House Prices Now At 2004 Levels
03 January 2009, 11:14 AM
#61
As others have already mentioned, public sector workers - like me and many others - have had more than our fair share of the lean years. Now it's the private sector's turn. You want bonuses, job flexibility, a company car, tax breaks, overtime, better take home pay, then that's fine. You made your choice, and public sector workers made theirs. If you now want a public sector job so bad, why don't you go and get one if you think it would suit you? I made my choice that I wanted to do something useful with my life and forego the high salaries for something my family and I could just about get by on, knowing that eventually my pension will be OK and that my job is relatively immune to the effects of the economy because I do a job that has been needed throughout human history and always will be. It was a hard decision to follow that path after uni when all my mates were going straight into very high earning telecomms jobs in the mid 90s, and I was earning £700 a month. But there you go, that's life eh?
I have a reply which I will start another thread with .
03 January 2009, 11:19 AM
#62
I don't think prices are going to fall much further. Sooner or later landlords are going to be back in the market. Rents are now higher than mortgages + other costs. So it is possible to buy places and them not cost you anything.
Its all a question of finance and timing. I'm thinking that within the next 12 months you will start to see landlords moving back into the market, especially the ones that in it for the long term.
Its all a question of finance and timing. I'm thinking that within the next 12 months you will start to see landlords moving back into the market, especially the ones that in it for the long term.
There will be many who are ready to pounce ,and those that do their homework will get the bargains .
Previously we have seen the amateurs buying flats etc off plan with no real idea of the value of the completed property .They paid massively over the odds and are now stuck or losing them at less than they paid .
You make your money on a property when you buy it ,in my opinion .That is getting it at the right price ,then adding value .
03 January 2009, 12:11 PM
#63
We bought our house at the "Peak" if you like in July 06.. Property in our village is predominantly stone amd either 2 bed houses or farmhouses.
We thought we had paid the max that our house was worth TBH,but loved its position and character..
There are 2 houses for sale presently in our area that are identical in design and size and both are more than 20% more than we paid,one is very close to 25%..
Houses that are sold cheap is because people have overstretched in the 1st place,just thinking the upward spiral would never end.. Now there thinking about negative equity and panicing..
God knows why..people have to live somewhere..
My mate recently dropped a bo**ock... He thought interest rates were gonna soar,thats what all the economic "experts" were saying. So tied himself into a fixed rate mortgage of 5.9%..Costing him £1000 a month.
The only thing that is certain about the property market is that it will ebb and flow,some will get make money,some will catch a cold...
Common sense and cutting your cloth accordingly will make sure you will never have mortage/property worries.
We thought we had paid the max that our house was worth TBH,but loved its position and character..
There are 2 houses for sale presently in our area that are identical in design and size and both are more than 20% more than we paid,one is very close to 25%..
Houses that are sold cheap is because people have overstretched in the 1st place,just thinking the upward spiral would never end.. Now there thinking about negative equity and panicing..
God knows why..people have to live somewhere..
My mate recently dropped a bo**ock... He thought interest rates were gonna soar,thats what all the economic "experts" were saying. So tied himself into a fixed rate mortgage of 5.9%..Costing him £1000 a month.
The only thing that is certain about the property market is that it will ebb and flow,some will get make money,some will catch a cold...
Common sense and cutting your cloth accordingly will make sure you will never have mortage/property worries.
03 January 2009, 12:30 PM
#64
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I'm an old fella, as you all know ..... if there is one piece of advice I could offer which holds true in all climates, and that's to pay off your mortgage as soon as you possibly can!!
I took out a Flexible Mortgage when they first came out, paid every single penny into it (knowing I could take it out if I needed to) ... used it as a savings account - my mortgage was clear in 7 years and I've never looked back.
I took out a Flexible Mortgage when they first came out, paid every single penny into it (knowing I could take it out if I needed to) ... used it as a savings account - my mortgage was clear in 7 years and I've never looked back.
03 January 2009, 12:45 PM
#65
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The only difference between now & 6-9 months ago is (a) people are nervous due to the recession so aren't buying much let alone houses (b) Banks have stopped lending to each other / us either at all or at good rates. If it wasn't for the above house prices would still be rising ergo once the above is resolved they will start to climb again. IMHO it will not last for 5yrs as a poster above stated ... 2009 will remain bad & we'll be coming out of it in 2010.
Those with houses sit tight for a few years, those without have 6-18 months to buy.
TX.
Those with houses sit tight for a few years, those without have 6-18 months to buy.
TX.
03 January 2009, 12:56 PM
#66
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Then you have to factor in massively increased levels of risk as so many are losing jobs, or are at risk of losing their job. The economy is utterly screwed, and isn't likely to pull out of this deep recession/depression for 3-5year at least IMO - what is the light at the end of the tunnel?
Also people need to remember that even though prices are down almost 20% from peak, that even with another 35% fall prices would still be expensive - prices had risen to insane levels.
I think theres a good chance of 50-60% falls from peak, and I dont think prices will be rising sharply again for a long long time.
03 January 2009, 12:59 PM
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03 January 2009, 01:13 PM
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But the banks wont EVER lend like they were doing in the peak of the boom!
Then you have to factor in massively increased levels of risk as so many are losing jobs, or are at risk of losing their job. The economy is utterly screwed, and isn't likely to pull out of this deep recession/depression for 3-5year at least IMO - what is the light at the end of the tunnel?
Also people need to remember that even though prices are down almost 20% from peak, that even with another 35% fall prices would still be expensive - prices had risen to insane levels.
I think theres a good chance of 50-60% falls from peak, and I dont think prices will be rising sharply again for a long long time.
Then you have to factor in massively increased levels of risk as so many are losing jobs, or are at risk of losing their job. The economy is utterly screwed, and isn't likely to pull out of this deep recession/depression for 3-5year at least IMO - what is the light at the end of the tunnel?
Also people need to remember that even though prices are down almost 20% from peak, that even with another 35% fall prices would still be expensive - prices had risen to insane levels.
I think theres a good chance of 50-60% falls from peak, and I dont think prices will be rising sharply again for a long long time.
03 January 2009, 01:18 PM
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03 January 2009, 01:23 PM
#70
Our house is now worth about 30k less than when it was purchased in 2004.
It was a desirable and unusual property back in 2004 (part of a former factory converted into a house) and so this pushed the price too high. In the few years after, many similar properties cropped up (although they have been flats), so demand dropped. The price correction has been huge over the last year (and in that time ours has gone on and off the market).
So now we are going to stay put for a few more years.
It was a desirable and unusual property back in 2004 (part of a former factory converted into a house) and so this pushed the price too high. In the few years after, many similar properties cropped up (although they have been flats), so demand dropped. The price correction has been huge over the last year (and in that time ours has gone on and off the market).
So now we are going to stay put for a few more years.
03 January 2009, 01:32 PM
#72
I think anyone who thinks that this "dip" is going to last a year or so is deluded..
5 yrs is a good estimate for things to turn round and start getting back on track.
The economy is knacked and confidence is well and truly lost in all consumer markets.i think that the next year will see much of the same as we have seen in the last 6 months,but interest rates will start to rise.The current rate cannot be sustained for long considering the country is skint..
The interest rate,Vat rate and fuel prices have been made to drop because the govermnment has finally realised that there pushing the common man too far.. Riots would not have been far off if fuel was to carry on escalating at the rate it was..
5 yrs is a good estimate for things to turn round and start getting back on track.
The economy is knacked and confidence is well and truly lost in all consumer markets.i think that the next year will see much of the same as we have seen in the last 6 months,but interest rates will start to rise.The current rate cannot be sustained for long considering the country is skint..
The interest rate,Vat rate and fuel prices have been made to drop because the govermnment has finally realised that there pushing the common man too far.. Riots would not have been far off if fuel was to carry on escalating at the rate it was..
03 January 2009, 01:38 PM
#73
I'm an old fella, as you all know ..... if there is one piece of advice I could offer which holds true in all climates, and that's to pay off your mortgage as soon as you possibly can!!
I took out a Flexible Mortgage when they first came out, paid every single penny into it (knowing I could take it out if I needed to) ... used it as a savings account - my mortgage was clear in 7 years and I've never looked back.
I took out a Flexible Mortgage when they first came out, paid every single penny into it (knowing I could take it out if I needed to) ... used it as a savings account - my mortgage was clear in 7 years and I've never looked back.
I believe although i still have not renovated it yet i have lost some money due to the decline...but then again it's supposed to be a family home so it doesn't matter as i will renovate and then live in it for a long long while.
On the other hand a mate of mine has lost a few hundred thousand pound on his BTL mortgages...and property prices. And it's getting worse.
04 January 2009, 12:52 PM
#76
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Quite true - fuel prices have little to do with the Government of the day ... save the odd 2p per litre per year (but even that has been frozen for years)
Petrol has dropped by about 30p a litre over the past 2 months or so ..... due fully to worldwide demand and supply. So, lets not have any anti-government complaints if it goes up a few pennies due to circumstances beyond our control
Petrol has dropped by about 30p a litre over the past 2 months or so ..... due fully to worldwide demand and supply. So, lets not have any anti-government complaints if it goes up a few pennies due to circumstances beyond our control
04 January 2009, 08:47 PM
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If Brown and Darling aren't careful they'll be going to the IMF cap-in-hand for an emergency bail-out for the UK for the first time since the 70's when Labour were last in charge and ruined the economy and bankrupted the country. Funny how history repeats...
Back on topic I firmly believe we are looking at house price falls of potentially more than 50-60% from peak now as the economic situation is just so dire. That would put the average home cost at something like 95-100k (which still doesn't look exactly cheap remembering there's less jobs about and banks will be lending 3 x salary with a healthy deposit requires). There are no arguments left for the pro-house price increase brigade left now.
Last edited by Petem95; 04 January 2009 at 08:49 PM.
05 January 2009, 09:23 AM
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I am however gobsmacked at what has happened to interest rates.I remember rates of between 10-15% and the thought of that petrified me.I thought 5% was a pittance and the lower rates part of the reason everyone went house buying crazy
I still wonder if the mortgage lenders will tow the Banks and Government line of expecting them to offer low interest rates when they(lenders) are all skint (ignoring trackers,I mean their SVR's)
05 January 2009, 12:10 PM
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Best hope this next one is better than the last one then. 
I love it on here. So many people either see everything the government does as wrong including things that they cannot be responsible for and others will defend them no matter what.
Fact is I remember exactly the same discussions and points of view in the 90s about the previous government and the truth is that there is no party that will ever get it right, not these days anyway.
In the last 30 years the main political parties have become nothing more than a haven for greedy, self serving, career politicians who are only interested in lining their own pockets and retiring on the back of the taxpayer to a big house somewhere in the countryside.
I love it on here. So many people either see everything the government does as wrong including things that they cannot be responsible for and others will defend them no matter what.
Fact is I remember exactly the same discussions and points of view in the 90s about the previous government and the truth is that there is no party that will ever get it right, not these days anyway.
In the last 30 years the main political parties have become nothing more than a haven for greedy, self serving, career politicians who are only interested in lining their own pockets and retiring on the back of the taxpayer to a big house somewhere in the countryside.
05 January 2009, 06:56 PM
#82
In the last 30 years the main political parties have become nothing more than a haven for greedy, self serving, career politicians who are only interested in lining their own pockets and retiring on the back of the taxpayer to a big house somewhere in the countryside.[/QUOTE]
Couldnt agree more .
They only have their own pockets in mind ,the greedy ,truffle hunting ,trough scoffin ,cracklin backed turds !!!!! IMO.!!!
Couldnt agree more .
They only have their own pockets in mind ,the greedy ,truffle hunting ,trough scoffin ,cracklin backed turds !!!!! IMO.!!!
05 January 2009, 09:49 PM
#83
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"The next 12 months could make or break the UK housing market, according to the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA).
Chief executive Peter Bolton King said that three things needed to happen to start the recovery.
Firstly, major lenders must begin to make money available to potential buyers. Secondly, cuts in interest rates must be passed on to the market and lastly, consumers must begin to recover confidence in the state of the housing market.
He said: “Officially house prices have come down since their peak by around 13 percent – but speaking to members it seems clear that in some areas at least prices have come down by more than 20 percent.
“We haven’t seen that kind of fall, in such a short period of time, ever before"
FT
Chief executive Peter Bolton King said that three things needed to happen to start the recovery.
Firstly, major lenders must begin to make money available to potential buyers. Secondly, cuts in interest rates must be passed on to the market and lastly, consumers must begin to recover confidence in the state of the housing market.
He said: “Officially house prices have come down since their peak by around 13 percent – but speaking to members it seems clear that in some areas at least prices have come down by more than 20 percent.
“We haven’t seen that kind of fall, in such a short period of time, ever before"
FT
06 January 2009, 01:11 PM
#84
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Nationwide have confirmed the House Price collapse ... not sure what freak happened last month to the Nationwide figures - you see the blip?
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/image...ices_jan09.gif
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/image...ices_jan09.gif
06 January 2009, 09:27 PM
#85
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All our pensions are under threat ,unless your working for the Government .In which case you are in a very lucky position as your pretty much guaranteed,a great pension and early retirement .
The rest of us will have to fund this at the expense of our pensions !!!And working until late in life .
Now this I really dont agree with .One rule for us and one for them .
Its a Feckin disgrace to be honest .I wont even go into the amount of time they have off sick !!T055ers .
The rest of us will have to fund this at the expense of our pensions !!!And working until late in life .
Now this I really dont agree with .One rule for us and one for them .
Its a Feckin disgrace to be honest .I wont even go into the amount of time they have off sick !!T055ers .
07 January 2009, 11:57 AM
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I think you are wrong mate, afaik I can retire at 60 ( I am well below 55!) I have bought added years.
If I did have to work until 65 (which I'm quite sure is not the case) then my pension and lump sum would be even bigger as I would get significant pay rises in those last 5 years and I'm on a final salary scheme.
I love my work so it wouldn't be the end of the world anyway
If I did have to work until 65 (which I'm quite sure is not the case) then my pension and lump sum would be even bigger as I would get significant pay rises in those last 5 years and I'm on a final salary scheme.
I love my work so it wouldn't be the end of the world anyway
