ricardo

Oh no ! they're running out of gold...

(goes and buys some more - I had a bid that triggered in a nice dip at 14:00 so I'm back in again and it is creeping up. Allowing for charges would probably have been better to have simply stayed in, but that's hindsight for you)

Is somebody else going to use that referral ? BullionVault.com

GlesgaKiss

Well I'll have to admit it... I closed a bet before the US open out of uncertainty(not that certainty exists when trading anyway).

Dingdongler

Yes mate, but out of all the people in the supermarket ie all the 'lay' people only one was buying. The rest were all selling. This show that the UK population in general has not taken to gold as an asset class.
And as I've said, I think I'm the only person here who has admitted to buying physical.

Anyway, you are the expert not me, but I no longer trust the experts (no offence to you) in these matters. I would love gold to drop 30%, I would shuffle the portfolio to circa 40% gold.
Sadly for me it's not going to happen. We will not see sub $1000 gold for the forseeable future.

marky1

Yeah but you are missing the point on why they are buying. They're not buying because they think it's going up, they're buying because they have an arbitrage. they don't care if its 1150 or 1050 or 950.
I'm not a gold expert, I'm a trader. If I'm wrong I'm wrong and I'll lose money. Where I am an expert compared to you though, is that I wouldn't allow myself to still be in a market that has dropped 30%.
Anyway, we'll see what happens, you've made your call (not below $1000 for the foreseeable future) and I've made mine, may the best man win!

alloy

Capitalism at it's best!

Dingdongler

Good to get a professionals view point.

Its hit a new record of $1200 today. Have you hit your margin call?

Whats the timescale for your predicted 30% correction?

GlesgaKiss

He did say "over the next few months".

Dingdongler

Thanks, I was just curious. I haven't got long to save up some more cash to load up on gold when it drops to $900 then

GlesgaKiss

It will be interesting to see what happens. I'll be trading it daily either way.

marky1

No, because I use a stop. A stop is what you will wish you had if it does drop 30% because that's the money you could save by using one!
As I said last week I was short 20 futures from 1169.7, I got stopped out (lost $10,600) I will re-enter at some stage.
by the way you do understand the correlation with USD yeah?
To answer your question, I can see it below $1000 in the first half of next year. I just feel there will be a big retracement at some stage. As I said, if I'm wrong I lose money - that's my job I do it day in day out.....

marky1

By the way, have a read of these from before your time, think I have been pretty accurate on these things, that's not to say I will be right this time but I'm not just sprouting off **** there is some form of logic to my trading thoughts. I'm not trying to get into a competition with you, quite frankly I don't really care what Gold does but as I said I can see a sharp sell off and I want to be on it when it happens, if it doesn't, then c'est la vie....



https://www.scoobynet.com/non-scooby...e-again-8.html


This one isn't finished yet but I'm pretty comfortable with my call

https://www.scoobynet.com/non-scooby...-exchange.html

Dingdongler

1) I can't have a stop loss as I hold physical, I'm very happy with that.

2) Thank you, I do understand the correlation with $, and am able to tell you what % of any price change of gold is due to $ change. You may feel the $ is oversold, I don't.

3) Your last sentence makes it sound as though your job is to lose money and that's what you do day in day out, but I'm sure that's not what you meant! LOL

4) Why do you feel gold will have such a big correction, it can't be based purely on somebody in the supermarket buying gold from your mum?

Dingdongler

Sorry, didn't see your last post before posting the above.

Thanks for the links, I'll have a read when I get home. I'm genuinely interested in your opinion, apologies if I come across a bit over zealous.

alloy

Dingdongler your third point, the only guarantee in trading/speculating on a short term basis is that losses will be made, hence why risk management, money management and stop losses are paramount to any strategy. If you sit on your losses you not only see a paper loss accumulate you also have the bear the opportunity cost of having that margin tied up, it just doesn't make sense!! Of course for a long term investor yes you have the luxury of time to sit hope and pray but that's a whole different mentality!

The beauty of the market is that it requires two views, because everything is matched off, so it's a nil sum game for every winner there is a loser. Just matters that either your winning poisitions are greater than your losing positions or/and you win more times than you lose. Its a percentage game at the end of the day!

marky1

No need to apologise, no offence taken.

Read your above post as well.

Just to clarify you can have a stop loss when trading physical. There are a few ways, some very basic but nonetheless effective. The bigger the position size the easier and less expensive it is to hedge (within reason) All your other points - noted! Point 4, no clearly not, but all these bits of information help me build a picture of what I think will happen.

GlesgaKiss

Gold up another $20 almost on yesterday's price.

GlesgaKiss

Well, I've rethought my strategy. I'll no longer be holding on to losses; instead I'll be cutting them when I realise I'm wrong about short-term movements. I want to concentrate on making money consistently from trading.

Spread betting account now up 140%.

Dingdongler

Doing well. Gold notches up to another record.

Marky, interesting you mentioned earlier whether I understood the relationship between the dollar and gold. Today dollar is up, but gold is still up. What do you think about that?

marky1

Not really sure what to make of it, perhaps there wasn't "enough" of a USD move to have much of an effect? Or the fundamentals outweighed the USD move? USD was pretty quiet yesterday, spent most of the day above 1.5070 v EUR aside from a blip down for a few hours in the late afternoon.
Could be an interesting day today (ECB meeting), any sign from the ECB that they will index LTRO's for either DEC or next year will be seen as a sign that rate rises are on the way and you would expect the USD to get sold off.

GlesgaKiss

Do any of you guys have a book that you would recommend for a beginner to technical analysis? Maybe Telboy in particular, as you seem to be quite clued up when it comes to charts.

I'm currently reading 'High Probability Trading' by Marcel Link. Pretty good book, but it only touches on the very basics of technical analysis.

alloy

Reading charts IMO is an art not a science, you want to start by getting a good understanding of candlesticks and start paper trading using some basic oscillators and indicators, just remember price and volume are essential to TA pretty much every tool is a derivative from these two variables!

A good start would be looking into MACD, RSI, Stochastic, Williams %R and while understanding what they mean Moving Averages are a very handsome trend tool giving you a good chance to make entry into a rally at a decent price again suggest 200 day, 70,50,30,10 day moving averages and a mix between a simple MA and an exponential MA and just find what works for you from there. Also then have a look at bollinger bands, what they represent and the different ways they can be used. Most importantly though don't over saturate yourself with these as it is very easy to see conflicting signals, false signals etc. stick to maybe 2 or 3 oscillators a few moving averages and a good understanding of candlesticks and you should start to see new ways to generate trade ideas.

marky1

Technical Analysis of the Futures Market, John Murphy. Will help you fall asleep at night!

GlesgaKiss

Thanks for the info alloy and Lol @ falling asleep marky1.

Just lost a good chunk of money being long on gold. Thought it was looking oversold. Should have checked the news straight away to find out what exactly was behind the selling, but didn't.

Also, stop losses went out the window. Definitely let my emotions get to me there.

GlesgaKiss

Unemployment data out. Made some of my money back last night, but staying out of things until they calm down a bit.

TelBoy

Gold was a sell at 1200. It's still a sell here. Back to 1100 short term.

ricardo

Oops, after over-reacting a while back I ignored this one and stayed in. The net effect is that the price has dropped all the way to where it was at, er, the beginning of the week...

Dingdongler

If it drops to $1100, which it may not, I'm going to load up on physical, it maybe the last chance before the run to $1500.

marky1

So just to clarify, what you are saying is whatever position you have on as of now, you will still have on at $1100?

TelBoy

Not at all convinced gold needs to go to $1,500. Where did that number come from? I can't see any technical reason why it should happen, even less so after Friday's payrolls.

marky1

Totally agree, US rates up sooner than expected, strengthening USD and gold off. As things start to look rosier the willingness of people to hold gold reduces.