So Brexit seems to be a good thing then.
30 November 2018, 01:03 AM
#3811
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This is what I've been saying all along and definitely not what the Brexiteers were looking for!
Economic migration is driven by economic demand. If they are not coming from the EU, then they have to come from somewhere else in order to meet economic demand for workforce that cannot be filled by the local population. Given we always had control of non-EU migration, and non-EU migrants were still arriving because the economic demand for workers was higher than the EU could supply, it was always clear that any fall in EU numbers would be met with an increase in non-EU numbers, often from cultures and religions that are somewhat more incompatible with our own compared to the largely similar EU migrants.
Non-Economic migration is a different factor, primarily driven by people fleeing war or oppressive regimes, however the number of refugees and asylum seekers is relative low compared to the economic migrants (just over 26K asylum seekers last year).
The simple fact is, even with full control of immigration, the government is unlikely to reduce figures without damaging the economy. Its a balance between a desire to restrict immigration and supporting the free market economy and any Conservative government will always favour the free market economy! If you really want to limit immigration, then Corbyns Labour will probably be more effective!
Another interesting point this week is the two reports released yesterday from the Government and the Bank of England which pretty much independently came to the same conclusions. Any form of exiting the EU is worse than remaining in the EU and the harder the exit the higher the price! So now we can be sure that No Deal is in fact worse than a Bad Deal! Who'd have thought?
Economic migration is driven by economic demand. If they are not coming from the EU, then they have to come from somewhere else in order to meet economic demand for workforce that cannot be filled by the local population. Given we always had control of non-EU migration, and non-EU migrants were still arriving because the economic demand for workers was higher than the EU could supply, it was always clear that any fall in EU numbers would be met with an increase in non-EU numbers, often from cultures and religions that are somewhat more incompatible with our own compared to the largely similar EU migrants.
Non-Economic migration is a different factor, primarily driven by people fleeing war or oppressive regimes, however the number of refugees and asylum seekers is relative low compared to the economic migrants (just over 26K asylum seekers last year).
The simple fact is, even with full control of immigration, the government is unlikely to reduce figures without damaging the economy. Its a balance between a desire to restrict immigration and supporting the free market economy and any Conservative government will always favour the free market economy! If you really want to limit immigration, then Corbyns Labour will probably be more effective!
Another interesting point this week is the two reports released yesterday from the Government and the Bank of England which pretty much independently came to the same conclusions. Any form of exiting the EU is worse than remaining in the EU and the harder the exit the higher the price! So now we can be sure that No Deal is in fact worse than a Bad Deal! Who'd have thought?
I think the deal on offer is in the long run very bad for this country. It effectively traps us as some sort of zombie state shackled to the EU, unable to leave and enable to move forwards. It's pretty clear that the EU are going to use the 'back stop' as leverage in any future negotiations.
Therefore some sort of managed no deal, as painful as it may be in the short term, it probably better in the long run.
The irony of all of this will be that it's the remainers that will make this work, the Brexiters will disappear back under their rocks as soon as things get tough.
Last edited by Martin2005; 30 November 2018 at 01:16 AM.
30 November 2018, 09:53 AM
#3813
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I think if you accept the fact that we're leaving, then you're left with a stark choice between the deal on offer and a no deal.
I think the deal on offer is in the long run very bad for this country. It effectively traps us as some sort of zombie state shackled to the EU, unable to leave and enable to move forwards. It's pretty clear that the EU are going to use the 'back stop' as leverage in any future negotiations.
Therefore some sort of managed no deal, as painful as it may be in the short term, it probably better in the long run.
The irony of all of this will be that it's the remainers that will make this work, the Brexiters will disappear back under their rocks as soon as things get tough.
I think the deal on offer is in the long run very bad for this country. It effectively traps us as some sort of zombie state shackled to the EU, unable to leave and enable to move forwards. It's pretty clear that the EU are going to use the 'back stop' as leverage in any future negotiations.
Therefore some sort of managed no deal, as painful as it may be in the short term, it probably better in the long run.
The irony of all of this will be that it's the remainers that will make this work, the Brexiters will disappear back under their rocks as soon as things get tough.
30 November 2018, 10:17 AM
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Ok you might need to get a work permit or a visa but big deal, just become a German and have duel citizenship.
30 November 2018, 10:44 AM
#3815
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The point is less for people like us who are working and have been here long enough for citizenship, but more for retired people who may not be able to afford the healthcare after Brexit, particularly with the weak pound which their pensions are paid in, or may not be granted a visa if they don't meet the requirements of the country they live in. Also the young people who may not be able to live, study and work abroad with the ease that we had when we arrived!
30 November 2018, 02:36 PM
#3817
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The slogan "Clinging to Power" couldn't me more true today!
01 December 2018, 02:20 PM
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Youll need to scour the Red tops for encouragement on rising wages following brexit ...
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/10...estion-time-UK
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/10...estion-time-UK
Yay! 
01 December 2018, 04:39 PM
#3823
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Prior to 2016 if I said Jacob Rees Mog would be your hero you'd have laughed in my face. And as for immigration from the EU, yes it's down, replaced by immigration from outside of the EU... where the muslims come from 
01 December 2018, 05:08 PM
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Where is the good news? 
Unless it's being nicer ( one would hope) to rest of the world, in desperate hope they'll come here to work
We're more than likely going to crash out or have another referendum / government anyway !
Unless it's being nicer ( one would hope) to rest of the world, in desperate hope they'll come here to work
We're more than likely going to crash out or have another referendum / government anyway !
Last edited by dpb; 01 December 2018 at 05:09 PM.
02 December 2018, 12:53 AM
#3825
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My business is now faced with a huge fall off in applications from the EU. The result being that we can't find the right people or fulfil all our clients work.
We are now in a expensive game of trying to entice our competitors employees faster than they entice ours. Great news if you're in demand, bloody terrible if you're trying to build a business.
02 December 2018, 08:53 PM
#3826
The government is falling apart that much proving leaving Europe isn’t a sensible option. The only people who think the country isn’t falling apart are constantly using phrases like “ project fear”. The country really is falling apart, prices for food and fuel have rocketed since the vote due to poor currency and if the pound drops further due to a no deal things will just get even more expensive.
Europeans are obviously not coming to the UK for work now as £ to € makes it not worth their grief. Wether people agree with it or not there is going to be another referendum or a general election and the winning party will have to leave without a deal.
which would you rather have?
Europeans are obviously not coming to the UK for work now as £ to € makes it not worth their grief. Wether people agree with it or not there is going to be another referendum or a general election and the winning party will have to leave without a deal.
which would you rather have?
03 December 2018, 10:58 AM
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I am really happy the value of the pound is dropping (long may it continue), it has been too high for too long, people are losing far to much money in exchange rates whenever they have anything to do with the UK.
03 December 2018, 11:50 AM
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Maybe if everyone in the UK wasn't so greedy and everything so expensive you wouldn't have so many issues. Why is it practically everything I buy in mainland Europe is cheaper than in the UK?
It seesm the answer to everything in the UK is put the price up or add more tax to it.
You have the worst and most expensive rail service in the civilised world yet in January the prices go up again by 3.1%
It seesm the answer to everything in the UK is put the price up or add more tax to it.
You have the worst and most expensive rail service in the civilised world yet in January the prices go up again by 3.1%
03 December 2018, 12:31 PM
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This is fun, not sure if anyone has taken the time to watch all the "explained in a minute..." media. It's all gash.
03 December 2018, 01:34 PM
#3834
The government is falling apart that much proving leaving Europe isn’t a sensible option. The only people who think the country isn’t falling apart are constantly using phrases like “ project fear”. The country really is falling apart, prices for food and fuel have rocketed since the vote due to poor currency and if the pound drops further due to a no deal things will just get even more expensive.
Europeans are obviously not coming to the UK for work now as £ to € makes it not worth their grief. Wether people agree with it or not there is going to be another referendum or a general election and the winning party will have to leave without a deal.
which would you rather have?
Europeans are obviously not coming to the UK for work now as £ to € makes it not worth their grief. Wether people agree with it or not there is going to be another referendum or a general election and the winning party will have to leave without a deal.
which would you rather have?
I’m not so sure about you blaming living costs on the UK exchange rate is wholly justifyable, Steve. I drove through France on Friday and diesel there hovers around €1.50 upto €1.60 which at today’s exchange rate is on par with UK diesel. Not to forget, as widely reported the French are also suffering cost of living hardship.
Spain has also become alot more expensive, diesel has gone up (albeit cheaper than France at approx €1.21, having rocketed up from €1 a litre ). Food and shopping costs a lot more without much reasoning to why, apart from most of Spain’s supermarkets are French (as well as German Aldi/Lidl), so I believe there are wider forces at play here that is affecting living costs across various European countries, not just the UK. The grass at the moment certainly is not any greener.
The UK government being in a mess is almost a given expectation considering the quality of the MPs that are supposed to represent us. We’ve had worse, but I doubt we’ll get any better ones in the next few decades.
Last edited by ALi-B; 03 December 2018 at 09:33 PM. Reason: Pound and Euro symbols missing :wonder:
03 December 2018, 01:35 PM
#3835
I'll be honest there is still some proper condescending horse sh!te being written on here.
Still the same old "Brexiteers are thick racists" crap being spouted.
So project fear is just in a Brexiteers imagination right? Just look at the news outlets last week when no deal became a real possibility. Economic disaster looming, food shortages, house prices dropping by 30%, GDP dropping by 11% over the next 15 years, at a greater risk of security threats.
The list continues to be added to on a daily basis blah blah.
They tried all this bo11ocks before the vote too. GDP would fall blah blah, it rose. Admittedly because of the weaker £ but my point there is they completely miscalculated it by almost 5%.
The only thing that's made Brexit the mess that it's become is the Remainers not accepting the vote and not getting behind it.
I also tend to agree with what's already been written. The negotiations have been deliberately cocked up so that another "peoples vote" is the only real possibility. The initial vote gets overturned and remainers will then spout the whole process has been democratic.
Democracy my ****!
Still the same old "Brexiteers are thick racists" crap being spouted.
So project fear is just in a Brexiteers imagination right? Just look at the news outlets last week when no deal became a real possibility. Economic disaster looming, food shortages, house prices dropping by 30%, GDP dropping by 11% over the next 15 years, at a greater risk of security threats.
The list continues to be added to on a daily basis blah blah.
They tried all this bo11ocks before the vote too. GDP would fall blah blah, it rose. Admittedly because of the weaker £ but my point there is they completely miscalculated it by almost 5%.
The only thing that's made Brexit the mess that it's become is the Remainers not accepting the vote and not getting behind it.
I also tend to agree with what's already been written. The negotiations have been deliberately cocked up so that another "peoples vote" is the only real possibility. The initial vote gets overturned and remainers will then spout the whole process has been democratic.
Democracy my ****!
03 December 2018, 01:50 PM
#3836
I'll be honest there is still some proper condescending horse sh!te being written on here.
Still the same old "Brexiteers are thick racists" crap being spouted.
So project fear is just in a Brexiteers imagination right? Just look at the news outlets last week when no deal became a real possibility. Economic disaster looming, food shortages, house prices dropping by 30%, GDP dropping by 11% over the next 15 years, at a greater risk of security threats.
The list continues to be added to on a daily basis blah blah.
They tried all this bo11ocks before the vote too. GDP would fall blah blah, it rose. Admittedly because of the weaker £ but my point there is they completely miscalculated it by almost 5%.
The only thing that's made Brexit the mess that it's become is the Remainers not accepting the vote and not getting behind it.
I also tend to agree with what's already been written. The negotiations have been deliberately cocked up so that another "peoples vote" is the only real possibility. The initial vote gets overturned and remainers will then spout the whole process has been democratic.
Democracy my ****!
Still the same old "Brexiteers are thick racists" crap being spouted.
So project fear is just in a Brexiteers imagination right? Just look at the news outlets last week when no deal became a real possibility. Economic disaster looming, food shortages, house prices dropping by 30%, GDP dropping by 11% over the next 15 years, at a greater risk of security threats.
The list continues to be added to on a daily basis blah blah.
They tried all this bo11ocks before the vote too. GDP would fall blah blah, it rose. Admittedly because of the weaker £ but my point there is they completely miscalculated it by almost 5%.
The only thing that's made Brexit the mess that it's become is the Remainers not accepting the vote and not getting behind it.
I also tend to agree with what's already been written. The negotiations have been deliberately cocked up so that another "peoples vote" is the only real possibility. The initial vote gets overturned and remainers will then spout the whole process has been democratic.
Democracy my ****!
03 December 2018, 02:00 PM
#3837
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If you happen to be a full on brexiter,things couldnt possibly be going better as far as i can see ?!
project fear lol
all the while glossing over the irish border issue ( not even a mention)
project fear lol
all the while glossing over the irish border issue ( not even a mention)
Last edited by dpb; 03 December 2018 at 02:11 PM.
03 December 2018, 02:23 PM
#3838
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https://www.theguardian.com/business...ations-ilo-pay
Still , we can look fwd to massive wage growth when got shot those migrants
just like in Japan !
Still , we can look fwd to massive wage growth when got shot those migrants
just like in Japan !
03 December 2018, 02:32 PM
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https://www.theguardian.com/business...ations-ilo-pay
Still , we can look fwd to massive wage growth when got shot those migrants
just like in Japan !
Still , we can look fwd to massive wage growth when got shot those migrants
just like in Japan !
