it, without a hesitation. 50:50 and 10:1 odds, no problem. Its not like you need to give up your job either way so it can all come round again.

I think I go for it ( would need to check with the missus first ;) ), when I weigh it up, I don't actually "own" that much, for the puropses of this I worked on what they are *worth* as opposed to new:

clothes - £500 ?
electrical - tellys n' gadgets, computers etc - £ 1500?
toys/tools - £1500
other crap round the house , fridges/furniture etc - £ 2500?
half of the difference between the vaule of the house and the mortgage - £ 40k
Savings-8k

so, 56k, or just over half a Million, I'd do it if I had a side bet, say half the stake for half the winnings.

out of interest, has this been done, and what was the outcome?

Has it been done? I very much doubt it since the bet would be loaded in your favour. Get together with a few mates and agree to split the winnings - on average you'd all end up 5 times better off :)

Anyone wants to offer the same to me then I'm up for it. I believe the casinos in the US didn't even want to take the red/black bet that the guy on Sky 1 had where he liquidated everything and put $150K on a single roll of the roulette wheel. At 10:1 its a no brainer bet.

That is a VERY interesting point and possibly worthy of a seperate poll to compare the results. This is effectively the EXACT same bet except this time the reward is less (only a double up) but the risk is also dramatically less. If the scoobynet population were happier with the 90:10 ratio then its a strong indication that its the 'risk' of going bust that is push factor as opposed to the massive reward being the pull factor.

This is probably consistent with human nature were we'd rather hoard and have comfort than take risks in favour of greater reward but little in the way of reserve.