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So Brexit seems to be a good thing then.

Old 22 October 2016, 12:12 AM
  #31  
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Originally Posted by Paben View Post
Is our net 10 billion contribution to the EU a price worth paying for tariff-free access to the EU market? If we left the EU with no trade deal at all, which is unlikely, our exports would face EU tariffs averaging just 2.4 per cent. But our net contribution to the EU budget is equivalent to a 7 per cent tariff. Paying 7 cent to avoid 2.4 per cent costs makes no sense.

EU membership prevents the UK negotiating free trade deals and the EU has negotiated few deals for us: none with China, India, Australia and Brazil just to start with.

Does the EUs size mean it gets better deals than we could alone? This is the reverse of the truth. The more countries involved in a trade deal the harder, slower and worse the result.

Perhaps we're not as doomed as the serial whiners would have us believe.
Are you expecting a tax cut as a result of Brexit?

Also this isn't just about tariffs. Free and open access to the Single Market is hugely important to lots of UK businesses, mine included.

Only this week I've had 2 emails from clients, stating that they are cutting all spending in what they call 'non critical' areas, whilst they access the impact of Brexit. Believe me this is going on up and down the country. Unless the government gets a grip and stops sending out mixed messages we are heading into properly difficult times.

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Old 22 October 2016, 12:46 AM
  #32  
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Originally Posted by Martin2005 View Post
Are you expecting a tax cut as a result of Brexit?

Also this isn't just about tariffs. Free and open access to the Single Market is hugely important to lots of UK businesses, mine included.

Only this week I've had 2 emails from clients, stating that they are cutting all spending in what they call 'non critical' areas, whilst they access the impact of Brexit. Believe me this is going on up and down the country. Unless the government gets a grip and stops sending out mixed messages we are heading into properly difficult times.
a very good friend of mine is one of the top patent lawyers in the country

he was in the middle of a protracted two year negotiation to merge his law firm with a German counter part

post Brexit vote, the deal is now off - personally he is still more than OK

inconsequential to everyone posting on SNR - but as you say Brexit IS having consequences in every single area of the UK economy
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Old 22 October 2016, 09:07 AM
  #33  
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Looks like Nissan planning build another car here !
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Old 22 October 2016, 09:09 AM
  #34  
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Originally Posted by hodgy0_2 View Post
a very good friend of mine is one of the top patent lawyers in the country

he was in the middle of a protracted two year negotiation to merge his law firm with a German counter part

post Brexit vote, the deal is now off - personally he is still more than OK

inconsequential to everyone posting on SNR - but as you say Brexit IS having consequences in every single area of the UK economy

On the other hand the protracted negotiations between the EU and Canada have been scuppered by one tiny region of Belgium voting it down. The deal may eventually be saved but it has caused massive frustration and embarrassment all round, a triumph for 3.5 million Wallonians over 540+ million Europeans and Canadians.

In the future the UK can negotiate its trade deals without having to care what an obscure group of Europeans may think or vote, and when the European Court of Justice can no longer interfere with decisions taken in UK courts that will be another considerable bonus.
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Old 22 October 2016, 10:11 AM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by Paben View Post
On the other hand the protracted negotiations between the EU and Canada have been scuppered by one tiny region of Belgium voting it down. The deal may eventually be saved but it has caused massive frustration and embarrassment all round, a triumph for 3.5 million Wallonians over 540+ million Europeans and Canadians.

In the future the UK can negotiate its trade deals without having to care what an obscure group of Europeans may think or vote, and when the European Court of Justice can no longer interfere with decisions taken in UK courts that will be another considerable bonus.
yes, that maybe so

it also blows a hole in the myth that the head of BMW will have the final say in the trade negotiations
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Old 22 October 2016, 10:25 AM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by dpb View Post
Looks like Nissan planning build another car here !
http://www.sunderlandecho.com/our-re...hqai-1-8193677

Officially it hasn't been decided yet, but I doubt the Government would let Nissan leave, there are thousands of jobs around here that depend on them.
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Old 22 October 2016, 10:40 AM
  #37  
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Originally Posted by Norman Dog View Post
http://www.sunderlandecho.com/our-re...hqai-1-8193677

Officially it hasn't been decided yet, but I doubt the Government would let Nissan leave, there are thousands of jobs around here that depend on them.
There were thousands of jobs in the mines, british steel etc, didnt stop the goverment ****ing them off down the road and turning vast swathes of wales etc into jobless wastelands?

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Old 22 October 2016, 11:00 AM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by hodgy0_2 View Post
yes, that maybe so

it also blows a hole in the myth that the head of BMW will have the final say in the trade negotiations

How so? The German government certainly can't ignore its vehicle manufacturers even though they, the manufacturers, can't have any final say in the final outcome. And if some no account countries like Latvia, Croatia or Luxembourg, just to name a few of the EU hangers on, decide to put the trade boot in to the UK then doesn't this just confirm that we really should have no part of such an imbalanced community?
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Old 22 October 2016, 11:14 AM
  #39  
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Originally Posted by JGlanzaV View Post
There were thousands of jobs in the mines, british steel etc, didnt stop the goverment ****ing them off down the road and turning vast swathes of wales etc into jobless wastelands?
True enough. Bet that doesn't happen with the City of London.
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Old 22 October 2016, 12:12 PM
  #40  
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I have been looking at a number of roles in London, and many of the recruitment processes have been stopped due to Brexit uncertainty. There are companies who don't want to make large investments or long term commitments while in a period of uncertainty about what the future may look like, this is turn is already causing job losses. Will be interesting to see if the period of uncertainty is worse than the actual outworking once the exit deal is negotiated.
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Old 22 October 2016, 12:39 PM
  #41  
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We'll go from uncertain we're shafted to certain we're shafted.

Fingers crossed Trump wins then the Americans can have their dumbest population crown back.
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Old 22 October 2016, 01:11 PM
  #42  
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There are too many people waving the white flag of surrender, determined to see the worst in everything and to make certain everyone else does too. Thank God there are those in the UK with the backbone to see this through despite the best efforts of the whingers and hand wringers.
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Old 22 October 2016, 01:53 PM
  #43  
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There's nothing good to see, you were conned plain and simple, shame you don't have the backbone to admit it.
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Old 22 October 2016, 02:00 PM
  #44  
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None of us, including politicians, journalists and economists know what the eventual outcome will be. Those doom and gloom merchants the remoaners are just seeing the negative propaganda. Anyone making plans or changing their thoughts or recruitment processes due to the "uncertainty" would have just as much reason to recruit based on the UK's ability to trade with whoever we want in future. Its only people panicking that devalues the pound.

According to Newsnight EU politicians are trying to persuade us not to leave, we are a major player after all. Perhaps if we were offered better terms and regulations it wouldn't need to happen.

As for Germany, well BMW may be a major player at the moment. But that could all change if its at all true that Gergman lawmakers want to ban the internal combustion engine being produced in the future ....
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entr...b01fa2b9055c11
Add to this just how fast Tesla are growing and the Model 3 taking unprecedented amounts of pre orders, who's going to buy a gas guzzling 3 series or A4 when a 4 door electric car will probably be available for under 40grand.

Can Germany afford not to deal with us or at least put pressure on to make a deal with us as lucrative for us as possible.
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Old 22 October 2016, 02:11 PM
  #45  
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Originally Posted by Paben View Post
How so? The German government certainly can't ignore its vehicle manufacturers even though they, the manufacturers, can't have any final say in the final outcome. And if some no account countries like Latvia, Croatia or Luxembourg, just to name a few of the EU hangers on, decide to put the trade boot in to the UK then doesn't this just confirm that we really should have no part of such an imbalanced community?
well I thought it was sort of obvious

but here goes

it shows the reality - and the reality is that you have to get an agreement that is agreeable to all 27 nations - each one has a veto

that it wont be easy / quick - and the German Car industry won't run the negotiations in there self interest even though they may try - the EU simply does not work like that

I am sure BMW and the German car industry will make there views known - so will Poland and the Eastern European states over "free movement"


so will all the other EU states that will all have their individual negotiation points

I have no doubt that a "deal" will be done (with Canada and the UK)

but imv it will be a fudge - and ultimately will leave the UK in a worse position


and the argument that the EU will be mean to us - so we are best of out, is a moronic cop out argument, that Donald Trump would be ashamed of

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Old 22 October 2016, 02:17 PM
  #46  
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Originally Posted by Norman Dog View Post
True enough. Bet that doesn't happen with the City of London.
they are already putting forward options that will exempt the city /financial services

as I said earlier the 350 Million saving may well go to subsidise the bankers in the city to continue access / passporting rights
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Old 22 October 2016, 02:42 PM
  #47  
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Originally Posted by hodgy0_2 View Post
well I thought it was sort of obvious

but here goes

it shows the reality - and the reality is that you have to get an agreement that is agreeable to all 27 nations - each one has a veto

that it wont be easy / quick - and the German Car industry won't run the negotiations in there self interest even though they may try - the EU simply does not work like that

I am sure BMW and the German car industry will make there views known - so will Poland and the Eastern European states over "free movement"


so will all the other EU states that will all have their individual negotiation points

I have no doubt that a "deal" will be done (with Canada and the UK)

but imv it will be a fudge - and ultimately will leave the UK in a worse position


and the argument that the EU will be mean to us - so we are best of out, is a moronic cop out argument, that Donald Trump would be ashamed of

Moronic eh? So you believe that the many no-hoper members of the EU (who ought never to have been elected to membership in the first place) should be able to stymie sound agreements just because they can? The UK leaving the EU means it can deal with whomsoever it wishes without the disproportionate influence of the hangers on being brought to bear on the outcome. We will have to await the outcome of the negotiations with the EU, but please keep any patronising responses in that respect to yourself.
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Old 22 October 2016, 03:01 PM
  #48  
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Originally Posted by dpb View Post
Looks like Nissan planning build another car here !
I hope it's better than the 2016 Qashqai!
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Old 22 October 2016, 04:25 PM
  #49  
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Originally Posted by Paben View Post
Moronic eh? So you believe that the many no-hoper members of the EU (who ought never to have been elected to membership in the first place) should be able to stymie sound agreements just because they can? The UK leaving the EU means it can deal with whomsoever it wishes without the disproportionate influence of the hangers on being brought to bear on the outcome. We will have to await the outcome of the negotiations with the EU, but please keep any patronising responses in that respect to yourself.
lol, you make it sound like we can't trade with anyone else but the EU

so we need to leave the EU
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Old 22 October 2016, 05:22 PM
  #50  
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Originally Posted by hodgy0_2 View Post
lol, you make it sound like we can't trade with anyone else but the EU

so we need to leave the EU

Either you can't read or I can't, or perhaps it's your strange sentence spacing that confuses me. Within the EU our ability to trade with the rest of the world has been limited, hence little progress with India, China, Australia, Brazil etc. With the UK out of the EU that will change dramatically, also we will no longer be lumbered with the propping up of the majority of the EU.
Perhaps when the EU collapses, as it surely will, the prosperous countries can regenerate it and do the job properly next time round. I'm not hopeful though.
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Old 22 October 2016, 06:08 PM
  #51  
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Originally Posted by Paben View Post
Within the EU our ability to trade with the rest of the world has been limited, hence little progress with India, China, .
really, how come Germany is able to pretty successfully

and explain EXACTLY how is it limited
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Old 22 October 2016, 06:16 PM
  #52  
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Originally Posted by hodgy0_2 View Post
really, how come Germany is able to pretty successfully

and explain EXACTLY how is it limited
It's not, but now we can spend load of cash establishing and maintaining the same deal ourselves. That's the sort of thing that makes politicians happy, what a con.
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Old 22 October 2016, 06:24 PM
  #53  
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Originally Posted by Paben View Post
Either you can't read or I can't, or perhaps it's your strange sentence spacing that confuses me. Within the EU our ability to trade with the rest of the world has been limited, hence little progress with India, China, Australia, Brazil etc. With the UK out of the EU that will change dramatically, also we will no longer be lumbered with the propping up of the majority of the EU.
Perhaps when the EU collapses, as it surely will, the prosperous countries can regenerate it and do the job properly next time round. I'm not hopeful though.
Sorry, but that's just so woefully misinformed, it's hard to decide where to begin. The only thing that's been limited within the EU is our ability to negotiate trade deals with the places you've mentioned. That doesn't mean we've had no trade with those places, far from it, and in actual fact, a far larger proportion of the world's international trade overall occurs between countries or regional blocks that don't have trade agreements between them than between countries/blocks that do. What Brexit comes down to then is simple bread and butter economics - will the overall cost of us leaving the EU, whether that be in regards to less-favourable trading or other terms with the EU itself, or the reduction in purchasing power of the pound for our imports, or the reduction in inward investment from companies who already had or planned to setup here specifically as a forward base into the EU be outweighed by any hypothetical gains that can be achieved by successfully negotiating trade agreements with places like India, China, etc. Crystal ***** aside, you'll probably find strong clues to how that question will eventually get answered by looking at the difference in pro-Brexit rhetoric pre and post the actual referendum vote, specifically in how there's been a noticeable shift from a "how much we stand to gain" position, to one of "there's no reason why we can't break even, if we play our cards right".
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Old 22 October 2016, 06:46 PM
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Originally Posted by JackClark View Post
It's not, but now we can spend load of cash establishing and maintaining the same deal ourselves. That's the sort of thing that makes politicians happy, what a con.
presumably the extra costs involved in shipping our stuff to China, India Australia - well we simply say that they have to pay those additional costs

we will simply make that a condition of the free trade deal we strike (and make no mistake it will be a freer trade deal than the free one we have just left )

how can you get a "freer" trade deal than an already free trade deal - well you obviously don't understand !!!!!

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Old 22 October 2016, 06:48 PM
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Originally Posted by hodgy0_2 View Post
presumably the extra costs involved in shipping our stuff to China, India Australia - well we simply say that they have to pay those additional costs

we will simply make that a condition of the free trade deal we strike (and make no mistake it will be a freer trade in than the free one we have just left )

how can you get a "freer" trade deal than an already free trade deal - well you obviously don't understand !!!!!
No I mean the hoards of staff that we'll need to establish and mantain trade deals we already had.
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Old 22 October 2016, 06:49 PM
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Originally Posted by JackClark View Post
No I mean the hoards of staff that we'll need to establish and mantain trade deals we already had.
oh yeah there is that of course

the massive administrative overhead in it all
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Old 22 October 2016, 06:56 PM
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Originally Posted by hodgy0_2 View Post
oh yeah there is that of course

the massive administrative overhead in it all
We can just move some money from health to cover it. 350m should do. 👍😀
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Old 23 October 2016, 11:03 AM
  #58  
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Originally Posted by Paben View Post
There are too many people waving the white flag of surrender, determined to see the worst in everything and to make certain everyone else does too. Thank God there are those in the UK with the backbone to see this through despite the best efforts of the whingers and hand wringers.
Easily said if you don't have to deal with the consequences.

Incidentally, can anyone name anything we'd actually export to Australia?
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Old 23 October 2016, 11:12 AM
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Originally Posted by neil-h View Post
Easily said if you don't have to deal with the consequences.

Incidentally, can anyone name anything we'd actually export to Australia?

Oh poor you, it's so unfair so have a good whinge as that always helps in any situation.
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Old 23 October 2016, 11:12 AM
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Originally Posted by neil-h View Post
Easily said if you don't have to deal with the consequences.

Incidentally, can anyone name anything we'd actually export to Australia?
Vegimite?
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