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Will Europe crash and burn after tonight

Old May 11, 2012 | 03:09 PM
  #31  
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Originally Posted by GlesgaKiss
Note to self: when cranky after a view beers, walk AWAY from the computer...
Nothing like telling it how it is though!

Les
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Old May 11, 2012 | 07:30 PM
  #32  
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Originally Posted by David Lock
Well more a bump than a crash perhaps.

Markets mostly down, especially Greece, and £ 10% up on Euro compared to last year. Money goes to dollars and yen.


dl
Dollars?? Fekkin DOLLARS???????

THOSE fekkers are in a worse state than WE are......

AND they caused most of the mess.........
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Old May 14, 2012 | 02:52 PM
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We should have sweepstake on how many more months " Europe" will survive
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Old May 14, 2012 | 03:16 PM
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Originally Posted by andy97
Immigrants to be refused medicines, because without nationality papers you wont get medical help. In aid of cost cutting

Make sure you have decent travel insurance if you go to Spain
But that's how it should be anyway.
You want medical help - then you've gotta pay
the UK should be like that too
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Old May 14, 2012 | 04:45 PM
  #35  
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Not looking good http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18055629

Open talk of Greece leaving the Euro. If that happens what are the prospects for Spain? Not enough money around to bail them out, let alone Italy...
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Old May 14, 2012 | 04:51 PM
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And STILL the £ hovers 20% down on it's value when the € came into being!
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Old May 14, 2012 | 04:56 PM
  #37  
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If Greece leaves the Eurozone and defaults, surely all that bailout money will be lost? As in, it would have been much better for all parties if they'd defaulted sooner?
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Old May 14, 2012 | 07:16 PM
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It's in no ones best interest for Greece to exit the EMU.....the Greeks are passionate people and they have vocally expressed their dissatisfaction with the recent election. In a recent poll approx 72% said they wanted to remain in the EU and keep the Euro, perhaps they will come to their senses in the next election (if no coalition is formed) however recent opinion polls also suggest perhaps greater weight towards the extreme left parties.

Today's open talk of Greek exit is a reminder to the nation that their exit will effect them greater than the rest of the EU. The problem is Greece either faces a tough 5 year battle of austerity and low growth if it stays in the EU and EMU or it faces 10 years of depravity in the case it elects to withdraw.....it's now down to them to choose to cut their nose off to spite their face
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Old May 14, 2012 | 07:39 PM
  #39  
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Where do get these figures
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Old May 14, 2012 | 09:51 PM
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Financial press
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Old May 14, 2012 | 10:09 PM
  #41  
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surely its 5 years for us, but 20 to 30 years for the Greeks if they remain in the Euro, and have to pay back all the borrowed money (which they have no hope of doing)
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Old May 14, 2012 | 11:10 PM
  #42  
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Originally Posted by alloy
It's in no ones best interest for Greece to exit the EMU.....the Greeks are passionate people and they have vocally expressed their dissatisfaction with the recent election. In a recent poll approx 72% said they wanted to remain in the EU and keep the Euro, perhaps they will come to their senses in the next election (if no coalition is formed) however recent opinion polls also suggest perhaps greater weight towards the extreme left parties.

Today's open talk of Greek exit is a reminder to the nation that their exit will effect them greater than the rest of the EU. The problem is Greece either faces a tough 5 year battle of austerity and low growth if it stays in the EU and EMU or it faces 10 years of depravity in the case it elects to withdraw.....it's now down to them to choose to cut their nose off to spite their face
It surely depends on a person's political outlook. That says to me that they've expressed their dissatisfaction at not being able to be given money by other countries (including this one). But, of course, your average Greek is not aware of the exact statistical economic consequences of being in the Euro or not, of full default or not. Their main concern is their standard of living, and principles or any kind of understanding of global commerce, in my opinion, doesn't enter the equation.

For them, it's a simple case of the avoidance of pain (austerity) and the seeking of pleasure (bailout money). They associate the Euro with good things because it made them feel good for a while. Maybe it would be best for them to stay on the Euro. But the question is still whether money should be thrown into the seemingly bottomless pit in order to finance their consumption just on the off chance that they might go through an economic miracle.

How do you arrive at the ten years of depravity in the event of their leaving the EMU? Is the battle with austerity even something that's winnable?
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Old May 14, 2012 | 11:21 PM
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any hopeless bankrupt will tell you their financial recovery begins at the moment they declare it

staying in the Euro Greeks recovery will only begin once its debts are paid, 20 to 30 to 50 years away - if ever

Last edited by hodgy0_2; May 15, 2012 at 12:26 PM. Reason: spelling
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Old May 14, 2012 | 11:33 PM
  #44  
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Originally Posted by hodgy0_2
any hopeless bankrupt will tell you there financial recovery begins at the moment they declare it

staying in the Euro Greeks recovery will only begin once its debts are paid, 20 to 30 to 50 years away - if ever
Modern economics separates the micro from the macro. At the individual level, economics obeys the laws of reality. Where a country is concerned, witchcraft can frequently be achieved.
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Old May 15, 2012 | 11:27 AM
  #45  
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When you've got 'em by the ***** their hearts and minds will follow. This is particularly apt at the moment.

Despite what is being said I wouldn't be that surprised if the EC extended the time frame for Greece to pay back its loans whilst insisting on more control over Greek finances, especially an update of its tax collection system.

dl
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Old May 15, 2012 | 11:36 AM
  #46  
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The EU is particularly worried about a second round of elections, because the Syriza is probably going to win that and they are for renegotiating the bailout, which is the same as not having a bailout
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Old May 15, 2012 | 12:16 PM
  #47  
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Originally Posted by GlesgaKiss
It surely depends on a person's political outlook. That says to me that they've expressed their dissatisfaction at not being able to be given money by other countries (including this one). But, of course, your average Greek is not aware of the exact statistical economic consequences of being in the Euro or not, of full default or not. Their main concern is their standard of living, and principles or any kind of understanding of global commerce, in my opinion, doesn't enter the equation.

For them, it's a simple case of the avoidance of pain (austerity) and the seeking of pleasure (bailout money). They associate the Euro with good things because it made them feel good for a while. Maybe it would be best for them to stay on the Euro. But the question is still whether money should be thrown into the seemingly bottomless pit in order to finance their consumption just on the off chance that they might go through an economic miracle.

How do you arrive at the ten years of depravity in the event of their leaving the EMU? Is the battle with austerity even something that's winnable?
I think there comes a time when the people of Greece will believe that their lives can not get any worse, they may be feeling that now, but i believe their exit from the Euro will compound their misery longer than them sticking with the current bailout program, so therefore they still have more to lose...

Is Austerity winnable? Yes look at Germany....its a long road but it gets you to your destination!

Originally Posted by hodgy0_2
any hopeless bankrupt will tell you there financial recovery begins at the moment they declare it

staying in the Euro Greeks recovery will only begin once its debts are paid, 20 to 30 to 50 years away - if ever
The difference between a hopeless bankrupt and Greece is that the bankrupt still earns and pays away in the same currency as its peers, Greece currency will get hammered and compound their misery
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Old May 15, 2012 | 12:43 PM
  #48  
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Is it really possible to make Germans out of Greeks though
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Old May 15, 2012 | 01:16 PM
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Originally Posted by dpb
Is it really possible to make Germans out of Greeks though
Sure ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgHxfpf61t4
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Old May 15, 2012 | 01:22 PM
  #50  
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Yes , without this measure lol
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Old May 15, 2012 | 01:23 PM
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Originally Posted by dpb
Is it really possible to make Germans out of Greeks though
The short answer is no since tax evasion is a national past time for the majority of the Greeks.
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Old May 17, 2012 | 12:56 PM
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Below 5000 end of the week ?
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Old May 17, 2012 | 01:09 PM
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Originally Posted by jonc
The short answer is no since tax evasion is a national past time for the majority of the Greeks.
Perhaps if people over here thought on a little and paid their dues a bit more willingly we wont end up in the same boat, not so much the odd £100 cash job, I am talking about the billionaires avoiding tax, I can understand a bit of Evasion for folks to make ends meet if its the difference between sink or swim but the cynical avoidance of millions in tax, by people who dont need the money I find repulsive.
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Old May 17, 2012 | 01:16 PM
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Can you bloody believe that Cretin Miliband wants to increase our debts , still.
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Old May 17, 2012 | 03:42 PM
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Originally Posted by J4CKO
Perhaps if people over here thought on a little and paid their dues a bit more willingly we wont end up in the same boat, not so much the odd £100 cash job, I am talking about the billionaires avoiding tax, I can understand a bit of Evasion for folks to make ends meet if its the difference between sink or swim but the cynical avoidance of millions in tax, by people who dont need the money I find repulsive.
The problem is that everyone Greece was doing it, not just the billionaires. Greece has a black market economy that makes up 33% of it's total economic output. It isn't a case of trying to make ends meet, (though this may actually be the case now however self defeating) it's a way of life and the lack of legislation and policing made paying taxes almost an option.

I don't think the UK will ever get into the same situation as the Greeks are experiencing now, our tax system is a lot more stringent in comparison and whilst there are many of the rich who take advantage of the tax loop holes (who wouldn't if given the chance!) they are not doing anything illegal and it is up to the Government to close these loopholes.
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Old May 17, 2012 | 04:01 PM
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From what I hear the tax collection system is appallingly out of date. Manual with virtually no proper systems existing.

I'd have thought the EC could insist on decent systems being installed with say a 3- month deadline. At that time they would start locking up a few obvious high earners who hadn't declared their income/wealth and confiscating a few yachts. And freeze large Euro bank withdrawals.

This would be a great start and wouldn't upset the majority living on the bread line.

dl
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Old May 17, 2012 | 04:33 PM
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Originally Posted by dpb
Below 5000 end of the week ?
calling the market down 7% tomorrow? I guess not out of the question but perhaps a little on the excessive side! Lots of exhaustion signals printing, lots of upside reversal patterns out there i should be trading long, but my head just says no!

Originally Posted by David Lock
From what I hear the tax collection system is appallingly out of date. Manual with virtually no proper systems existing.

I'd have thought the EC could insist on decent systems being installed with say a 3- month deadline. At that time they would start locking up a few obvious high earners who hadn't declared their income/wealth and confiscating a few yachts. And freeze large Euro bank withdrawals.

This would be a great start and wouldn't upset the majority living on the bread line.

dl
IMF playing chicken and saying all communication with Greece halted until election concluded. Now it is all down to Germany, they are the deciding party as to the Euro and EU continuing or not. Germany are at huge risk.....perhaps they might reconsider the EuroBond route as the EU constitution will need tweaking regardless. UK GDP to be effected by -6% in the event of Euro breakup the recession will well and truly become a depression!
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Old May 17, 2012 | 04:56 PM
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Who do all these countries owe all this money to, I don't understand it ?

Seems the whole financial world is tying itself in knots trying to even all this out, who is sat there calling in the debts as all countries seem to have massive debt apart from about 2, do they owe it to individuals, companies or what ?
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Old May 17, 2012 | 05:03 PM
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Originally Posted by alloy
calling the market down 7% tomorrow? I guess not out of the question but perhaps a little on the excessive side! Lots of exhaustion signals printing, lots of upside reversal patterns out there i should be trading long, but my head just says no!



IMF playing chicken and saying all communication with Greece halted until election concluded. Now it is all down to Germany, they are the deciding party as to the Euro and EU continuing or not. Germany are at huge risk.....perhaps they might reconsider the EuroBond route as the EU constitution will need tweaking regardless. UK GDP to be effected by -6% in the event of Euro breakup the recession will well and truly become a depression!
Can you explain that last sentence please?
I'm not doubting it, just don't understand why? And how you arrive at a figure of 6%?
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Old May 17, 2012 | 05:03 PM
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Originally Posted by alloy
calling the market down 7% tomorrow? I guess not out of the question but perhaps a little on the excessive side! Lots of exhaustion signals printing, lots of upside reversal patterns out there i should be trading long, but my head just says no!



IMF playing chicken and saying all communication with Greece halted until election concluded. Now it is all down to Germany, they are the deciding party as to the Euro and EU continuing or not. Germany are at huge risk.....perhaps they might reconsider the EuroBond route as the EU constitution will need tweaking regardless. UK GDP to be effected by -6% in the event of Euro breakup the recession will well and truly become a depression!
Yes UK will be hit hard but presumably we will still trade with EU but just get payment in Pounds or Dollars (Marks?) if the Euro goes **** up. Trade marked down in the dodgy countries such as Spain and, unfortunately, Eire. Plus some UK banks will take a kicking but not go bust?

dl
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